MLB Free Agents: Top 25 players up for grabs

The rise to prominence of several players during 2020 has intensified interest in this winter’s list of available MLB free agents.

If you are a major league front office executive or a player without a current contract, life is about to get extremely interesting.

On Monday, teams extended qualifying offers to 10 players. Those 10 now have 10 days to decide whether to accept or reject those offers. If they reject the offers, they become MLB free agents, and any team signing them loses a draft choice.

If recent history is any indication, the functional signing period is likely to continue virtually up to opening day. That may particularly be the case for the major free agent names, of which there are several this season.

That’s what happened last year with the top free agents, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. Starter Dallas Keuchel and closer Craig Kimbrel lingered even longer, neither signing until June.

Until recently, the current free agent crop was being assessed as subpar. That perception, however, is changing with the 2019 accession to the stardom of several free agents, including Anthony Rendon, Gerrit Cole, Nicholas Castellanos, Jake Odorizzi, and Avisail Garcia. Keuchel, who finally signed a one-year deal with the Atlanta Braves, is back on the market. So, for a third consecutive season, is third baseman Mike Moustakas, late of the Milwaukee Brewers.

Who are the top free agent prospects? What follows is an assessment of the pluses and minuses of 25 likely to draw the most, or the highest dollar, interest this winter. Some – like Cole, Rendon and Stephen Strasburg – are prime talents. Others are likely to be more of interest to bargain-basement shoppers willing to sign a bit older player who’s willing to sign for fewer years and/or less money.

The one quality all 25 share is the potential to help their new teams during the 2020 season.

Top 25 MLB Free Agents

Nos. 23 through 25

Cole Hamels (25) had a curious season for the Cubs, raising a question of whether he has reached the end of his career. Hamels, who will be 36 next season, was superb through July 1. In 17 starts he posted a 6-3 record with a sub. 3.00 ERA. But after sitting out July with an injury, Hamels returned to fumble through the season’s final two months.  In August and September, his 10 starts resulted in a 1-4 record and 5.79 ERA. So a team signing Hamels has to ask whether it’s signing the April-June pitcher or the August-September pitcher.

Will Smith (24) is near the top of the line among free-agent relievers. There are two drawbacks: He got a qualifying offer, costing any signing team a draft pick, and he’s 35. But age and experience are often attractions for a reliever, especially one not after a mega-closer deal. Smith was a standout in the Giants pen, going 6-0 with 34 saves in 63 appearances and making the All-Star team.  If Smith insists on a multi-year deal, that could be problematic to teams, given his age; but he’s at least worth talking to.

The Astros lost confidence in Wade Miley (23), so much so that they left him their post-season roster entirely. After a 13-4 record through August, Miley managed only 11 and one-third innings in five September starts, giving up 21 earned runs. That’s a 16.72 ERA.  There’s no reason to believe that Miley was injured, so his September collapse can probably be safely viewed as one of those weird stretches that a full off-season might fix. It certainly decreased his asking price, but that’s another good reason for a team seeking pitching help to go after him. How many teams are seeking pitching help? Basically all of them.

Top 25 MLB Free Agents

Nos. 17 through 19

Speaking of post-season boosts, Daniel Hudson (19) went from being an afterthought trade deadline pickup in July to delivering the final pitch of the 2019 World Series. With the Nationals, Hudson recorded a half dozen saves in 14 appearances following his acquisition from Toronto, then added four more post-season saves.  A 33-year-old veteran, he is probably the top available right-handed reliever.

In a slim market for catchers, interest in Robinson Chirinos (18) could only have been spiked by his post-season showing.  Chirinos only hit.238 for the Astros, but that was no surprise. He’s a career .234 hitter whose chops have always primarily been made defensively, which is exactly what teams are emphasizing in their catching these days. As for his game-calling skills, isn’t handling Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke enough of an endorsement?

Atlanta’s decision to pass on the $12 million team option it held on veteran starter Julio Teheran (17) puts him on the open pitching market. With a career 77-73 record, Teheran may no longer have front-end potential, but he made 33 starts in 2019 with a 3.81 ERA, stats that ought to be of at least conversational interest to several teams. His 119 ERA+ suggests he still has above-average desirability, so all we’re really talking about here is cash.

Top 25 MLB Free Agents

Nos. 14 through 16

Following an up-and-down career on Chicago’s South Side, Avisail Garcia (16) appeared to find himself in Tampa Bay. Playing on a one-year, bargain-basement $3,5 million deal, he helped the Rays to the AL wild card – and then to the division series – delivering a .282 average, 20 home runs, 72 RBIs and a 111 OPS+. That uptick came just in time to enhance his profile for the 2020 market.

The Yankees this week let Didi Gregorius (15) hit the market, instantly making him the top available shortstop. In a half-season following his return from an injury, Gregorius hit just .238 but did deliver some power in the form of 16 home runs.  He’ll only be 30 next season, leaving open the possibility of a multi-year deal with a team in need of mid-infield support. Gregorius’s problem is there aren’t many contenders in need of mid-infield help, so he may be shopping in the bargain aisle.

