MLB Hall of Fame: Breaking down the Modern Era ballot

Career  value

Some find peak value too narrow in its focus to be a preferred metric for evaluating MLB Hall of Fame performance. They tend to emphasize career value, which rewards sustained performance above peak excellence.

In the Hall at present, there are numerous examples of candidates justifying both approaches. Sandy Koufax is the prototype of a peak candidate. He stood out for only the final half of his 12-season career. But between 1961 and 1966, he ranked among the best pitchers in baseball history, averaging a 160 ERA+ (that’s the pitching equivalent of OPS+) and a 7.75 WAR.

Koufax’s teammate, Don Sutton, is a good example of a career candidate. Sutton’s five-season peak ERA+, 658 between 1971 and 1975, is solid but not remarkable in comparison with some of the candidates on this year’s ballot. Nor is his 22.6 WAR for that period.

But Sutton performed well for the bulk of a 23-season career, eventually compiling a 68.3 WAR. That would rank ahead of any of the nine current-year nominees.

From the perspective of a judge favoring career performance, who are the top candidates? Here’s how the nine rank in career OPS+ or – in the case of John — ERA+.

                 Player                                  Season                 OPS+

1              Don Mattingly                   1982-1995            127

2              Dwight Evans                    1972-1991            127

3              Dale Murphy                      1976-1993            121

4              Dave Parker                       1973-1991            121

5              Ted Simmons                     1968-88                118

6              Lou Whitaker                     1977-95                117

6              Steve Garvey                     1969-87                117

8              Thurman Munson            1969-79                116

9              Tommy John                      1963-89                111

And here is the rank when the standard is career WAR.

                 Player                                   Season                 WAR

1              Lou Whitaker                     1977-95                75.1

2              Dwight Evans                    1972-91                67.1

3              Tommy John                      1963-89                62.1

4              Ted Simmons                     1968-88               50.3

5              Thurman Munson            1969-1979           46.1

6              Dale Murphy                      1976-93                45.5

7              Don Mattingly                   1982-95                42.4

8              Dave Parker                       1973-91                40.1

9              Steve Garvey                     1969-87                38.1

Those preferring a career standard are likely to instinctively marshal around Evans. After that, the standard becomes murkier. That’s especially true in the cases of Whitaker and John, whose careers look far better if the standard of measurement is career WAR as opposed to career OPS+ or ERA+.