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MLB Free Agents: This Winter’s best investment, Zach Wheeler

By Clint Manry

Wheeler may be a backup plan for the Phillies this offseason. Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images.
Wheeler may be a backup plan for the Phillies this offseason. Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. /
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PHILADELPHIA, PA – AUGUST 30: Zack Wheeler #45 of the New York Mets throws a pitch against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on August 30, 2019 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA – AUGUST 30: Zack Wheeler #45 of the New York Mets throws a pitch against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on August 30, 2019 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) /

MLB Free Agents: Zack Wheeler

What about the financials?

The potential contracts of Cole and Strasburg have dominated the headlines for weeks now, as no matter where you look, both are projected to command deals that will pay them over $30 million per season:

  • Cole:            7 years, $242 million ($34.5MM AAV)
  • Strasburg: 5 years, $150 million ($30MM AAV)

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It’s not my place to contest whether or not a pitcher is worth that amount of cash; that’s the beauty of the cap-less market in MLB. Although, if I’m a team that’s currently seeking to upgrade my roster (basically all 30 teams), should I sink — for some teams — over 50% of my 2020 budget on one player?

For some organizations, maybe the answer to that question is yes, but I’m willing to presume that for most, the answer should be no. And here’s where Wheeler appears even more appealing.

FanGraphs predicts Wheeler will mandate a 4-year, $68 million pact, essentially half the AAV of Cole’s projected deal above. At $17 million per season, the hit from signing Wheeler is far less damaging.

Now, Wheeler doesn’t come without concerns. Like any pitcher, there’s the constant worry over injuries and various other arm issues; and compared to Cole, Wheeler hasn’t been quite as durable — Cole now has three consecutive seasons with 30 or more GS, while Wheeler has just two such seasons in his big league career.

The health factor will surely scare a few teams off, but it’s important to know that whenever Wheeler has been healthy enough to stay in the rotation throughout the year… he has delivered. In the three seasons that he has made at least 29 GS (2014, 2018, 2019), Wheeler has averaged 3.76 fWAR and a 3.60 ERA. Cole, on the other hand, has averaged 5.6 fWAR and a 3.21 ERA over his last three seasons.

But this isn’t about who’s the better pitcher. To look at this through the lens of a major league front office, this is about investing in an asset that will give teams a solid return on their investment.

Between Cole (29-years-old), Wheeler (29 yo) and Strasburg (31) here are three hard-throwing pitchers at similar periods in their careers. Each of these pitchers certainly have varying quirks and qualities that make each more attractive than the other.

Next. Ryosuke Kikuchi may not be an answer at second. dark

But at half the price of the top two pitchers on the market, the cost for Wheeler’s talent should override the excitement surrounding the game’s top two MLB free agents. If I’m a team looking to fill some holes, Wheeler is the better investment this offseason.

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