Yasmani Grandal (14) walked away from a mutual option with the Brewers, his for $16 million. Given his 28 home runs and 119 OPS+, Grandal is the best offensive performer on the market. His catching credentials are acceptable if not great, and he is considered among the game’s better pitch framers. At 31, he’s a candidate for a multi-year deal.

Top 25 MLB Free Agents

Nos. 11 through 13

Mike Moustakas (13) can write the book on bad free agent experiences. In each of the past two seasons, Moustakas waited in frustration for the Milwaukee Brewers eventually to sign him. He hasn’t lost his enthusiasm for the market; Moustakas last week declined an $11million mutual option to take his chances a third time. Entering his age 32 season and coming off a 35-homer 2019, Moustakas is considered at least a capable fielder…so all we’re really talking about is dollars and years, right?

Dallas Keuchel (12) probably didn’t enjoy his 2019 free-agent experience much, either.  Unsigned until June, he went 8-8 with a 3.75 ERA once the Braves gave him a $13 million contract. While Keuchel was hardly All-Star material following his return, he still made 19 starts and his numbers translated to a 121 ERA+. The question then becomes whether Keuchel and any interested teams can agree on terms that would get him into a spring training camp.

Jake Odorizzi (11) blossomed in his age 29 season, producing a 15-7 record in 30 starts for the Twins. He’s likely to be looking for a significant upgrade from his $9.5 million deal of 2019 along with some length. The Twins also attached a qualifying offer to Odorizzi. At the same time, he’s likely to be viewed as a bargain compared with Cole or Strasburg. Nobody’s putting him in Cole’s class, but his 131 ERA+ is in line with Strasburg’s 135, and it’s notably better than higher-profile free-agent pitchers such as Zack Wheeler and Madison Bumgarner.

Top 25 MLB Free Agents

Nos. 9-10

On the South Side, the operating assumption is that the White Sox will work out a deal that extends Jose Abreu (10), who has spent his entire six-season career In the middle of the White Sox lineup.

Since signing with them as a free agent from Cuba, Abreu has delivered 179 home runs – that’s 30 per season – and 611 RBI. A 2019 team-leading 123 home runs, 33 home runs and the perception that he provides invaluable leadership suggests he’s not slowing down. His All-Star Game selection was his third.

In the event Abreu does decline both the Sox’ qualifying offer and any extension, the draft pick any signing team would lose could slow interest in him somewhat. Still, that power and productivity are prototypes at first base.

And it’s not as if Abreu is slowing down. He’s only topped 33 home runs once, that in his rookie 2014 season. His 123 RBIs were a personal best.

Madison Bumgarner’s (9) reputation as a clutch pitcher requires no explanation. His league-leading 34 starts in 2019 demonstrated that Bumgarner can still deliver innings, although his 3.90 ERA was a career-worst, and his 107 ERA+ was his lowest since 2014.

There was a point when it appeared the Giants might trade Bumgarner, eliminating the potential draft pick attachment. That would have enhanced Bumgarner’s market value. Bumgarner, too got a qualifying offer, potentially limiting his desirability. If he holds out for a premium deal, he could be a candidate for the kind of off-season icing that Dallas Keuchel went through last year. If he’s negotiable, Bumgarner should find work fairly quickly.

Top 25 MLB Free Agents

Nos. 7-8

Josh Donaldson (8) was one of the success stories of the 2019 post-season, justifying the one-year, $23 million deal the Braves gave him by rehabilitating his image. He hit 37 home runs, drove in 94, played a solid third base and most importantly did so without significant injury.

His age (34 next season) remains a liability, but if Donaldson is willing to talk about another short-term deal – maybe two years  — there’s every reason to believe he can help a 2020 contender.

Marcel Ozuna (7) will be an interesting case. He, too, got a qualifying offer from the Cardinals, meaning that any signing team will lose a draft pick. Teams hate that.

Ozuna had a productive, if not a huge, 2018 with a .280 batting average, 23 home runs, and 88 RBIs. He hit 29 home runs in 2019, but his average fell 40 points.

If you like Ozuna’s profile as a pure power hitter, the decline in average may not hurt his marketability. But if you valued him for his offensive versatility, Ozuna may have become too one-dimensional to justify the kind of big offer he expects.

He once was considered a defensive asset in left, but those days appear to be past. Still, even his minimalist profile as a late 20s power hitter ought to attract attention.

Top 25 MLB Free Agents

Nos. 5 and 6

Teams looking for pitching but incapable or unwilling to shop at the extreme top of the market – the Cole, Strasburg part – have places to look. Many will look toward Hyun-Jin Ryu (6).

A Cy Young Award finalists, Ryu appeared to be the likely winner through the first two-thirds of the season. Into early August, he stood 12-2 with a 1.45 ERA for the Dodgers. His mediocre finish – a 2-3 record and 5.40 ERA through his final seven starts – may cost him some free agency money. Ryu’s age – he’ll be 33 – may also hurt him.

Zack Wheeler (5) is the other viable front-line pitching alternative. Wheeler is entering free agency off an 11-8 2019 season for the New York Mets.

