Chicago Cubs Core Is Fine – Their Pitching Isn’t
Last season was a tough pill to swallow for Theo Epstein and the Chicago Cubs faithful. What comes next is going to be even harder.
It’s been three years since the Chicago Cubs won the World Series, and in a certain light, they could have, oh, say another 100 years or so before worrying overhard about the drought. Theo Epstein and company are under no such illusions as they prepare for what could be a tumultuous offseason in Wrigleyville.
Re-watching their title-winning game 7 from 2016, it’s surprising how similar the team looks to the squad that faceplanted into an 82-80 record in 2019. Dexter Fowler is gone, Javier Baez no longer bats ninth, but the rest of the starting lineup remains (though that’s about to change).
There’s a decent chance Ben Zobrist retires after a complicated season, and Addison Russell‘s career has cratered to the point that he’s a likely non-tender. The rest of the position player core remains intact, and in many ways, they look better than ever.
Javier Baez evolved beyond a fan favorite a defensive whiz into a fringe MVP candidate and a premier power player at shortstop. Willson Contreras is coming off his most complete season to date and shows signs of coming around as a pitch framer. Kyle Schwarber finally put it all together in 2019’s second half, ending the year with 38 home runs and a premium-level .531 SLG.
Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant anchor the heart of the batting order, and when healthy, they’re much the same players they were in 2016. Bryant especially has struggled when less than 100%, but when he’s on, he has light-tower power and he’s a game-changing baserunner.
Take that core, add absolutely nailing the deadline acquisition of Nicholas Castellanos, and it would be reasonable to assume the 2019 Cubs pushed for title contention. Spoiler alert: they didn’t.
The public identity of these Chicago Cubs hangs on the position player side because that’s where their stars live. Homegrown, personable, talented stars. The faces of the curse-breaking 2016 Cubs. Namely, those listed above: Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Schwarber, Contreras, and to a less-earnest degree, Jason Heyward.
The rumors swirling this offseason center on which of these core position players might be on the move. So let’s start there.
Chicago Cubs Position Players
Contreras is the most likely trade candidate, but Theo and company must at least be curious to see if his pitch framing can improve further under David Ross. Remember, Contreras came late to catching, and if there’s another developmental step for him in that department, he’ll have crossed the last frontier in terms of becoming a complete franchise catcher.
Rizzo is the most secure given his closeness to every level of Chicago Cubs leadership, and odd as this may seem, first basemen with Rizzo’s two-way ability are a rare commodity these days.
Baez‘s skillset and popularity with fans make him an unlikely move as well. Nico Hoerner can’t replace him. He looks like a fine player – with the type of contact skills this lineup desperately needs – but he doesn’t match Baez’s ceiling on either side of the ball.
Not to mention, Baez’s presence continues to be the gift that helps Cubs fans process the unmitigated disaster that is Addison Russell‘s fall from grace. Even if a trade package returns a young shortstop to step in for Baez from day one (unlikely), there’s emotional collateral to dealing Baez that I don’t think the Cubs are ready to handle.
Schwarber‘s value doesn’t match the others, and to Cubs brass, his character has always made him a foundational piece. There’s a monster season somewhere in Schwarber’s future, and if can improve even a little more on his .229/.306/.450 against lefties, he could put together a .250/.360/.550 type of season – that’s when you want to trade him. Still, there’s enough uncertainty to make paying Schwarber an uneasy proposition.
What kind of deal would it take to move Bryant? A Bryant trade is complicated by his legal proceedings against the team, but the Cubs are listening for a couple of reasons. He’s represented by Scott Boras, who will seek a monster payday in Bryant’s future. The Cubs have to either commit to him in a Miguel Cabrera, bottom-might-fall-out-but-he’s-our-guy kind of way, or they have to see if they can find a return to jumpstart the next era of Cubs baseball.
Health is a real concern. Over the past two seasons, Bryant’s shown the resilience to play through injuries, but he hasn’t shown the ability to play all that well. When he’s right, there are few hitters in the game with his ability, but he’s a big boy at 6’5″/230lbs, and early warning signs hint at a player that might not age all that gracefully. That doesn’t mean he won’t continue to be an All-Star, but it also doesn’t mean he’s going to be worth $300MM+ throughout his thirties.
Still, he’s only 27 now, so he ought to have another 3+ years of superstar production in him. His ceiling is high enough that it’s probably worth going year-to-year for the next two seasons. There aren’t enough teams that can afford him to make the prospect cost worth it for the Cubs. It’s hard to imagine him moving unless there’s a team that absolutely thinks he is the answer.
Because the fact is: these players aren’t what ails the Chicago Cubs.
The Chicago Cubs Bullpen
More important than which core member of the Cubbies gets traded away is what they would receive in return. Presumably, the Chicago Cubs are dangling their stars for a promising-but-nebulous bounty of prospects. Such a package can manifest in a variety of forms.
What doesn’t usually come back in these deals, however, is what the Cubs need most: frontline starting pitching.
They might get high-quality pitching prospects, but they’re not likely to get one that’s ready to jump into the rotation from day one. That means that no matter who the Cubs trade away, there’s still going to be work to do.
What’s forgotten about the 2016 Cubs team is that they didn’t win on the strength of their position player core. They actually won in much the same fashion as the Nationals this season: a big three in the rotation and a choice collection of relievers. The Nats used pretty much six guys in their postseason victories.
The high leverage innings in the Cubs World Series wins were pretty much handled by five guys: Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Jake Arrieta, Mike Montgomery, and Aroldis Chapman. Carl Edwards Jr. played a role as well, but when the game was on the line, Joe Maddon went to one of those guys.
