Phillies: 2020’s reloading with 3 top arms

HOUSTON, TEXAS - OCTOBER 10: Gerrit Cole #45 of the Houston Astros pitches during Game 5 of the ALDS against the Tampa Bay Rays at Minute Maid Park on October 10, 2019 in Houston, Texas. Houston advances with a 6-1 win. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)
HOUSTON, TEXAS - OCTOBER 10: Gerrit Cole #45 of the Houston Astros pitches during Game 5 of the ALDS against the Tampa Bay Rays at Minute Maid Park on October 10, 2019 in Houston, Texas. Houston advances with a 6-1 win. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images) /
facebooktwitterreddit
Prev
4 of 4
Next
Phillies
Harris is a setup man who can handle critical innings before the ninth for the Phillies. Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images. /

The Numerical Bible:  

This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.

Phillies 2020 competitive-balance threshold of $208 million:

  • Estimates beginning at $191.1 million AAV.
  • Hernandez: -$11.8 million via trade for $179.3 million AAV.
  • Herrera: -$6.1 million via trade for $173.2 million AAV.
  • Franco: -$6.7 million via non-tender for $166.5 million AAV.
  • Parker: -$4.7 million via free agency for $161.8 million AAV.
  • Morin: -$1.2 million via free agency for $160.6 million AAV.
  • Gosselin: -$0.7 million via free agency for $159.9 million AAV.
  • Neshek: -$6.25 million via free agency for $153.65 million AAV.
  • Vargas: -$6 million via free agency for $147.65 million AAV.
  • Hughes: -$2.75 million via free agency for $144.9 million AAV.
  • $208 million AAV minus $144.9 million AAV equals $63.1 million AAV.

Phillies targets’ statistical results toward 75-80 percent:  

  • Hudson: 47 good, 7 so-so and 15 bad (1 blowup) out of 69 total for 78.3%
    With Washington: 17 good, 3 so-so and 4 bad (0 blowups) out of 24 total for 83.3%
  • Harris: 54 good, 6 so-so and 8 bad (0 blowups) out of 68 total for 88.2%
  • A blowup is 4 ER for less than 2 innings or 3 ER for less than 1 inning.

Phillies targets’ 2019 stats: 

Hudson, 32.5:

  • Total: 69 Gms. (1 opener), 73 Inn., a 2.47 ERA, 8 Saves, 11 Holds, a 3.97 FIP, a 5.08 xFIP, a 4.31 SIERA, a 0.9 fWAR and a 1.14 WHIP.
    Nationals: 24 Gms., 25 Inn., a 1.44 ERA, 6 Saves, 3 Holds and a 0.88 WHIP.
  • Harris, 35: 68 Gms., 60 Inn., a 1.50 ERA, 4 Saves, 26 Holds, a 3.15 FIP, a 3.04 xFIP, a 3.18 SIERA, a 1.1 fWAR and a 0.93 WHIP.
  • Cole, 29: 33 Gms., 212 1/3 Inn., 20-5, a 2.50 ERA, a 2.64 FIP, a 2.48 xFIP, a 2.62 SIERA, a 7.4 fWAR and a 0.89 WHIP.
  • Odorizzi, 29.5: 30 Gms., 159 Inn., 15-7, a 3.51 ERA, a 3.36 FIP, a 4.33 xFIP, a 4.14 SIERA, a 4.3 fWAR and a 1.21 WHIP.

Next. Phillies: Route to acquire Gerrit Cole for 2020. dark

If you have any questions or opinions regarding Gerrit Cole or Philadelphia Phillies players, please open the comments section.