Phillies bullpen in 2020 can be helped by former ace

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The Phillies have an alternative route for the rotation to signing Cole. Photo by Geoff Burke – Pool/Getty Images. /

While Phillies coverage is on the acquisition of a rotation piece or two, general manager Matt Klentak must also consider having back-of-the-pen hurlers to protect slight edges in the final three frames.

Right price:

Occasionally, something unexpected lands on the Philadelphia Phillies GM’s desk and is an opportunity to accomplish his goals and achieve positive results more easily. But Klentak can’t use it as a backup plan and risk forfeiting this chance to a rival, he must make moves with a critical eye — yet quickly!

IN OTHER WORDS: “Right time, right place, right people equals success. Wrong time, wrong place, wrong people equals most of the real human history.” – Idries Shah

The hot stove league began with good news for the starting staff and the relief corps. Yes, one involves good health regarding a reliever who finished 2019 on the injured list, and the other concerns a reasonably priced hurler for a contending opportunity. Any guesses?

The importance of remaining below the CBT (competitive-balance threshold) is critical to the business end of major league baseball. Unfortunately, execs don’t advertise this long-term factor, plus many fans and writers are oblivious to this trend for parity due to thoughts directed elsewhere.

Rooting for teams and stars goes back to recruiting players, forming a club, creating a league, and charging admission. So, if your favorite fielder, catcher or pitcher doesn’t perform up to expectations, the Phils replace, cut, or swap him. But one role for two good regulars equals trading a strength for a weakness.

Employing hindsight primarily, some scribes individualize each deal not made, but combining their moves equals a GM’s dismissal even if two are contradictory. Yet, if a hitter consistently goes two for five, he’s an All-Star, while the decision-maker must go five for five to keep his job according to some locals, no?

While managing partner John S. Middleton’s approach of adding seasons and dollars to a free-agent signing lacks popularity, he’s lowering the AAV to avoid the Luxury Tax. But some faithful supporters prefer dramatically overpaying per 162 to limit the contract lengthwise, which raises the AAV they casually dismiss.

Imagine acquiring a mid-rotation arm for $10 million AAV. Yes, an extra $5 million AAV for a critical-inning fireman will help the pen shoulder the workload in the seventh, eighth and ninth. In other words, good fortune could be at hand after last summer’s plague of the walking wounded.

Although Strasburg could re-sign with the Nats, the Phillies could compete for him as well. Photo by Cooper Neill/MLB Photos via Getty Images. /

Armchair GMs:

Baseball and Phillies fans find the Luxury Tax annoying because it slows down building a championship team due to the wait for players to develop. Yes, they must endure rebuilding, 90-loss campaigns, and unwatchable defeats even without a soft or hard cap like other major sports: Owners have the money, no?

In one national publication, they believe players should make considerably more, and owners use the CBT as a cost-cutting excuse. Meanwhile, many fans think the stars are greedy, plus the franchise owes them an annual contender. But the organizations, athletes, agents, writers, fans, and the union aren’t the only voices involved.

Hiding in the open is the MLB with parity. Yes, they offer an incentive to reset the tax rate if the club slides under the CBT for one season. But they also have added a multi-tier penalty structure to discourage unlimited spending. Translation: More penalties are available until teams get the drift. Yeah, oh!

Unless an exec wins the World Series, the faithful will bemoan the one unfulfilled move out of four. But they’ll present their correct decision after the fact. However, one franchise’s strategy doesn’t work for all contenders because every club has different needs and resources.

Phillies spending:

Estimates beginning at $46.4 million AAV
including Realmuto’s projected $10.3 million arb amount for 2020.
Cole: -$27.5 million AAV for $18.9 million AAV ($220 million over 8 yrs.)
Balance: $18.9 million AAV for a starter and/or 2 relievers.

If J.T. Realmuto’s re-up begins in 2021, and Klentak signs Gerrit Cole, the higher-up will have $18.9 million remaining with a lengthened commitment. But he might have $20.4 million AAV if he inks Stephen Strasburg for $182 million over seven years: $26 million AAV or $1.5 million AAV additional to spend.

A healthy Dominguez will change the dynamics for critical innings ahead. Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images. /

Strategic thinking:

Recently, two revelations have changed the Phillies equation for the five-man staff and the back end of the pen. An aging stud is willing to sign a one-summer pact with a team heading for serious October baseball, while the other is Seranthony Dominguez throwing his heater and off-speed stuff painlessly from the mound.

Phillies spending:

Estimates beginning at $46.4 million AAV
including Realmuto’s projected $10.3 million arb amount for 2020.
Cole: -$27.5 million AAV for $18.9 million AAV ($220 million over 8 yrs).
Balance: $18.9 million AAV for a starter and/or 2 relievers.

Phillies spending alternative:

Estimates beginning at $46.4 million AAV
including Realmuto’s projected $10.3 million arb amount for 2020.
Hamels: -$10 million AAV for $36.4 million AAV (($20 million over 2 yrs.)
Ryu: -$17 million AAV for $19.4 million AAV ($51 million over 3 yrs.)
Balance: $19. 4 million AAV for 2 relievers.

