STL Cardinals: Just give Marcell Ozuna what he wants

With a qualifying offer in hand, free-agent outfielder Marcell Ozuna may test the waters of the market this winter. It may be best for the STL Cardinals to NOT let that happen.

Of the ten players to receive a qualifying offer this season, outfielder Marcell Ozuna looked to be one that would perhaps accept his from the STL Cardinals. But on Saturday, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reported that Ozuna is “very unlikely to take the $17.8M qualifying offer.”

If Ozuna indeed holds out and does enter free agency, it’s quite reasonable to say he will be the best outfielder on the free-agent market this winter.

Despite a 2nd round finish in the postseason, the Redbirds are coming off a rather uninspiring 2019 season, as it pertains to its offense. Considering where the team ranked amongst the rest of the majors in several key offensive categories, the lineup was far from its strength: 14th in fWAR (22.4), 13th in wRC+ (95), 16th in runs scored (764).

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The regulars in the outfield for the Cards last season included: Ozuna (130 games), Harrison Bader (128 games), Dexter Fowler (150 games) and Jose Martinez (128 games), yet neither of them could manage even 2 fWAR, except for Ozuna who finished with 2.8.

In 2020, an Ozuna-less outfield in St. Louis would consist of Bader in center with 33-year-old Fowler and 31-year-old Martinez to cover right and left field — leaving the team with an even worse outfield group on offense, plus a much more feeble defense at the corners (Fowler: -4.7 Def WAR / Martinez: -8.4).

However, the emergence of do-it-all 24-year-old Tommy Edman could present the Cards with a viable option in the outfield. Mostly as an infielder in 2019, Edman was worth 3.2 fWAR, thanks to 92 games of excellent contact, power, defense and speed on the basepaths. He has 13 career major league games in the outfield.

Edman finished his first stint in the majors with 11 home runs, a .304/.350/.500 slash-line and 15 stolen bases while taking the place of a struggling Matt Carpenter.

Sure, a young and promising-looking player (also cheaper) like Edman could replace Ozuna. But is it really wise to put all of your trust in a player with a sample of numbers equaling roughly 60% of a full season? There’s no guarantee that Edman can continue to slug .500, and there shouldn’t be.

And for a team already lacking in outfield defense (even with Ozuna on the roster), letting essentially their second-best regular defender in the outfield walk away doesn’t seem like a great idea. By DRS, the Cards finished with 5 defensive-runs-saved — ranking right in the middle amongst all major league teams and eighth in the National League.

Of course, standing pat may not be the plan for the STL Cardinals. But if replacing Ozuna with a better player is the current strategy for the Redbirds, this may not be the year to do so.

Here’s a list of the top-5 free-agent outfielders (excluding Ozuna) sorted by 2019 bWAR, with each player’s age included:

Brett Gardner: 3.6 WAR (36 yo)
Nick Castellanos: 2.8 WAR (28 yo)
Kole Calhoun: 2.5 WAR (32 yo)
Avisail Garcia: 1.8 WAR (29 yo)
Cameron Maybin: 1.6 WAR (33 yo)

Not exactly a pool of superstars. The Cardinals are better off working a deal with Ozuna, as reported earlier this week.

The projected 3-years, $45 million contract Ozuna is expected to attain this winter shouldn’t be an obstacle for St. Louis. In fact, considering the team’s weaknesses at the plate and lack of candidates to replace a player like Ozuna, an AAV of $15 million should be well worth it.

Next. Rangers targeting third baseman Josh Donaldson. dark

As alluded to above, the current outfield market is not a viable source for outfield help. If the STL Cardinals want to remain contenders in a division that should see improvements from the likes of the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds, it may be best to lock up a guy they’re already familiar with.

Because at the moment, a three-win corner outfielder is rather hard to come by.

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