Phillies: Revised offseason money chase for 2020
The Phillies have adjusted their roster by declining three pitchers with club options, plus general manager Matt Klentak is preparing for the Rule 5 Draft, the Winter Meetings and free agency with his most challenging months ahead.
Dollars and sense:
Like the Philadelphia Phillies, other franchises revised their financials regarding the CBT (competitive-balance threshold) by making similar personnel changes. Basically, each organization decided which free agents received a QO (qualifying offer) or a buyout. Translation: new monetary totals.
IN OTHER WORDS: “To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often.” – Winston Churchill
Firstly, the figures for Luxury Tax calculations in my last two articles included the amounts for options: club, player, and mutual. But the resource chart stated only buyout dollars were missing and didn’t mention excluding option amounts. So, the Fightins have less AAV (average annual value) by $6.4 million: All teams have less.
Klentak has $151.3 million committed without a $10.3 million arb estimate for J.T. Realmuto, so the GM has $56.7 million to work with. Therefore, the front office will have some limitations on the free-agent market, and they must be more creative. Plus the other contenders for the National League East have limits as well.
While some franchises are at or over the CBT, others are well below it but also have holes to plug from departing players. And some organizations need to fill spots other than pitching.
The last two offseasons, free agency has dragged on due to QOs and Scott Boras. Plus the super agent has Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, Hyun-Jin Ryu and four other top stars. Expectation: plan for teams still bidding in January and February again.
While fans impatiently wait, Klentak will be crunching numbers to find the missing pieces from 2019. Realistically, the exec will offer Realmuto and Cole or Strasburg more dollars and 162s to lower their AAVs. And the decision-maker may also consider southpaws Ryu and Cole Hamels to slot second and fourth respectively.
Approach-wise, the Phils’ first move will be Realmuto’s extension. Remember, managing partner John S. Middleton wanted to sign Bryce Harper for 15 summers to lower his AAV more than his $25.4 million. And he will probably do that and/or exceed the CBT for a one-year penalty.
Astros, Angels and Yankees:
Even though the Houston Astros are negotiating with Cole, their CBT is at $239.4 million, while the Phillies are only approaching the $208 million mark. Ergo, the ‘Stros are also over the $228 million penalty threshold and $8.6 million short of exceeding the $248 million maximum level. Plus they’ve also lost two setup men.
Prediction-wise, the Los Angeles Angels are the favorites to ink Cole to a record-breaking contract for hurlers. But if they sign Cole, they’ll still need the dollars for a second rotation piece and four other roster spots. So, they may not acquire another top starter.
Signing with the hometown nine isn’t always a player’s preference due to the pressure of performing 81 games there, while others relish the occasional series locally. However, starters make 15-17 home appearances per 162. Plus Cole revealed during a recent interview that Reddick had started the west coast rumor.
$208 million competitive-balance threshold for 2020:
- Astros: $239.4 million AAV.
- Angels: $150.2 million AAV.
- Yankees: $215.4 million AAV.
- Phillies: $186.2 million AAV.
Re-upping Gardner for $7.5 million (2019’s salary) will increase the New York Yankees to $222.9 million AAV. Yes, they need a frontline starter, but will they commit $30 million AAV to Cole for a $252.9 million tally when ownership wants to be below $208 million?
The Yankees exceeded the CBT in 2019, plus they are heading in that direction again. Basically, their business philosophy is the Luxury Tax penalty pays their competitors to hand them losses. And that sticking point is their reluctance to overspend like seasons past.
Nats and Padres:
If the San Diego Padres compete with the Phillies for a stud, it’s San Diego-native Strasburg. But he probably wants to remain with the Washington Nationals, and he likely opted out to renegotiate his contract: add $50 million for two more campaigns. Thusly, maintaining his $25 million AAV.
If the Friars are to entice Strasburg, they may present him with a $28-30 million AAV proposal. Yes, they’ll offer more than his current $25 million AAV with $40 million in deferred payments. So luring him away from the Nationals will require a substantial monetary incentive besides his hometown.
On the other hand, the Padres GM must produce a .500 record, or San Diego will replace him. In ’19, they went 70-92 and were 36 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers after inking Machado for $300 million over 10 summers. But they are at $131.8 million and can easily add an ace or another top free-agent arm.
$208 million competitive-balance threshold for 2020:
- Nationals: $132.7 million AAV.
