Realmuto, 2020 Phillies profiting from a rule change

Strategy:       

Because the Phillies have $21.66 million AAV for now, they will be short of the $30 million AAV predicted for Gerrit Cole. Plus non-tendering Franco will only increase the tally to $28.36 million, and Klentak will either exceed the CBT to draw a penalty for the ace or create more CBT payroll flexibility. So, who else won’t return?

Center fielder Herrera, almost 28, has four complete seasons in the majors, and his contract is $6.1 million AAV with five years of control remaining. Fortunately, the major leagues has a shortage of center fielders, and a traded, talented Herrera may get a second chance elsewhere.

Due to injured outfielders and a suspension, the red pinstripes advanced Adam Haseley after only 18 Triple-A games. But though he handled himself with glove and bat (.266), some fans may label him a fourth outfielder. Yes, if he was a veteran reserve, that would be correct, but he did it as a rookie called up before 2021.

Hernandez is entering his final arbitration summer with an estimate of $11.8 million, but second base is Scott Kingery‘s best position. And although free agency has many second sackers, Hernandez has a better track record than most available competitors. Unfortunately, he may be too expensive for some franchises.

At the hot corner, one interesting possibility is Mike Moustakas, 31, who hit .251 with 35 bombs and 87 RBIs. And the left-handed hitter could bat fifth with Segura, Kingery and Haseley behind him. However, the Fightins may need a two-campaign proposal of $7 million AAV because he would probably be moving his family.

While Alec Bohm is the future third baseman, management would prefer not rushing him to the Show. Plus they don’t want to prematurely burn a roster slot, and they want to see how he handles adversity. So far, he has 1.5 years of four MiLB seasons total before needing 40-man protection.

Dollars for 2020:           

If the Phillies free up $24.6 million with transactions involving Franco, Herrera and Hernandez, they will have $46.26 million AAV available. But they must fill other spots like they did last winter before signing Harper. Translation: They won’t count on Cole joining the team.

Using that approach, they could work out a deal with Hamels for $10 million AAV (see page one), and Klentak could ink Moustakas for $7 million AAV. That $17 million AAV tally would leave $29.26 million for pitching.

Route one: The front office could add a club option for Cole’s eighth summer with a $10 million buyout. They could guarantee $30 million per 162 for seven campaigns plus the buyout for $220 million total and a $27.5 million AAV. However, the new pitching coach and Joe Girardi must develop Dominguez into a solid bullpen option.

Alternative route: The Phils could acquire Hyun-Jin Ryu for $15.5 million AAV: $18 million each for three years and a team option with an $8 million buyout for $62 million total. And this path would leave $13.76 million AAV for a solid reliever like Daniel Hudson and a trading deadline addition as well.

To sum up, the Fightins could either add Hamels, Moustakas and Cole to Realmuto; or they could pick up Hamels, Moustakas, Ryu and Hudson while extending the All-Star catcher. On the other hand, what is one pitching consideration that will automatically change the runs allowed from 2019 to 2020? A hurler-friendly ball!

The Numerical Bible:

This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.

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Phillies hitting target:

• Moustakas, 31: 143 Gms., 584 PA, a .254 Avg., a .329 OBP, a .516 SLG, a .262 ISO, a .250 BABIP, 35 HR, 87 RBI, an .845 OPS and a 2.8 fWAR.

Phillies right-handed targets: 

• Cole, 29: 33 Gms., 212 1/3 Inn., 20-5, a 2.50 ERA, a 2.64 FIP, a 2.48 xFIP, a 2.62 SIERA, a 7.4 fWAR and a 0.89 WHIP.
• Strasburg, 31: 33 Gms., 209 Inn., 18-6, a 3.32 ERA, a 3.25 FIP, a 3.17 xFIP, a 3.49 SIERA, a 5.7 fWAR and a 1.04 WHIP.
• Wheeler, 29.5: 31 Gms., 195 1/3 Inn., 11-8, a 3.96 ERA, a 3.48 FIP, a 4.06 xFIP, a 4.20 SIERA, a 4.7 fWAR and a 1.26 WHIP.

Phillies southpaw targets: 

• Ryu, 32.5: 29 Gms., 182 2/3 Inn., 14-5, a 2.32 ERA, a 3.10 FIP, a 3.32 xFIP, a 3.77 SIERA, a 4.8 fWAR and a 1.01 WHIP.
• Bumgarner, 30: 34 Gms., 207 2/3 Inn., 9-9, a 3.90 ERA, a 3.90 FIP, a 4.31 xFIP, a 4.15 SIERA, a 3.2 fWAR and a 1.13 WHIP.
• Hamels, almost 36: 27 Gms., 141 2/3 Inn., 7-7, a 3.81 ERA, a 4.09 FIP, a 4.38 xFIP, a 4.55 SIERA, a 2.5 fWAR and a 1.39 WHIP.
• Keuchel, almost 32: 19 Gms., 112 2/3 Inn., 8-8, a 3.75 ERA, a 4.72 FIP, a 4.06 xFIP, a 4.39 SIERA, a 0.8 fWAR and a 1.37 WHIP.

Phillies targets’ statistical results toward 75-80 percent:  

• Hudson: 47 good, 7 so-so and 15 bad (1 blowup) out of 69 total for 78.3%
  With Washington: 17 good, 3 so-so and 4 bad (0 blowups) out of 24 total for 83.3%
• Harris: 54 good, 6 so-so and 8 bad (0 blowups) out of 68 total for 88.2%
• Pomeranz: 22 good (1 opener), 3 so-so and 4 bad (0 blowups) out of 29 total for 86.2%

Phillies bullpen targets: 

• Hudson, 32.5:
• Total: 69 Gms. (1 opener), 73 Inn., a 2.47 ERA, 8 Saves, 11 Holds, a 3.97 FIP, a 5.08 xFIP, a 4.31 SIERA, a 0.9 fWAR and a 1.14 WHIP.
  Nationals: 24 Gms., 25 Inn., a 1.44 ERA, 6 Saves, 3 Holds and a 0.88 WHIP.
• Harris, 35: 68 Gms., 60 Inn., a 1.50 ERA, 4 Saves, 26 Holds, a 3.15 FIP, a 3.04 xFIP, a 3.18 SIERA, a 1.1 fWAR and a 0.93 WHIP.
• Pomeranz, 31: 29 Gms., 28 2/3 Inn., a 1.88 ERA, 2 Saves, 12 Holds, 0 BS, a 1.92 FIP and a 1.67 xFIP.

If you have any questions or opinions regarding the Philadelphia Phillies players, please open the comments section.