Houston Astros: how many draft picks will be taken away?

As we continue to wait for more details regarding the Houston Astros sign-stealing scandal, one thing’s beginning to be certain… draft picks will be lost.

I wrote a piece last week, highlighting the details of an email sent out by Houston Astros‘ special assistant to the GM, Kevin Goldstein. The statements within that released email certainly didn’t assist in the Astros’ defense, as the memo gave MLB proof that the sign-stealing, using live video feed from cameras and other means, wasn’t just a ground-level act.

There are employees within the Astros’ front office that were, at the very least, aware of these actions.

Ever since the first report came out, there has 3rdbeen a constant back-and-forth debate over exactly what the consequences will be for the Astros. Will someone be fired? Will wins be vacated? Will the organization just be fined?

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Since this is a bit of an unknown, in terms of organizational bad behavior (at least that we know of), no one really knows for sure what MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred will do. Without any real precedent, it’s difficult to speculate.

However, if Manfred plans to stick with his precept from 2017 — when the Boston Red Sox were caught cheating using an Apple Watch — the repercussions should be quite strong. Consider Manfred’s comments then, which can be found in a recent FanGraphs’ piece by Craig Edwards:

"“In assessing the significance of this violation, the investigation established three relevant points. First, the violation in question occurred without the knowledge of ownership or front office personnel. Second, when the Red Sox learned of the Yankees’ complaint, they immediately halted the conduct in question and then cooperated completely in my investigation. I have received absolute assurances from the Red Sox that there will be no future violations of this type. Third, our investigation revealed that Clubs have employed various strategies to decode signs that do not violate our rules. The Red Sox’ strategy violated our rules because of the use of an electronic device.“Taking all of these factors as well as past precedent into account, I have decided to fine the Red Sox an undisclosed amount which in turn will be donated by my office to hurricane relief efforts in Florida. Moreover, all 30 Clubs have been notified that future violations of this type will be subject to more serious sanctions, including the possible loss of draft picks."

Thanks to the Red Sox “complete cooperation”, it seems clear that Manfred perhaps spared the Red Sox back in 2017. It’s conceivable that the consequences heading the Red Sox way two years ago could’ve been worse if not for, as stated in the quote above…  “immediately halting the conduct in question and then cooperating completely in my investigation”.

That may mean trouble for the Houston Astros, who to this point, seem to have done nothing but attempt to cover up and hide their actions, even after Manfred’s past warnings.

The warning is right there in the print, that future violations will be more serious and include the loss of draft picks. For anyone still trying to figure out what’s coming for the Astros, I think it’s safe to say we at least know their 2020 draft picks aren’t safe.

The latest somewhat insidious act coming from the Astros’ camp was from the organization’s owner, Jim Crane, who according to ESPN, declined to comment on the investigation on Wednesday.

From ESPN’s report:

"When someone started to ask if he had any comment about the allegations, Crane responded with “any other issues,” before being escorted away by two sheriff’s deputies working security in the lobby."

It has also been reported that on Tuesday Manfred said he hopes the investigation will be completed by next season and that “he has authority to impose discipline beyond the loss of amateur draft picks.”

That, much more recent statement, alone feels as if draft picks should be the least of the Astros’ worry. And that’s the other angle to this situation: what if Manfred does indeed make an example out of the Astros?

In my last piece, I opined that it may be more accurate to expect more consequences rather than less, and even more so now, my feelings are the same. This may get ugly for the Houston Astros. By the time it’s all over, next year’s draft picks may not even be a cause for concern.