Now that Yoshitomo Tsutsugo is set to be posted, the inevitable comparisons will begin to role in. One of those, Kyle Schwarber, is just not realistic.
Now that Yoshitomo Tsutsugo is set to be posted in the coming weeks, it is inevitable that experts will look to find a major league player that he is comparable to. Given Tsutsugo’s impressive power in Japan, patience, and possible strikeout issues, He has a fairly interesting profile.
It is also a profile that would fit quite a few other players in the majors. However, Tsutsugo has drawn comparisons to one of those players in particular – Kyle Schwarber.
Add another name to this winter's free agent crop: Japanese star Yoshitomo Tsutsugo will be posted in November, sources tell ESPN. The 27-year-old left-handed hitter is a 1B/LF. Perhaps best comp: Kyle Schwarber. With Yokohama, he consistently has posted near-.400 OBP with power.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) October 29, 2019
The parallels are there. Schwarber has tremendous power, the willingness to draw a walk, and occasional strikeout issues. While Tsutsugo has had success in Japan in regards to making contact, it is expected that he will have strikeout issues in the majors. And, both players are questionable defensively, with Tsutsugo seemingly a better fit at first or as a designated hitter than in the outfield.
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However, that comparison may not be fair – to Schwarber. He does sort of fit the Three True Outcomes profile, but over the years, Schwarber has begun to emerge as a more complete player on offense. His production last season, where he had a .250/.339/.531 batting line with 38 homers and 29 doubles, marked the third consecutive season where his OPS has improved.
Schwarber also made strides in regards to his contact rate. While he still drew a high amount of walks, he also struck out in just 25.6% of his plate appearances, the best rate of his career. At just 27 years old when the 2020 season begins, Schwarber has made the adjustments he needed to make.
Meanwhile, the jury is still out as to what type of major league player Tsutsugo could be. His 2019 performance, where he had a relatively disappointing .272/.388/.511 batting line, hitting 29 homers and 24 doubles. His .899 OPS was his worst since 2013, while his 25.3% strikeout rate was the worst of any of his full seasons. Tsutsugo also had a dip in power last year along with those other declining metrics.
There is also the concerning track record of hitters that have come over from Japan. Out of the ten best Japanese players based on bWAR, only two, Ichiro Suzuki and Hideki Matsui, were not pitchers. If the list is extended to 20 players, then two other players who were strictly hitters are added. Dave Roberts is also on the list, but was born on a military base.
It is possible that Yoshitomo Tsutsugo becomes a star in the major leagues. But to say that he is another Kyle Schwarber at this point is premature.