MLB Free Agents: 3 teams that could grab Cole Hamels

Set to turn 36-years-old next month, it could seem a bit surprising to see that Cole Hamels, will become one of several top MLB Free Agents.

Coming off a 7-year, $158 million deal that he originally signed with the Philadelphia Phillies back in 2013, Cole Hamels now joins a long list of MLB free agents.

A San Diego native and former 17th overall pick in the 2002 MLB Draft by the Philadelphia Phillies, Hamels has produced quite an impressive major league career, essentially a lock for 25-30 starts and 4 WAR during his prime years with the Phillies, from 2007-2015

Armed with an admittedly subpar low-90s fastball, Hamels has successfully maintained his velocity throughout his 13 seasons as a starter, leaning more on his filthy changeup, and for the last two seasons, an above-average cutter to get swings and misses.

In fact, according to FanGraphs‘ pitch value metric (runs-above-average), over the course of Hamels’ career, his changeup has averaged an incredible mark of 15.56 RAA.

Even better, since Hamels’ rookie season in 2006, he has the best-rated changeup (202.1 RAA) — measured by runs-above-average — in the majors (among all starters), 74.6 RAA better than the second-best pitcher, Felix Hernandez.

Other notable career rankings for Hamels since 2006, include 163 wins (8th in MLB), 2,691 innings pitched (2nd) and 51.7 WAR (t-5th). It’s safe to say Hamels has been a very good pitcher for quite a while now.

However, the eight-player deal that moved Hamels to the Texas Rangers in July of 2015 was the start of Hamels’ regression. No longer was he a consistent All-Star (2016 was his last AS game), but now more of a veteran innings-eater — though in 2015 he still managed to accrue 4.5 WAR between his time with the Phillies and Rangers.

His tenure in Arlington lasted just two in-a-half seasons, as Hamels was moved again at the trade deadline, this time the July deadline of 2018. His numbers in Texas (88 starts / 3.90 ERA) enticed the Chicago Cubs to take on Hamels’ contract plus some cash from the Rangers, as the Cubbies sent over Eddie Butler, a minor league pitcher, and a player to be named later.

Altogether in 2018, Hamels made 32 starts and finished with a strong 3.78 ERA — good for 2.2 WAR. Even at 34-years-old, the Cubs were impressed enough to pick up Hamels’ $20 million option for the 2019 season, though the uncertainty surrounding Yu Darvish could’ve also played a big role — Darvish dealt with injuries in 2018 and was limited to just eight starts.

Which leads us to this past season. Hamels managed to post his best campaign (by WAR) since 2016, despite dealing with a strained oblique muscle in late June. Even missing a little over a month in 2019, Hamels still produced 2.5 WAR, thanks to 27 starts and his highest K-rate since the 2015 season (9.08 K/9).

Throwing his fastball more in 2019 (he increased the use of his heater by roughly 3-percent), Hamels made better use of his cutter and also substantially increased the efficiency of his changeup, finishing with 11.6 RAA with the offering — his highest mark with that particular pitch since 2015.

Hamels also enjoyed a 5.5-percent decrease in hard-hit rate, surrendering just 17 home runs all season. The numbers speak for themselves… Hamels is certainly still a productive major league starting pitcher.

Fortunately for him, there’s an abundance of starting pitching needs (as there always is), including the team he spent the first decade of his career pitching for, the Philadelphia Phillies.

Creating even more suitable options for himself, this week Hamels announced that he’d be open to pitching on a one-year deal in 2020; perhaps a message to interested teams that he’s willing to prove his worth.

“I’ll go every year. I’ll prove myself. I don’t mind having my back against the wall. I think I perform better like that anyway. It just keeps me more accountable.”

While Hamels is not quite as seasoned in age, I recently wrote that the Cardinals were currently in the process of working up a contract for 38-year-old Adam Wainwright, more than likely on a one-year deal.

However, I believe Cole Hamels could possibly receive a bit better than that,  depending on the team and how bad it needs quality pitching (maybe a 2-year deal?) Although, with Hamels’ comment regarding his acceptance to a one-year fling, let’s explore a few teams that would be willing to reach out to the veteran righty, since the Cubs opted to decline offering Hamels a qualifying offer.

MLB Free Agents: 3 Contenders for Cole Hamels

Would he pitch up north in the cold?

Yes, the Minnesota Twins need pitching badly this offseason, and after making a run back to the postseason in 2019, they’re surely determined to keep up the momentum in 2020.

