Phillies: The most intriguing case for Cliff Lee to the Hall of Fame

But – Longevity Means Nothing?

Still, you say, the longevity thing must count for something. In Lee’s last season, he was 35. And Johnson and Glavine both had over 465 decisions, Glavine over 500. OK, Cliff Lee definitely won’t be a first-ballot selection. He had 234 decisions; on the other hand, he lost 75 fewer regular-season games than Johnson, and 112 fewer than Glavine.

However, are there HOF left-handed starters who are fairly comparable to Lee? And how much should we take into account different eras?

It seems fairly indisputable that as time has moved on, MLB thinking has upended the notion of the value of a starting pitcher who goes deep into games, thus limiting wins (decision) potential. On the other hand, Cliff Lee frequently pitched into the late innings of his games. (Take a look at his game log for the first three months of the 2011 season, for example.)

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Let’s get back to comparable HOF lefties. Two with records quite like Lee’s were Lefty Gomez (1930-43) and Sandy Koufax (1955-66), and any time Koufax is added to your side of an argument, your prospects brighten considerably.

Oddly, both were voted into the HOF in 1972, Koufax by baseball writers and Gomez by the Veteran’s Committee.

Gomez was a Yankee for all but one of his 14 seasons, many of them with very strong teams; Koufax was a Dodger his entire, 12-year career, also often with quite strong teams. Cliff Lee pitched his 13 campaigns with so-so Cleveland squads except in 2007 (not actually a successful year for him personally), and with excellent Philadelphia teams for a year and a half, broken up by a year involving short stints in Seattle and Texas. His three other years with the Phillies involved team losing records twice and a .500 finish.

Gomez won 189 of his 291 decision games (.649); Koufax took 165 of his 252 decisions (.655); Lee’s 143 wins gave him a .611 figure.

Koufax’s average WAR was 4.1, or 0.8 better than Lee’s; Gomez’ average was 2.7, or 0.6 behind Lee.

Gomez was an All-Star seven times, and compiled a 6-0 post-season record (2.86 ERA); Koufax went to the mid-summer classic six times, won three Cy Young trophies, and was 4-3 in the post-season. His aggregate October ERA was a ridiculous 0.95.

Cliff Lee was an All-Star four times and won a Cy Young Award with Cleveland. His post-season record was 7-3 (2.52 ERA). He was the only Phillies pitcher to beat New York (twice) in the 2009 World Series and will be forever a Philadelphia legend for nonchalantly sneering at the Yankees as he caught a pop-up on the mound in that Series.

Bottom line: If Lee had played for teams in the very largest media markets, there might well be a drumbeat for his induction based on his competitive drive, his “grit.” As it is, though, he might well need to wait 10 years, or forever, to be inducted.

Maybe the real question, however, should be: Is Cliff Lee more worthy of Hall of Fame induction than the steroid cheats riding off into the sunset now?