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Phillies: Promises made to Joe Girardi for 2020

By Tal Venada

The Phillies will count on Girardi to pilot them. Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images.
The Phillies will count on Girardi to pilot them. Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. /
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Odorizzi could be a solid addition to the Phillies rotation. Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images. /

Two, not one:       

If the Phillies have the interest, lefty Madison Bumgarner has a reported estimate of $18 million per season, but his 2019 stats indicate a drop off from a 3.26 ERA to a 3.90 ERA.  For 34 starts, he fired 207 2/3 frames last summer with a 9-9 record. Declining or an off-year?

As for Zack Wheeler, he’s been up-and-down. To illustrate, he had a career-best 3.32 ERA in ’18. In ’19, he had a 3.96 ERA with an 11-8 mark for 195 1/3 frames. But are Wheeler and Bumgarner now mid-rotation arms?

Potential Phillies targets:

  • Cole, 29: $220 million for 8 yrs. with a $27.5 million AAV.
  • Strasburg, 31: $140 million for 6 yrs. with a $23.3 million AAV.
  • Ryu, 32.5: $54 million for 3 yrs. with an $18 million AAV.
  • Bumgarner, 30: $54 million for 3 yrs. with an $18 million AAV.
  • Wheeler, 29.5: $75 million for 5 yrs. with a $15 million AAV.
  • Odorizzi: 29.5: $60 million for 4 yrs. with a $15 million AAV.
  • Hamels, 35.5: $30 million for 2 yrs. with a $15 million AAV.
  • Kuechel, 31.5: $40 million for 3 yrs. with a $13.3 million AAV.

Compensating for the AL to NL differential, Jake Odorizzi‘s 3.51 AL ERA equals a 3.01 NL ERA. In fact, Odorizzi had similar results in 2015 and 2016. So, he’s a two-slot hurler who could fit between Aaron Nola and Wheeler with Jake Arrieta and Zach Eflin rounding out the staff.

In ’16, Cole Hamels was an ace, but three consecutive 162s at a 3.78 ERA or higher are his recent numbers. Realistically, he’s a third-rung moundsman who went 7-7 in 27 outings with a 3.81 ERA for 141 2/3 innings. Translation: He’ll get $30 million for two campaigns, but he’ll ask for three.

For their last dominant season, Doc Halladay was 33. Cliff Lee was 35, and Roy Oswalt was 33. Therefore, Hamels will be 36 and could be out of bullets in spring training or 2021.

Portsider Dallas Keuchel went 8-8 with a 3.75 ERA: 19 performances for 112 2/3 frames. Now, he’s a year older but has no qualifying offer to hinder a signing before December’s end.  Plus he’ll probably accept a $40 million commitment for three summers. To sum up, the Fightins could ink two $15 million AAV hurlers.

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