World Series: Gambling Considerations for Game 7

The last MLB game of the 2019 season will crown a Champion and offers You a chance to line your pockets.  

For Nationals and Astros fans, everything is on the line, for the 28 other fan bases, we want a good game but maybe you want to be invested in a different way.  What follows are my thoughts on some of the lines for tonight.

Odds and lines are courtesy of The Action Network.

Washington Nationals (+120) – Houston Astros (-140)

The Astros are the better team on paper however, the Nationals have been every bit equal on their journey to the World Series.

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The public money is on the side of the Nationals in this game.  Part of this is betters on an Astros World Series victory are hedging on the Nats side.  The other side of that coin is Max Scherzer gives the Nats the better starting pitcher in the matchup.  Even though Max Scherzer got scratched from Game 5 against Gerrit Cole, its hard to bet against Mad Max after the Black Eye Game or after he took down Cole in Game 1 of the series on Houston’s home turf.  The Nationals have been backed into a corner against Josh Hader, the Dodgers, and the Astros on multiple occasions.  Tonight, I bet there will be one last display of Nats magic.

Pick: Nationals +120

Run Total 7.5 Over (-115)  / Under (-105) 

Using the DFS projections from SaberSim, if you add up the runs column you get a line favoring the Astros 4.83 to the Nationals 4.26.  We can debate merits and intricacies of projection systems all off-season but betting the Over seems like the best play tonight.  The Over has hit in 5/6 games this World Series despite featuring two rotations with 6 elite starting pitchers and serviceable relievers (in the Nats case, those starters).

Pick: Over

Scherzer 6.5 Strikeouts Over (+124) / Under (-161)

Going back to the SaberSim projections mentioned earlier, they project Scherzer to rack up 6.8 strikeouts which is just a hair over.  Obviously there is no .8 of a strikeout to be had.  Last night, Strasburg was projected to be under 6.5 but he wound up with the over.  The main concern is will his neck allow him to pitch deep into the game.  Regardless, I expect everyone to be jacked up in this game which could lead to pressing on both sides.  Advantage Scherzer.

Pick: Over 6.5

Those are the picks if you don’t have any rooting interest other than chaos tonight, these picks should give you plenty to cheer for on the side.  Buena Suerte!