Phillies: Promises made to Joe Girardi for 2020
During the hiring process, the Phillies indicated their expectations of acquiring 2019’s missing pieces to their new manager: Pitching is at the top of general manager Matt Klentak’s wish list to accomplish prior to December’s end.
Management’s players:
Every November, the Philadelphia Phillies faithful have beliefs on roster construction, but many are not alike. And because armchair GMs have no major league rules, no financial restrictions and no competition, they effortlessly have surefire no-brainers. Unfortunately, execs don’t!
IN OTHER WORDS: “Adhering to budgeting rules shouldn’t trump good decision-making.” – Emily Oster
In a job interview, the applicant must demonstrate why he is the right man to be the skipper, and the franchise must sell the prospective employee on joining their organization. So, what did the Fightins specifically project to Joe Girardi for his acceptance to lead the team in ’20?
As for Klentak, he’s the point man in their three-pronged decision-making: He does the legwork with his contemporaries and player’s agents. But he has dollar limits higher-ups must sign off on, which is probably in the $50 million range: my best guess. No, they don’t reveal that amount to any writer.
By comparison, president Andy MacPhail likely has a $100 million ceiling. Remember, he indicated in July they’ll need more pieces to reach the Fall Classic: 2020’s goal? Regarding deals, though, Klentak probably mentions some details of potential trades and free-agent asking prices informally even if they are in his wheelhouse.
Atop the front office, managing partner John S. Middleton had previously allowed MacPhail and Klentak to handle all baseball moves except for those big-ticket superstars. However, he is unhappy with the Phils’ 2019 performance and overrode them by hiring Girardi: They favored their former O’s manager Buck Showalter.
Girardi is among the skippers who can make a difference of five games in the win column. So, he would have had 86 victories in ’19: an 86-76 record. And he’ll do much better with rotation and bullpen improvements. Plus he wants to win without wearing out his welcome like Showalter has done in his past.
For what it’s worth, assurances are basically promises. Did the execs cover scenarios for two solid starters and/or one ace plus a bottom-slot hurler? In the pen, are their plans depending on rotation pick-ups or a critical-inning fireman? And a tell of 2020’s approach is Bryce Harper‘s AAV (average annual value) of $25.4 million.
Top of the rotation:
While Gerrit Cole is atop the Phillies wish list for starters, Scott Boras is his agent. In fact, Cole wore a Boras Corporation cap when he announced his unemployment status after the seventh game. Yes, he knew GMs had their eyes on him, and he wore an implied message on his head.
Cole wants to top the $217 million pact David Price received for seven seasons. However, free agency has changed with so many deep-pocketed clubs at or slightly over the competitive-balance threshold. Like Harper, the stud will probably receive a Phils’ AAV-type offer of $220 million over eight summers ($27.5 million AAV).
While Stephen Strasburg has opted out with $100 million ($40 million deferred) remaining on his contract, he is reportedly negotiating a new deal with the Washington Nationals. But keep in mind, Anthony Rendon turned down the Nats’ offer of $210-215 million for seven 162s. So, is Strasburg’s opting out a strategic re-signing?
Concerning the right-hander’s 33 outings, he went 18-6 with a 3.32 ERA for 209 frames. And he added a World Series MVP trophy to his hardware. That stated, some feel the Fightins will pursue him rather than Cole. In both cases, though, Boras will drag things out until February but might use a Strasburg pact to up Cole’s price.
Potential Phillies targets:
- Cole, 29: $220 million for 8 yrs. with a $27.5 million AAV.
- Strasburg, 31: $140 million for 6 yrs. with a $23.3 million AAV.
- Ryu, 32.5: $54 million for 3 yrs. with an $18 million AAV.
Southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu could balance the top of the red pinstripes’ five-man staff, and price-wise he may sign for $18 million AAV for three campaigns. In ’19, however, he had a career year with 29 opportunities: a 14-5 mark with a 2.32 ERA for 182 2/3 innings. But he only made 68 starts for 2017-2019.
Two, not one:
If the Phillies have the interest, lefty Madison Bumgarner has a reported estimate of $18 million per season, but his 2019 stats indicate a drop off from a 3.26 ERA to a 3.90 ERA. For 34 starts, he fired 207 2/3 frames last summer with a 9-9 record. Declining or an off-year?
As for Zack Wheeler, he’s been up-and-down. To illustrate, he had a career-best 3.32 ERA in ’18. In ’19, he had a 3.96 ERA with an 11-8 mark for 195 1/3 frames. But are Wheeler and Bumgarner now mid-rotation arms?
Potential Phillies targets:
- Cole, 29: $220 million for 8 yrs. with a $27.5 million AAV.
- Strasburg, 31: $140 million for 6 yrs. with a $23.3 million AAV.
- Ryu, 32.5: $54 million for 3 yrs. with an $18 million AAV.
- Bumgarner, 30: $54 million for 3 yrs. with an $18 million AAV.
- Wheeler, 29.5: $75 million for 5 yrs. with a $15 million AAV.