If the Fightins prefer a plan B, Cole Hamels announced a possible one-season deal for an organization seriously vying for a ring. So, Klentak could ink two southpaws without a QO (qualifying offer): no draft-pick compensation and the bonus pool money associated with it.

Hyun-Jin Ryu ($17 million AAV) and Dallas Keuchel ($13 million AAV) are portsiders without QOs, and either could sign a three-year contract. Basically, two lefties could separate the three right-handers in the rotation: Aaron Nola, Ryu, Zach Eflin, Hamels and Jake Arrieta.

Regarding creativeness, Hamels is looking for $15 million for 2020, but Klentak could lower the AAV to $10 million if the deal is for $20 million for two 162s. To accomplish this, the additional $5 million would include $5 million worth of incentives, but Hamels could also opt out after ’20. Or he could earn $25 million for two campaigns.

With $19.4 million AAV, Klentak could acquire two of Will Harris, Daniel Hudson, Drew Pomeranz or Dellin Betances to go with Neris and Dominguez. And this alternative offers more flexibility to add two solid firemen. So, what is a possible Hamels’ return with a healthy Dominguez a foretelling of? Good fortune ahead!

A Hamels’ return will lead to revisiting the southpaw hitting Harper with a pitch early in the slugger’s career. Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images. /

The Numerical Bible:

This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.

Phillies 2020 competitive-balance threshold of $208 million:

Estimates beginning at $186.2 million AAV
including $10.3 million arb estimate for Realmuto.
Hernandez: -$11.8 million via trade for $174.4 million AAV.
Herrera: -$6.1 million via trade for $168.3 million AAV.
Franco: -$6.7 million via non-tender for $161.6 million AAV.
$208 million AAV minus $161.6 million AAV equals $46.4 million AAV.

Phillies right-handed targets:

Cole, 29: 33 Gms., 212 1/3 Inn., 20-5, a 2.50 ERA, a 2.64 FIP, a 2.48 xFIP, a 2.62 SIERA, a 7.4 fWAR and a 0.89 WHIP.
Strasburg, 31: 33 Gms., 209 Inn., 18-6, a 3.32 ERA, a 3.25 FIP, a 3.17 xFIP, a 3.49 SIERA, a 5.7 fWAR and a 1.04 WHIP.
Wheeler, 29.5: 31 Gms., 195 1/3 Inn., 11-8, a 3.96 ERA, a 3.48 FIP, a 4.06 xFIP, a 4.20 SIERA, a 4.7 fWAR and a 1.26 WHIP.

Phillies southpaw targets:

Ryu, 32.5: 29 Gms., 182 2/3 Inn., 14-5, a 2.32 ERA, a 3.10 FIP, a 3.32 xFIP, a 3.77 SIERA, a 4.8 fWAR and a 1.01 WHIP.
Bumgarner, 30: 34 Gms., 207 2/3 Inn., 9-9, a 3.90 ERA, a 3.90 FIP, a 4.31 xFIP, a 4.15 SIERA, a 3.2 fWAR and a 1.13 WHIP.
Hamels, almost 36: 27 Gms., 141 2/3 Inn., 7-7, a 3.81 ERA, a 4.09 FIP, a 4.38 xFIP, a 4.55 SIERA, a 2.5 fWAR and a 1.39 WHIP.
Keuchel, almost 32: 19 Gms., 112 2/3 Inn., 8-8, a 3.75 ERA, a 4.72 FIP, a 4.06 xFIP, a 4.39 SIERA, a 0.8 fWAR and a 1.37 WHIP.

Phillies targets’ statistical results toward 75-80 percent:

Hudson: 47 good, 7 so-so and 15 bad (1 blowup) out of 69 total for 78.3%
With Washington: 17 good, 3 so-so and 4 bad (0 blowups) out of 24 total for 83.3%
Harris: 54 good, 6 so-so and 8 bad (0 blowups) out of 68 total for 88.2%
Pomeranz: 22 good (1 opener), 3 so-so and 4 bad (0 blowups) out of 29 total for 86.2%

Phillies bullpen targets:

Hudson, 32.5:
Total: 69 Gms. (1 opener), 73 Inn., a 2.47 ERA, 8 Saves, 11 Holds, a 3.97 FIP, a 5.08 xFIP, a 4.31 SIERA, a 0.9 fWAR and a 1.14 WHIP.
Nationals: 24 Gms., 25 Inn., a 1.44 ERA, 6 Saves, 3 Holds and a 0.88 WHIP.
Harris, 35: 68 Gms., 60 Inn., a 1.50 ERA, 4 Saves, 26 Holds, a 3.15 FIP, a 3.04 xFIP, a 3.18 SIERA, a 1.1 fWAR and a 0.93 WHIP.
Pomeranz, 31: 29 Gms., 28 2/3 Inn., a 1.88 ERA, 2 Saves, 12 Holds, 0 BS, a 1.92 FIP and a 1.67 xFIP.

Next. Phillies: Revised offseason money chase for 2020. dark

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