Also, the club has plenty of money to spend, making a higher-priced veteran like Cole Hamels a real possibility.

The Twins’ 2019 rotation primarily consisted of Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Martin Perez, Kyle Gibson, and Michael Pineda. The group did rather well, as Berrios and Odorizzi each produced over 4 WAR, giving the staff a grand total of 16.6 WAR — a 7th place finish in the majors.

Unfortunately, four of those five pitchers above are MLB free agents this winter, requiring the Twins to essentially rebuild its rotation. This past Monday, the Twins extended a qualifying offer to Odorizzi, which could help ease the pain… IF he accepts; but the team will allow Gibson, Pineda, and Perez to enter free agency.

With Berrios the only for-sure pitcher in the 2020 rotation, a lot depends on Odorizzi’s decision, one that he’ll have to make within 10 days of the QO offer (middle of next week). Either way, two starters isn’t going to cut it.

The Twins need quantity over quality at this point. And with the team’s two highest-paid players — Nelson Cruz and Marwin Gonzalez — only making $12 million and $8 million, respectively, expect Minnesota to go hard after several superstar players this winter.

I could see the Twins go after a few top-tier starters first and then if unsuccessful, signing Cole Hamels. Or, the team could very well sign a couple of second-tier arms, plus Hamels, and utilize him as a source of… wait for it… veteran presence.

Overall, this year’s Twins team is a club that needs starting pitching more than any other contending club… maybe any club period.

MLB Free Agents: 3 Contenders for Cole Hamels

Would the Halos settle for Hamels?

Maybe the second most deprived team when it comes to starting pitching, the Los Angeles Angels are desperate for a respectable rotation. Cole Hamels may not be a passionate enough addition, but like the Twins, the Angels mostly need a few healthy arms that can eat innings.

In 2019, the Angels used 19 different starting pitchers! That’s not OK. Eight different pitchers made 10 or more starts, and the primary six were: Andrew Heaney, Griffin Canning, Tyler Skaggs, Jose Suarez, Jamie Barria, and Matt Harvey.

Those 19 total pitchers banded together to accumulate a whopping 3.3 WAR, the least amount of team starting pitching WAR in 2019… and yes, less than each of the Twins’ top two starters above had totaled all by themselves last season. Pitiful.

More from Call to the Pen

• Philadelphia Phillies, ready for a stretch run, bomb St. Louis Cardinals
• Philadelphia Phillies: The 4 players on the franchise’s Mount Rushmore
• Boston Red Sox fans should be upset over Mookie Betts’ comment
• Analyzing the Boston Red Sox trade for Dave Henderson and Spike Owen
• 2023 MLB postseason likely to have a strange look without Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals

Matt Harvey was released in July, and save for Heany and Canning, the team doesn’t have much more that could possibly contend for a rotation spot.

It’s true the Halos have money to burn — I wrote about as much earlier this week (my first article here at Call to the Pen) — but they don’t possess quite as much cash flow for this winter as the Twins (though the Twins have more work to do in terms of filling roster spots).

As of right now, the Angels’ payroll is at roughly $137 million, with Mike Trout ($35.500 million), Albert Pujols ($24 million) and Justin Upton ($21.200 million) accounting for almost 64-percent of that.

Also, the team still must fill numerous holes, including a stopgap-type outfielder (until Joe Addel is ready), someone to help at first base with Albert Pujols, bullpen reinforcements and frankly the team could use a better catcher. Oh yeah… plus ⅗ of a starting rotation!

Perhaps a good plan for the Angels would be to sign Hamels to a two-year deal, but for a smaller yearly salary, say… $12-15 million per year. Then, the team could use those savings (admittedly a small amount of savings) to possibly pursue a catcher or a decent outfielder.

But who knows if Hamels would accept an offer that low in salary just to guarantee two more years. He would obviously make more money that way, relative to settling for a one-year deal.

On the other hand, after years of squandering the talent of the sport’s best player, the Angels may want to go bigger than Hamels. Signing an about-to-be 36-year-old pitcher, no matter how much he’s overachieving for his age, isn’t what competing-teams usually do (even though it’s a little early to call the Angels contenders).

I see the Angels putting all of its eggs in MLB free agents Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg basket. But if they fail to sign either of those two, then we could see the Angels settle for a consistent arm like Cole Hamels, as the team tries to spread out and cover its empty rotation slots.

*All WAR totals were compiled from FanGraphs, and contract figures from Spotrac.