The peak candidates
Broadly speaking, there are two basic philosophies underlying views regarding MLB Hall of Fame candidacies: those who emphasize peak value, and those who prioritize career value. Neither is inherently better than the other; the preference for one vs. the other is individual.
Beyond that, there are two broad categories of evaluating player performance,
OPS+ is a widely accepted number that assesses a player’s performance relative to all other players of his time in a park-adjusted and era-adjusted context. In OPS+, a score of 100 is considered average; the higher the score, the more valuable the player.
WAR, Wins Above Replacement, is a widely accepted number that evaluates each player’s performance in terms of games won relative to replacement-level players. As with ERA+, higher is better.
Normally, those preferring to evaluate candidates on a peak value standard are looking at their performance over a period of about five consecutive seasons. For this exercise that will be our standard.
Our ranking is slightly complicated by the fact that three of the nine nominees – Evans, Simmons and Whitaker – do not have a clear five-season block of excellence, In the case of each of those three, their peak seasons for OPS+ do not align with their peak seasons of WAR. In effect, then, those three players have two peaks.
Having noted that, here how the nine nominees rank in terms of peak performance in five season OPS+.
Name Seasons OPS+
1 Don Mattingly 1984-88 747
2 Dave Parker 1975-79 733
3 Dale Murphy 1983-87 728
4 Dwight Evans 1984-88 693
5 Ted Simmons 1976-80 684
6 Lou Whitaker 1991-95 662
7 Steve Garvey 1974-78 657
8 Tommy John 1966-70 639
9 Thurman Munson 1973-77 616
And here is the peak performance rank as measured by five season WAR.
Name Seasons WAR
1 Dale Murphy 1983-87 31.5
2 Dave Parker 1975-79 31.1
3 Don Mattingly 1984-88 28.8
4 Thurman Munson 1973-77 27.0
5 Lou Whitaker 1982-86 25.3
6 Ted Simmons 1975-79 22.9
6 Dwight Evans 1978-82 22,9
8 Steve Garvey 1974-78 22.7
9 Tommy John 1966-70 20.9
Based on those tables, it’s clear that voters emphasizing peak value have a core of three preferred candidates: Mattingly, Parker, and Murphy in some order.