Part of this is finding the right guys at the right time of year. Like Montgomery for the Cubs, Daniel Hudson isn’t a guy that most GMs would have handpicked to deliver a World Series. He may never prove as reliable an option as he was for Dave Martinez and the Nats down the stretch. That’s a hard factor to plan for in winter.
As for the other roles, the Cubs have some work to do. They hope Craig Kimbrel is the lockdown ninth-inning guy he has been in the past. It didn’t work last year, but because of the financial commitment, they have to prepare as if 2019 was an anomaly. Because of the late signing, it was a different kind of season for Kimbrel, and there’s at least the possibility that a more stable 2020 will produce more stable results.
They don’t have another proven guy in the bullpen, but that’s one area that has to continue to develop over the course of the season. It takes a lot of guys stepping up at various times in a Daniel Hudson type of way to get through the 162, and the Cubs are in the process of collecting arms who might step up for a stretch of that marathon.
Rowan Wick and Kyle Ryan are two of those guys, and Tyler Chatwood did enough to earn his spot in the bullpen as a regular-season contributor. Brad Wieck put together 14 solid appearances with a 2.71 FIP, so he’ll be a part of the picture, but he has an option remaining so he might not join the club on day one.
The good news for the Cubs is that it doesn’t always take a lot of money to build the right bullpen, but it does take a keen in-game tactician and emotional manager, and if there’s a learning curve for David Ross, that’s probably the area where he’ll need time to grow.
Even still, the 2020 ChicagoCubs have an even bigger problem on their hands: the rotation.
The Chicago Cubs Rotation
In 2016, Lester, Arrieta, and Hendricks had ERAs of 2.44, 3.10, and 2.13 with inning counts of 202 2/3, 197 1/3, and 190.
The Chicago Cubs no longer have those kinds of workhorses. Those are ace workhorses.
Yu Darvish had a 3.98 ERA and led the team with 178 2/3. Hendricks had a 3.46 ERA across 177 innings. The rotation starts to look championship ready if there’s an ace pitching in front of those two, but the Cubs don’t have that guy.
Lester threw 171 2/3 innings of 4.46 ERA/4.26 FIP baseball. He’s going to be 36-years-old this year. Maybe David Ross can work his Lester magic from the dugout, but there’s little reason to trust him to be more than a number 4 starter, tops, for a first division team.
Jose Quintana, 31 in January, has a better chance of returning to his earlier form, but even at his best he never put together a season like those in 2016. His 3.80 FIP from 2019 looks a lot better than the 4.68 ERA, but even at his best Quintana looks like a first division #3.
Those four names are penciled into the Cubs 2020 rotation. Alec Mills and Adbert Alzolay could be in the mix, but neither projects for the type of high-quality innings the Cubs need.
Simply: the Cubs don’t have enough pitching. Worse, they’re not real close. Darvish seems to have figured it out, and maybe he’s finally comfortable in Chicago, but he’s the definition of volatile. Hendricks remains a high-end starter, but his ceiling is that of a first division #2. He’s a key player for the 2020 Cubs, but alone, he’s not the answer.
Most likely, the Chicago Cubs enter 2020 with a rotation with something close to 5 mid-rotation starters. That’s enough to compete for the postseason, but it’s not enough to put them among the favorites in the NL.
They need an ace.
A Chicago Cubs Offseason Plan
A true ace is the hardest thing to come by in baseball. The Chicago Cubs had them in 2016, but they don’t in 2020. There are two true aces on the free-agent market, but the Cubs have four more seasons of big money committed to Darvish and Jason Heyward, and their position player core is about to get mad expensive. They’re not going to outbid the field for Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg.
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The Cubs could go whole hog and commit to paying the luxury tax for the next four seasons. Like, they actually could. But no team in this era has committed to that level of spending.
They gambled and barely exceeded the luxury tax in 2019. Now they face repeater taxes if they exceed again, which becomes hard to stomach with back-to-back playoff misses. Because their position players are all coming of age at the same time, they’re in a bind.
Per Roster Resource, the Cubs are already over the luxury tax for 2020. Arbitration raises alone probably puts them over the line for 2021 as well. There’s not a good time to duck under the tax like the Nats in 2019 or the Dodgers the past two seasons. They can maybe clear a portion of Chatwood’s $13MM or all of. Quintana’s $11.5MM, but they’d have to move both and basically sign nobody to get under the tax line this season.
All in all, it’s hard to imagine how they’re going to acquire the difference makers to turn this team into a legit contender. The books are weighed down by large financial obligations to mid-tier players and a robust core of position players aging into expensive contracts at the same time. They haven’t produced pitching from the farm, and that doesn’t look like it’s changing this season.
As much fun as this team was in 2016, they were decidedly less so four seasons later, and now they’re facing the potential end of their run. Theo’s next move will be a tough one to swallow, but the right trade could key a continuance of their good fortune.
The swiftest way to add talent is to trade Contreras. It hurts, but Victor Caratini looks like an able replacement, and maybe even an improvement when it comes to framing. One of the only high-end prospects in the Chicago Cubs system also happens to be a catcher, and the Cubs can get by with Caratini and a backup without too much dropoff. Contreras has three years of control remaining, which opens up the possible field of suitors. He’s a significant trade chip.
Next. Bold predictions for MLB free agency. dark
Finding the right deal to cash in is the task facing Theo Epstein. Moving him takes guts because it might not provide the short-term boost Theo and fans want. But it’s the surest way to keep the talent pipeline flowing.