Phillies: The most intriguing case for Cliff Lee to the Hall of Fame

The 2020 MLB Hall of Fame Ballot includes for the first time the intriguing pitcher Cliff Lee, who pitched wonderfully for the Indians and the Phillies.

The announcement of the 2020 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot Nov. 18 led to an interesting tweet by Gary Phillips, an associate editor at Yankees Magazine. After assessing a few of the holdover nominees and sorting them into controversial and non-controversial piles, he wrote, “[Cliff] Lee is the most intriguing newcomer case to me.”

“Really?” I thought and scanned the ballot for other “intriguing” first-year nominees. Phillips’ terminology certainly wouldn’t cover Jose Valverde.

It might apply to Paul Konerko. Derek Jeter, of course, isn’t “intriguing.” He’s a lock.

So, maybe… It’s just that most fans have likely never thought of Lee as a possible Hall of Famer, much as they loved watching him compete. Maybe that’s because, while with the Phillies at least, a great many people are still hoping he comes out of retirement, even though most know he’s in the ballpark of 40 years old.

Could Cliff Lee be a Hall of Famer?

There have been 25 players inducted at Cooperstown in the last seven years. Nine of them were largely starting pitchers (one was a “bad” starting pitcher in the 19th century but an early umpire), and only two were left-handers, like Lee.

Those were Randy Johnson in 2015 and Tom Glavine the year before that. And a first glance at their records, then Lee’s, would perhaps suggest this evaluation: Cliff Lee is toast. He may not make it to the second ballot (with five percent of the votes cast this year), let alone ever be voted in.

Both Johnson and Glavine had more than 300 wins (and may be the last ever inducted to pass that milestone – the three starters inducted since 2015 posted between 203 and 270 wins). Meanwhile, Cliff Lee, who retired the year Glavine got his plaque, won a mere 143 games. Both Johnson and Glavine pitched 22 seasons; Lee pitched 13.

OK, let’s pick away at the numbers, and since this is all speculation, we can start with baseball’s most fanciful “measure” – WAR. Johnson’s career WAR was 101.1, or an average rounded figure of 4.6. Glavine’s career figure was 80.7, a 3.7 average.

Cliff Lee’s figure was 43.5, which works out to 3.3.

The high water mark WAR for Glavine was 8.5 (1991) – “MVP quality” (supposedly 8-plus). Johnson’s was 10.7 (2002) – definitely MVP quality. In fact, Johnson hit 8.0 or better seven times; Glavine did it once.

Lee had one 8-plus, an 8.5 in 2011, with the 102-win Phillies. So, arguably Lee equals Glavine there, but definitely doesn’t reach Johnson.

How about WHIP, a very useful figure once you figure out that the acceptable range is really pretty narrow? The proper MLB WHIP runs, more or less, from 0.900 (very, very good) through 1.500 (not so hot at all).

Johnson ran his whole career with a 1.171 WHIP; yes, the figures after he was 40 weren’t that wonderful, but at 40 he had a 0.900, which led the NL, in 245.2 innings. On the other hand, Glavine’s Hall of Fame-worthy WHIP was 1.314.

Cliff Lee’s career WHIP was 1.196, a fairly interesting figure for a pitcher determined to throw strikes.

How about career FIP, which has seemingly replaced ERA as a vital figure in the 21st century? Johnson – 3.19; Glavine – 3.95; Lee – 3.45. And to cherry-pick, in his last two seasons, Lee’s FIP figures were below 3.00, while Glavine and Johnson’s four last-campaign figures ran between 3.76 (Johnson in Arizona at age 44) and 6.02 (Glavine in Atlanta at 42).