Phillies: The most intriguing case for Cliff Lee to the Hall of Fame
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The 2020 MLB Hall of Fame Ballot includes for the first time the intriguing pitcher Cliff Lee, who pitched wonderfully for the Indians and the Phillies.
The announcement of the 2020 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot Nov. 18 led to an interesting tweet by Gary Phillips, an associate editor at Yankees Magazine. After assessing a few of the holdover nominees and sorting them into controversial and non-controversial piles, he wrote, “[Cliff] Lee is the most intriguing newcomer case to me.”
“Really?” I thought and scanned the ballot for other “intriguing” first-year nominees. Phillips’ terminology certainly wouldn’t cover Jose Valverde.
It might apply to Paul Konerko. Derek Jeter, of course, isn’t “intriguing.” He’s a lock.
So, maybe… It’s just that most fans have likely never thought of Lee as a possible Hall of Famer, much as they loved watching him compete. Maybe that’s because, while with the Phillies at least, a great many people are still hoping he comes out of retirement, even though most know he’s in the ballpark of 40 years old.
Could Cliff Lee be a Hall of Famer?
There have been 25 players inducted at Cooperstown in the last seven years. Nine of them were largely starting pitchers (one was a “bad” starting pitcher in the 19th century but an early umpire), and only two were left-handers, like Lee.
Those were Randy Johnson in 2015 and Tom Glavine the year before that. And a first glance at their records, then Lee’s, would perhaps suggest this evaluation: Cliff Lee is toast. He may not make it to the second ballot (with five percent of the votes cast this year), let alone ever be voted in.
Both Johnson and Glavine had more than 300 wins (and may be the last ever inducted to pass that milestone – the three starters inducted since 2015 posted between 203 and 270 wins). Meanwhile, Cliff Lee, who retired the year Glavine got his plaque, won a mere 143 games. Both Johnson and Glavine pitched 22 seasons; Lee pitched 13.
OK, let’s pick away at the numbers, and since this is all speculation, we can start with baseball’s most fanciful “measure” – WAR. Johnson’s career WAR was 101.1, or an average rounded figure of 4.6. Glavine’s career figure was 80.7, a 3.7 average.
Cliff Lee’s figure was 43.5, which works out to 3.3.
The high water mark WAR for Glavine was 8.5 (1991) – “MVP quality” (supposedly 8-plus). Johnson’s was 10.7 (2002) – definitely MVP quality. In fact, Johnson hit 8.0 or better seven times; Glavine did it once.
Lee had one 8-plus, an 8.5 in 2011, with the 102-win Phillies. So, arguably Lee equals Glavine there, but definitely doesn’t reach Johnson.
How about WHIP, a very useful figure once you figure out that the acceptable range is really pretty narrow? The proper MLB WHIP runs, more or less, from 0.900 (very, very good) through 1.500 (not so hot at all).
Johnson ran his whole career with a 1.171 WHIP; yes, the figures after he was 40 weren’t that wonderful, but at 40 he had a 0.900, which led the NL, in 245.2 innings. On the other hand, Glavine’s Hall of Fame-worthy WHIP was 1.314.
Cliff Lee’s career WHIP was 1.196, a fairly interesting figure for a pitcher determined to throw strikes.
How about career FIP, which has seemingly replaced ERA as a vital figure in the 21st century? Johnson – 3.19; Glavine – 3.95; Lee – 3.45. And to cherry-pick, in his last two seasons, Lee’s FIP figures were below 3.00, while Glavine and Johnson’s four last-campaign figures ran between 3.76 (Johnson in Arizona at age 44) and 6.02 (Glavine in Atlanta at 42).
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But – Longevity Means Nothing?
Still, you say, the longevity thing must count for something. In Lee’s last season, he was 35. And Johnson and Glavine both had over 465 decisions, Glavine over 500. OK, Cliff Lee definitely won’t be a first-ballot selection. He had 234 decisions; on the other hand, he lost 75 fewer regular-season games than Johnson, and 112 fewer than Glavine.
However, are there HOF left-handed starters who are fairly comparable to Lee? And how much should we take into account different eras?
It seems fairly indisputable that as time has moved on, MLB thinking has upended the notion of the value of a starting pitcher who goes deep into games, thus limiting wins (decision) potential. On the other hand, Cliff Lee frequently pitched into the late innings of his games. (Take a look at his game log for the first three months of the 2011 season, for example.)
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Let’s get back to comparable HOF lefties. Two with records quite like Lee’s were Lefty Gomez (1930-43) and Sandy Koufax (1955-66), and any time Koufax is added to your side of an argument, your prospects brighten considerably.
Oddly, both were voted into the HOF in 1972, Koufax by baseball writers and Gomez by the Veteran’s Committee.
Gomez was a Yankee for all but one of his 14 seasons, many of them with very strong teams; Koufax was a Dodger his entire, 12-year career, also often with quite strong teams. Cliff Lee pitched his 13 campaigns with so-so Cleveland squads except in 2007 (not actually a successful year for him personally), and with excellent Philadelphia teams for a year and a half, broken up by a year involving short stints in Seattle and Texas. His three other years with the Phillies involved team losing records twice and a .500 finish.
Gomez won 189 of his 291 decision games (.649); Koufax took 165 of his 252 decisions (.655); Lee’s 143 wins gave him a .611 figure.
Koufax’s average WAR was 4.1, or 0.8 better than Lee’s; Gomez’ average was 2.7, or 0.6 behind Lee.
Gomez was an All-Star seven times, and compiled a 6-0 post-season record (2.86 ERA); Koufax went to the mid-summer classic six times, won three Cy Young trophies, and was 4-3 in the post-season. His aggregate October ERA was a ridiculous 0.95.
Cliff Lee was an All-Star four times and won a Cy Young Award with Cleveland. His post-season record was 7-3 (2.52 ERA). He was the only Phillies pitcher to beat New York (twice) in the 2009 World Series and will be forever a Philadelphia legend for nonchalantly sneering at the Yankees as he caught a pop-up on the mound in that Series.
Bottom line: If Lee had played for teams in the very largest media markets, there might well be a drumbeat for his induction based on his competitive drive, his “grit.” As it is, though, he might well need to wait 10 years, or forever, to be inducted.
Next. Phillies: A case for Bobby Abreu to the Hall of Fame. dark
Maybe the real question, however, should be: Is Cliff Lee more worthy of Hall of Fame induction than the steroid cheats riding off into the sunset now?