MLB Hall of Fame: Breaking down the Modern Era ballot
How the nine on-field MLB Hall of Fame Modern Era candidates rank against one another
This week, the MLB Hall of Fame announced the names of 10 figures from the game’s relatively recent history who will be on the Modern Era Hall of Fame ballot, to be voted on next month.
The 10, all of whom were involved during the 1970s and 1980s, are: Dwight Evans, Steve Garvey, Tommy John, Don Mattingly, Marvin Miller, Thurman Munson, Dale Murphy, Dave Parker, Ted Simmons, and Lou Whitaker.
With the exception of Miller, who headed the Major League Baseball Players Association during much of that era, all will be evaluated primarily for their on-field performance. That makes it possible to compare their data relative to one another.
There are 16 voters on the Modern Era Committee, and the rules of election require a candidate to be named on three-quarters of ballots to be inducted. Beyond that, voters are limited to voting for a maximum of four candidates.
The standards for election, in other words, are high. There’s no guarantee any of the 10 will be elected.
All nine of the former players on the ballot have previously been on the Baseball Writers Association of America ballot, and none came especially close to election. Garvey came closest, getting 42.6 percent of the vote in 1995. He ranked fifth in that year’s voting, behind Mike Schmidt, Phil Niekro, Don Sutton, and Tony Perez. Schmidt was elected that year, and the other three were subsequently inducted.
Three other players who finished behind Garvey on that year’s ballot, Ron Santo, Bruce Sutter, and Jim Rice, have subsequently been inducted.
Setting aside personalities and looking strictly at the data, which of the nine on-field candidates present the best case for induction this year? The data is close, and interpreting it largely depends on what you want a MLB Hall of Fame candidate to excel in. Here’s a look at the statistical strengths and weaknesses of all nine. See which criteria you prioritize, and where that leads you.
The peak candidates
Broadly speaking, there are two basic philosophies underlying views regarding MLB Hall of Fame candidacies: those who emphasize peak value, and those who prioritize career value. Neither is inherently better than the other; the preference for one vs. the other is individual.
Beyond that, there are two broad categories of evaluating player performance,
OPS+ is a widely accepted number that assesses a player’s performance relative to all other players of his time in a park-adjusted and era-adjusted context. In OPS+, a score of 100 is considered average; the higher the score, the more valuable the player.
WAR, Wins Above Replacement, is a widely accepted number that evaluates each player’s performance in terms of games won relative to replacement-level players. As with ERA+, higher is better.
Normally, those preferring to evaluate candidates on a peak value standard are looking at their performance over a period of about five consecutive seasons. For this exercise that will be our standard.
Our ranking is slightly complicated by the fact that three of the nine nominees – Evans, Simmons and Whitaker – do not have a clear five-season block of excellence, In the case of each of those three, their peak seasons for OPS+ do not align with their peak seasons of WAR. In effect, then, those three players have two peaks.
Having noted that, here how the nine nominees rank in terms of peak performance in five season OPS+.
Name Seasons OPS+
1 Don Mattingly 1984-88 747
2 Dave Parker 1975-79 733
3 Dale Murphy 1983-87 728
4 Dwight Evans 1984-88 693
5 Ted Simmons 1976-80 684
6 Lou Whitaker 1991-95 662
7 Steve Garvey 1974-78 657
8 Tommy John 1966-70 639
9 Thurman Munson 1973-77 616
And here is the peak performance rank as measured by five season WAR.
Name Seasons WAR
1 Dale Murphy 1983-87 31.5
2 Dave Parker 1975-79 31.1
3 Don Mattingly 1984-88 28.8
4 Thurman Munson 1973-77 27.0
5 Lou Whitaker 1982-86 25.3
6 Ted Simmons 1975-79 22.9
6 Dwight Evans 1978-82 22,9
8 Steve Garvey 1974-78 22.7
9 Tommy John 1966-70 20.9
Based on those tables, it’s clear that voters emphasizing peak value have a core of three preferred candidates: Mattingly, Parker, and Murphy in some order.
Career value
Some find peak value too narrow in its focus to be a preferred metric for evaluating MLB Hall of Fame performance. They tend to emphasize career value, which rewards sustained performance above peak excellence.
In the Hall at present, there are numerous examples of candidates justifying both approaches. Sandy Koufax is the prototype of a peak candidate. He stood out for only the final half of his 12-season career. But between 1961 and 1966, he ranked among the best pitchers in baseball history, averaging a 160 ERA+ (that’s the pitching equivalent of OPS+) and a 7.75 WAR.
Koufax’s teammate, Don Sutton, is a good example of a career candidate. Sutton’s five-season peak ERA+, 658 between 1971 and 1975, is solid but not remarkable in comparison with some of the candidates on this year’s ballot. Nor is his 22.6 WAR for that period.