The Mets have extended Wheeler a qualifying offer, meaning that signing Wheeler will cost that team a draft choice. On the plus side, Wheeler is a young veteran (he’ll be 30 next year)  with a legit heater of the stripe that teams love to have.

There are risks involved, not least of which is the prospect that the market is collectively over-valuing Wheeler. He’s never won more than a dozen games, his 3.96 ERA is nothing to faint over, and his stats amounted to a 102 ERA+, labeling him barely better than average. Still, because it only takes two teams to drive a bidding war, expect Wheeler to get interest.

Top 25 MLB Free Agents

Nicholas Castellanos

No player enhanced his free-agent value this past season more than Nicholas Castellanos (4)…and he did it all in the final two months.

As a Detroit Tiger, Castellanos batted .273 with 11 home runs, a .328 on-base average, and a .462 slugging average, all solidly within the realm of average.

Then, traded to the contending Chicago Cubs, Castellanos showed MVP-level performance. In August and September, he delivered 21 doubles and 16 home runs, batted .321 with a .356 on-base average and .646 slugging average.

His OPS+ numbers are simultaneously instructive and confusing. He totaled 121…but that was pegged to 105 in Detroit and 151 in Chicago.

That may leave teams wondering which Castellanos they will get. The most hopeful explanation – and it’s a plausible one – is that Castellanos was inspired by the pennant race in a way that life in Detroit never could. If so, a contending team could net a front-line slugger.

One thing is beyond doubt: Castellanos is a far more valuable commodity today than he was on July 3.

If anything hurts Castellanos’ value, it’s his defense. The Cubs used him exclusively as a right fielder, where he was at best average. If he isn’t already DH material, he will be soon. Castellanos has been in the majors since 2014 and has yet to generate a positive defensive WAR.

Having said that, 58 doubles, a .289 average with .863 slugging – his season-long numbers — is worth something.

Top 25 MLB Free Agents

Stephen Strasburg

A lot of hopeful talk, not all of it political, flows from Washington. These days, some of it involves Stephen Strasburg’s (3) willingness to re-sign with the Nationals.

Only time will tell whether he does. But Strasburg on the open market is a mega-valuable entity. Notably,  he led the league in innings pitched in 2019, a fact that may stun those who reacted negatively to the way the Nats coddled his workload for his first several seasons.

If Strasburg is one thing, it’s a bonafide ace. Aside from the reliability of his workload, he won a league-leading 18 games, delivered a 3.32 earned run average, struck out 251 and produced a 138 ERA+.

So as the Nats line up their retention offer, they’ll be playing a high-stakes game with an unknown number of fellow bidders. Already, rumors are rampant that the Sam Diego Padres, where Strasburg played college ball, are positioning themselves to make a serious run.

Strasburg can settle all the mystery, of course, by affirming his intent to return to Washington. But until he does, the Nats are operating on the edge. They have two of the top MLB free agents available right now, and they need to retain one or both of them.  That could be very costly.

Top 25 MLB Free Agents

Anthony Rendon

Strasburg isn’t Washington’s only concern. Anthony Rendon (2) is also a free agent, and he’s coming off a post-season that did nothing to damage his marketability.

In fact, it’s not too much of a stretch to say that if post-season play was considered, Rendon would be the likely NL MVP selection. His regular-season numbers alone may net him that award; he hit. 319 with 34 home runs, 44 doubles, 126 RBIs and a stunning 153 OPS+.

He batted .330 in the post-season with a .590 slugging average.

Is Rendon the best third baseman in baseball today? The case can be made. The presumptive gold standard is Colorado’s Nolan Arenado, a seven-time gold glover. But as he demonstrated in the World Series, Rendon is no defensive slouch himself. And with the bat, Rendon beat Arenado in all three slash line entries as well as OPS+ and WAR.

The rumor mill has Texas making a big push for Rendon. It’s always hard to know how much of that early talk is fact-based, and how much as raw speculation based on a team’s financial profile, needs and a player’s perceived geographical preferences.

But if the Nationals want to retain both Strasburg and Rendon – each of whom will certainly command long-term commitments – they run the risk of handcuffing their own fiscal flexibility for the foreseeable future.

Top 25 MLB Free Agents

Gerrit Cole

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Consider how far Gerrit Cole (1) has come in the past couple of years. Two years ago, coming off a mediocre 12-12, 4.34 season for the Pirates, was turned loose for four players, none of them especially noteworthy today.

What Cole found in Houston made him into the star the Pirates always projected. In two seasons, both encompassing more than 200 innings of work, he has run up a 35-10 record with ERAs under 3.00 and an average of 300 strikeouts.

Cole’s 185 ERA+ was the season’s best, as was his 2.50 ERA.

His market will be naturally limited by cost; only a select number of teams have the flexibility to compete in Cole’s financial stratosphere. But that’s not a problem for Cole.

Houston Astros owner Jim Crane has said his team will ‘take a run’ at re-signing Cole, who is expected to haul in something well above $200 million, which would be a record for a pitcher.  David Price is working through a seven-year, $217 million deal that averages out to about $31 million a year, so that is probably a logical Cole target.

It also helps Cole that he will be 29 next season, one year younger than Price was when he signed that big deal with the Red Sox.