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St. Louis Cardinals re-sign veteran Adam Wainwright

By Clint Manry

ST LOUIS, MO - OCTOBER 27: (EDITORS NOTE: This image was processed using digital filters) A general view of signage prior to Game Four of the 2013 World Series between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Boston Red Sox at Busch Stadium on October 27, 2013 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
ST LOUIS, MO - OCTOBER 27: (EDITORS NOTE: This image was processed using digital filters) A general view of signage prior to Game Four of the 2013 World Series between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Boston Red Sox at Busch Stadium on October 27, 2013 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) /
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For the second consecutive season, right-handed veteran starting pitcher Adam Wainwright has re-signed with the STL Cardinals.

Perhaps not the most impressive signing of this offseason’s hot stove, the STL Cardinals did the expected on Tuesday morning and brought back veteran starting pitcher, Adam Wainwright. According to MLB Trade Rumors, the contract is a one-year pact worth $5 million, with an additional $5 million in possible incentives.

Seemingly impressed with the 38-year-old’s 2019 season — in which he posted 2.2 fWAR, thanks to a 14-10 record and 4.19 ERA — the Cardinals are rewarding Wainwright with a $3 million raise in base salary for the 2020 season; though once again, the righty will have an opportunity to earn as much as $10 million in total salary. (Wainwright made $10 million last season from various incentives).

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What should we expect from Wainwright in 2020?

Expectations regarding Wainwright’s 2020 season should remain rather timid, as the former 1st round pick is no longer the frontline pitcher he once was. His surprise season in 2019 was the first time the three-time All-Star approached 200 innings pitched since his 2016 season. Totaling 171.2 innings from 31 starts, Wainwright leaned on his famous curveball to strike out 153 total batters in 2019, finishing with 8.09 K/9 and 3.36 BB/9 — his best walk-rate since 2017.

Looking at the current projections, regression looks to be coming Wainwright’s way, though it isn’t farfetched to expect him to still manage a respectable 2020 campaign:

  • Baseball-Reference:  149.0 innings, 11-9, 4.65 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 3.5 BB/9
  • FanGraphs Steamer: 154.0 innings, 9-10, 4.68 ERA, 7.69 K/9, 3.23 BB/9, 1.5 WAR

With the going rate for 1 WAR these days priced at roughly $9 million and the possibility that Wainwright can fulfill his incentives threshold and unlock his full potential salary, his 2020 contract will certainly be worthwhile. In his last three healthy seasons (2016, 2017, 2019), Wainwright has totaled 6.4 fWAR —an average of 2.13 fWAR per season — so even in his late-30s, the Georgia native is capable.

The biggest concern is obviously health. Wainwright crossed over the 2,000 career innings mark last season, and even though the STL Cardinals reliance on his arm has wavered over the years, it’s important to remember the amount of workload the 6’7″, 235-pound pitcher has taken on in his 14 big league seasons.

Seasons like 2009 and 2013 — years in which Wainwright pitched 230+ innings — certainly have taken a toll on his right arm; and considering 5 of his first 9 years in the majors featured seasons of 200+ innings, keeping Wainwright fresh and rested will undoubtedly be a top priority for the Cardinals this upcoming season.

Is this it for the Cards?

I wrote about this last week, but the Cardinals shouldn’t be content with their 2nd round appearance in the postseason in 2019. Despite a great year and a few breakout seasons by key players, the Cardinals were still tabbed by many — because of a lacking offense — as the weakest playoff team entering the postseason.

With a few weaknesses in the lineup to shore up, this shouldn’t be the only move the Redbirds make this offseason. With plenty of hot stove left and a full winter and list of free agents to go, it would be in the team’s best interest to acquire at least one key bat.

However, at a time when the $208 million luxury tax threshold looms, the mid-market Cardinals have limited space on its payroll to make much noise in the coming months. It appears that with Wainwright now in the mix, the team will settle for a strong starting rotation of Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas, Dakota Hudson and some combination of Carlos Martinez and Alex Reyes to fill the last spot on the staff.

It seems probable that perhaps any other additions to the 2020 roster will be an expense to contribute towards an STL Cardinals offense that ranked near the back-half of the National League in 2019. Although, a few trades or creative transactions could free up some cash and allow the organization a chance to bolster the starting rotation even more.

Next. Does MSM set the Phillies targets?. dark

With it being only mid-November, a lot can happen before Spring Training next year. Crazier things have happened during the winter months of an MLB offseason.

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