Philadelphia Phillies: What To Do With Rhys Hoskins
By CJ Luther
Behind Hoskins’ Brutal Slump
Look at Hoskins’ 2019 season in its entirety, and his numbers are actually quite good, albeit slightly below his 2018 output. Overall, he slashed .226/.364/.454 with 29 HRs, amassing 2.2 fWAR. His walk rate and strikeout rate both improved, as well as his Hard%. However, when looking into his two-month slump that carried through the end of the season, it seems that a few sudden changes turned Hoskins from a fearsome power bat into a hitter pitchers feasted on.
Pitchers tend to attack Hoskins with a steady diet of fastballs and sliders, which account for upwards of 60% of the pitches he sees, regardless of the count of the at-bat. This strategy shifted slightly in August, where Hoskins was thrown less breaking pitches in exchange for fastballs up in the zone. Hoskins, who thrives when attack pitches low in the zone, failed to adjust.
In August, a season-high 62.27% of all pitches Hoskins was thrown were fastballs. Knowing that those aren’t pitches he excels with, Hoskins swung less on heaters. When he decided to swing, he hit groundballs far too often – not a wise strategy for a hitter who faced the shift in 45% of his at-bats in August.
An uptick in fastballs wasn’t the true issue at the core of this slump, however. In laying off of high heat, Hoskins showed his hand – he was waiting on low breaking balls. Pitchers knew this, and in turn, began throwing less of them for strikes.
In August and September, Hoskins saw significantly more breaking balls out of the zone than he did earlier in the season. He couldn’t help but swing, evidenced by a climbing whiff rate than peaked at a massive 19.77% in September.
With fastballs shifting upwards and breaking pitches falling below the zone, Hoskins struggled to produce. The low breaking balls he once crushed were no more, as he failed to adjust to this altered pitch breakdown. The gap between pitch density grew, and Hoskins found himself dangling in the middle – his ISO dropped to .161, rendering his bat weakened.
Now that we’ve seen what happened to Hoskins as the 2019 season came to a close, the question now becomes whether or not the Philadelphia Phillies can trust that’ll turn things around.