But Sutton performed well for the bulk of a 23-season career, eventually compiling a 68.3 WAR. That would rank ahead of any of the nine current-year nominees.
From the perspective of a judge favoring career performance, who are the top candidates? Here’s how the nine rank in career OPS+ or – in the case of John — ERA+.
Player Season OPS+
1 Don Mattingly 1982-1995 127
2 Dwight Evans 1972-1991 127
3 Dale Murphy 1976-1993 121
4 Dave Parker 1973-1991 121
5 Ted Simmons 1968-88 118
6 Lou Whitaker 1977-95 117
6 Steve Garvey 1969-87 117
8 Thurman Munson 1969-79 116
9 Tommy John 1963-89 111
And here is the rank when the standard is career WAR.
Player Season WAR
1 Lou Whitaker 1977-95 75.1
2 Dwight Evans 1972-91 67.1
3 Tommy John 1963-89 62.1
4 Ted Simmons 1968-88 50.3
5 Thurman Munson 1969-1979 46.1
6 Dale Murphy 1976-93 45.5
7 Don Mattingly 1982-95 42.4
8 Dave Parker 1973-91 40.1
9 Steve Garvey 1969-87 38.1
Those preferring a career standard are likely to instinctively marshal around Evans. After that, the standard becomes murkier. That’s especially true in the cases of Whitaker and John, whose careers look far better if the standard of measurement is career WAR as opposed to career OPS+ or ERA+.
Other factors
So far we’ve viewed the nine candidates purely through the prism of on-field accomplishment. MLB Hall of Fame voters are permitted to take other factors into consideration, and some of those factors may aid candidates who don’t show up as well in the numbers game
Murphy, to cite one example, is often cited as an exemplar of what has come to be known as the ‘character clause.’ His backers are quick to laud his positive role as a teammate and role model.
John is hailed as the eponymous first recipient of Tommy John surgery, the now-common procedure that has restored hundreds, maybe thousands, of pitchers with torn ulnar collateral ligaments to playing shape. Although votes normally aren’t given for the accident of dying young, there’s no question that Munson was on a Hall of Fame track – seven All Star appearances, a Rookie of the Year Award and an MVP – when he was killed in that 1979 plane crash.
Simmons has been cited for his leading role in activities of the MLBPA during its formative years of the 1970s. Garvey’s backers cite his exceptional post-season work, which included a career .338 post-season average, 11 post-season home runs and critical roles with the 1974 and 1981 World Series winners.
Backers of Whitaker point to him as one of the increasingly rare examples of one-team players. He played all 2,390 of his games for the Detroit Tigers, almost all of them alongside 2018 Hall of Fame selectee Alan Trammel. Their career stats are close, but it may be worth noting that Whitaker led Trammel in career hits, run batted in, on base average, slugging average. OPS+ and WAR.
Who’s in, who’s out?
If we translate our statistical rankings in the four categories to an ordinal placement, we can get what amounts to a “standing.” Mindful that in an ordinal system a perfect score is 1-1-1-1 or 1.00, here are the overall rankings
Player Pk OPS+ Pk WAR Car. OPS+ Car. WAR Avg.
1 Don Mattingly 1 3 1.5 7 3.13
2 Dale Murphy 3 1 3.5 6 3.38
3 Dwight Evans 4 7 1.5 2 3.63
4 Dave Parker 2 2 3.5 8 3.88
5 Ted Simmons 5 5 5 4 4.75
6 Lou Whitaker 6 6 6.5 1 4.88
7 Thurman Munson 9 4 8 5 6.50
8 Tommy John 8 9 9 3 7.25
9 Steve Garvey 7 8 6.5 9 7.63
Looking strictly at the data, the candidacies of Munson, Garvey, and Whitaker are hard to support over numerically better qualified candidates for the MLB Hall of Fame.
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Mattingly, Murphy, Evans and Parker present the four best overall data sets. All clearly meet standards favored by peak-biased voters, and they also rank high in career OPS+.
Voters favoring career-based candidates will look first to Evans, who ranks high in both career OPS+ and career WAR.
The remaining on-field candidates – Whitaker and Simmons – present mixed statistical profiles.
Munson’s career numbers were obviously compromised by his early death. His 27.0 five-year peak WAR from 1973 through 1977 is exceptional, but his 616 OPS+ for that same period is well below the 671.33 average of his fellow nominees.
If the 16 voters choose to include Miller, one of the top four—probably Parker – has to be abandoned.
Next. Spectre of collusion rears head again. dark
Of course, a voter opting for Miller will by definition be open to considering non-statistical qualifications, a fact that could give John or Munson just the advantage their MLB Hall of Fame candidacies appear to need.