- Padres: $131.8 million AAV.
- Phillies: $186.2 million AAV.
- Astros: $239.4 million AAV.
- Angels: $150.2 million AAV.
- Yankees: $215.4 million AAV.
Financially, the Nats will add length but remain at $25 million AAV for Strasburg. And doing that allows them $75.3 million AAV to replace their departing free agents: a closer, a second baseman, a third sacker and a first baseman: five major pieces including Strasburg.
However, losing Harper and now Rendon might influence Strasburg to test the free-agent market because he had a career year. His double “humper” had 2019 and 2020 as opt-out possibilities.
Lords at the Bank:
While many Phillies faithful have over-the-top expectations, Klentak must free up money before pursuing free-agent moundsmen. He can non-tender Maikel Franco plus trade Cesar Hernandez and Odubel Herrera, plus the exec can replace them with Brad Miller (stopgap for Alec Bohm), Scott Kingery and Adam Haseley respectively.
Financially, Franco ($6.7 million), Herrera ($6.1 million) and Hernandez ($11.8 million) account for $24.6 million AAV. And those deductions would lower the Fightins’ tally to $161.6 million AAV or an available $46.4 million AAV plus an arbitration estimate of $10.3 million for Realmuto included in the $161.6 million total.
For $110 million over seven campaigns, Realmuto’s AAV would be $15.7 million or $5.4 million AAV more than the projected $10.3 million for arbitration. So, the $5.4 million would lower the Phils’ AAV availability to $41 million for pitching. And signing Cole for $220 million over eight seasons would be $27.5 million AAV.
In other words, Klentak would have $13.5 million for another starter and/or relievers. Translation: Velasquez could be the five-slot hurler.
Currently, the roster has five spots for acquired players. And Klentak would prefer signing pitchers without a qualifying offer: southpaws Ryu, Keuchel and Hamels: two portsiders to separate the righties? Ergo, $41 million AAV signs Hamels ($15 million on a one-year deal), Ryu ($17 million AAV), and $9 million for the pen.
To sum up, waiting out Boras for one ace will be an expensive risk many organizations won’t take, and predictions are iffy at best percentage-wise. Every winter, fans express their impatience as the free-agent market drags on into January, and what’s the one thing they never receive? Certainty!
The Numerical Bible:
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This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
Phillies right-handed targets:
- Cole, 29: 33 Gms., 212 1/3 Inn., 20-5, a 2.50 ERA, a 2.64 FIP, a 2.48 xFIP, a 2.62 SIERA, a 7.4 fWAR and a 0.89 WHIP.
- Strasburg, 31: 33 Gms., 209 Inn., 18-6, a 3.32 ERA, a 3.25 FIP, a 3.17 xFIP, a 3.49 SIERA, a 5.7 fWAR and a 1.04 WHIP.
- Odorizzi, 29.5: 30 Gms., 159 Inn., 15-7, a 3.51 ERA, a 3.36 FIP, a 4.33 xFIP, a 4.14 SIERA, a 4.3 fWAR and a 1.21 WHIP.
- Wheeler, 29.5: 31 Gms., 195 1/3 Inn., 11-8, a 3.96 ERA, a 3.48 FIP, a 4.06 xFIP, a 4.20 SIERA, a 4.7 fWAR and a 1.26 WHIP.
Phillies southpaw targets:
- Ryu, 32.5: 29 Gms., 182 2/3 Inn., 14-5, a 2.32 ERA, a 3.10 FIP, a 3.32 xFIP, a 3.77 SIERA, a 4.8 fWAR and a 1.01 WHIP.
- Bumgarner, 30: 34 Gms., 207 2/3 Inn., 9-9, a 3.90 ERA, a 3.90 FIP, a 4.31 xFIP, a 4.15 SIERA, a 3.2 fWAR and a 1.13 WHIP.
- Hamels, 35.5: 27 Gms., 141 2/3 Inn., 7-7, a 3.81 ERA, a 4.09 FIP, a 4.38 xFIP, a 4.55 SIERA, a 2.5 fWAR and a 1.39 WHIP.
- Keuchel, 31.5: 19 Gms., 112 2/3 Inn., 8-8, a 3.75 ERA, a 4.72 FIP, a 4.06 xFIP, a 4.39 SIERA, a 0.8 fWAR and a 1.37 WHIP.
Next. Phillies: Promises made to Joe Girardi for 2020. dark
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