- Odorizzi: 29.5: $60 million for 4 yrs. with a $15 million AAV.
- Hamels, 35.5: $30 million for 2 yrs. with a $15 million AAV.
- Kuechel, 31.5: $40 million for 3 yrs. with a $13.3 million AAV.
Compensating for the AL to NL differential, Jake Odorizzi‘s 3.51 AL ERA equals a 3.01 NL ERA. In fact, Odorizzi had similar results in 2015 and 2016. So, he’s a two-slot hurler who could fit between Aaron Nola and Wheeler with Jake Arrieta and Zach Eflin rounding out the staff.
In ’16, Cole Hamels was an ace, but three consecutive 162s at a 3.78 ERA or higher are his recent numbers. Realistically, he’s a third-rung moundsman who went 7-7 in 27 outings with a 3.81 ERA for 141 2/3 innings. Translation: He’ll get $30 million for two campaigns, but he’ll ask for three.
For their last dominant season, Doc Halladay was 33. Cliff Lee was 35, and Roy Oswalt was 33. Therefore, Hamels will be 36 and could be out of bullets in spring training or 2021.
Portsider Dallas Keuchel went 8-8 with a 3.75 ERA: 19 performances for 112 2/3 frames. Now, he’s a year older but has no qualifying offer to hinder a signing before December’s end. Plus he’ll probably accept a $40 million commitment for three summers. To sum up, the Fightins could ink two $15 million AAV hurlers.
Other options:
With eight starters available, the Phillies decision-makers will ink one or two, and Middleton probably felt comfortable assuring Girardi they’d come through. But keep in mind, the competition’s organizational AAV amounts are now changing due to non-tenders and declined options: club, mutual, and player.
Yes, the red pinstripes have a narrow path to acquire either Cole or Strasburg, but Middleton has experience with Harper and Arrieta of waiting Boras out. Plus Strasburg may want to complete an agreement by January’s end and report to camp with pitchers and catchers.
With Cole and Strasburg on the free-agent market, the Phils have two chances of getting one or the other. But inking Strasburg could allow them to pick up two relievers instead of one.
Regarding the competition, some GMs will offer $120 million for three years or be willing to overpay in dollars and/or length. Yes, the New York Yankees will be in on many of these hurlers, but they don’t want to exceed the Luxury Tax threshold of $208 million. So they’ll probably target the ones in the middle to fill one spot.
What do president Andrew Friedman of the Los Angeles Dodgers, president Farhan Zaidi of the San Francisco Giants, and new vice president Chaim Bloom of the Boston Red Sox have in common? All three were successful execs with the Tampa Bay Rays on a $65-75 million annual budget.
To sum up, Middleton and Girardi want to win now, not 2021. Plus there are plenty of available free-agent starters, and Klentak will have a maximum of $63.1 million in his make or-break campaign to hit the $208 million mark. But would Middleton sign off on $213 million plus a $1 million tax for a solid shot at glory? Possibly!
The Numerical Bible:
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This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
Phillies right-handed targets:
- Cole, 29: 33 Gms., 212 1/3 Inn., 20-5, a 2.50 ERA, a 2.64 FIP, a 2.48 xFIP, a 2.62 SIERA, a 7.4 fWAR and a 0.89 WHIP.
- Strasburg, 31: 33 Gms., 209 Inn., 18-6, a 3.32 ERA, a 3.25 FIP, a 3.17 xFIP, a 3.49 SIERA, a 5.7 fWAR and a 1.04 WHIP.
- Odorizzi, 29.5: 30 Gms., 159 Inn., 15-7, a 3.51 ERA, a 3.36 FIP, a 4.33 xFIP, a 4.14 SIERA, a 4.3 fWAR and a 1.21 WHIP.
- Wheeler, 29.5: 31 Gms., 195 1/3 Inn., 11-8, a 3.96 ERA, a 3.48 FIP, a 4.06 xFIP, a 4.20 SIERA, a 4.7 fWAR and a 1.26 WHIP.
Phillies southpaw targets:
- Ryu, 32.5: 29 Gms., 182 2/3 Inn., 14-5, a 2.32 ERA, a 3.10 FIP, a 3.32 xFIP, a 3.77 SIERA, a 4.8 fWAR and a 1.01 WHIP.
- Bumgarner, 30: 34 Gms., 207 2/3 Inn., 9-9, a 3.90 ERA, a 3.90 FIP, a 4.31 xFIP, a 4.15 SIERA, a 3.2 fWAR and a 1.13 WHIP.
- Hamels, 35.5: 27 Gms., 141 2/3 Inn., 7-7, a 3.81 ERA, a 4.09 FIP, a 4.38 xFIP, a 4.55 SIERA, a 2.5 fWAR and a 1.39 WHIP.
- Keuchel, 31.5: 19 Gms., 112 2/3 Inn., 8-8, a 3.75 ERA, a 4.72 FIP, a 4.06 xFIP, a 4.39 SIERA, a 0.8 fWAR and a 1.37 WHIP.
Next. Phillies: 2020's reloading with 3 top arms. dark
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