Realmuto, 2020 Phillies profiting from a rule change

Realizing one small detail, the Phillies faithful can now view the trade for the All-Star catcher acquired by general manager Matt Klentak with less concern and more confidence for ’20 and beyond.

Massaging the extension numbers:   

When the Philadelphia Phillies moved their top prospect and best MiLB pitcher with their developing receiver to the Miami Marlins for J.T. Realmuto, the fan base had mixed emotions. What will happen if Realmuto tests free agency after only two campaigns in Philly? Now: What rule change?

IN OTHER WORDS: “Knowledge is the driving force that puts creative passion to work.” – Maurice Sendak

Because the Fightins agreed to $488 million in commitments last offseason, their new tally is at $186.34 million AAV (average annual value), which is under the CBT (competitive-balance threshold) of $208 million. And their goals are a contract extension for Realmuto, two starters, two relievers and a third baseman.

Conveniently, the rule change in 2011’s CBA (collective bargaining agreement) allows the Phils to sign Realmuto now with the 2021 season as the pact’s first year. As for 2020, the estimated arb amount is $10.3 million included in the $186.34 million AAV. So, Klentak can re-up Realmuto for $20 million per 162 with no affect on ’20.

Realmuto will benefit because his deal will now be separate from the organization’s financial situation regarding the rotation and relief corps. Additionally, the team will also profit by limiting the backstop’s AAV to $10.3 million or so for 2020, so they can completely address their pitching shortcomings.

With $21.66 million AAV available, Klentak must replace regulars who have in-house alternatives to increase that tally and pick up hurlers. Basically, Maikel Franco ($6.7 million AAV), Odubel Herrera ($6.1 million AAV) and Cesar Hernandez ($11.8 million AAV) would add $24.6 million AAV: The new total would be $46.26 million AAV.

How healthy Seranthony Dominguez is, and the bullpen role the execs believe he can handle will determine their decisions for the five-man staff and the back end of the pen. But if he can field critical innings with Hector Neris, Klentak may ink a solid fireman and swap for a developing flamethrower as a backup plan.

Meanwhile, Cole Hamels is willing to accept a one-summer offer of $15 million, but Klentak could creatively include $5 million guaranteed for a second campaign, easily attainable incentives, and an opt-out clause after ’20 to engineer a $10 million AAV. Plus the GM can ink Hamels and monitor the top free-agent starters.

Strategy:       

Because the Phillies have $21.66 million AAV for now, they will be short of the $30 million AAV predicted for Gerrit Cole. Plus non-tendering Franco will only increase the tally to $28.36 million, and Klentak will either exceed the CBT to draw a penalty for the ace or create more CBT payroll flexibility. So, who else won’t return?

Center fielder Herrera, almost 28, has four complete seasons in the majors, and his contract is $6.1 million AAV with five years of control remaining. Fortunately, the major leagues has a shortage of center fielders, and a traded, talented Herrera may get a second chance elsewhere.

Due to injured outfielders and a suspension, the red pinstripes advanced Adam Haseley after only 18 Triple-A games. But though he handled himself with glove and bat (.266), some fans may label him a fourth outfielder. Yes, if he was a veteran reserve, that would be correct, but he did it as a rookie called up before 2021.

Hernandez is entering his final arbitration summer with an estimate of $11.8 million, but second base is Scott Kingery‘s best position. And although free agency has many second sackers, Hernandez has a better track record than most available competitors. Unfortunately, he may be too expensive for some franchises.

At the hot corner, one interesting possibility is Mike Moustakas, 31, who hit .251 with 35 bombs and 87 RBIs. And the left-handed hitter could bat fifth with Segura, Kingery and Haseley behind him. However, the Fightins may need a two-campaign proposal of $7 million AAV because he would probably be moving his family.

While Alec Bohm is the future third baseman, management would prefer not rushing him to the Show. Plus they don’t want to prematurely burn a roster slot, and they want to see how he handles adversity. So far, he has 1.5 years of four MiLB seasons total before needing 40-man protection.

The Numerical Bible:

This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.

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Phillies hitting target:

• Moustakas, 31: 143 Gms., 584 PA, a .254 Avg., a .329 OBP, a .516 SLG, a .262 ISO, a .250 BABIP, 35 HR, 87 RBI, an .845 OPS and a 2.8 fWAR.

Phillies right-handed targets: 

• Cole, 29: 33 Gms., 212 1/3 Inn., 20-5, a 2.50 ERA, a 2.64 FIP, a 2.48 xFIP, a 2.62 SIERA, a 7.4 fWAR and a 0.89 WHIP.
• Strasburg, 31: 33 Gms., 209 Inn., 18-6, a 3.32 ERA, a 3.25 FIP, a 3.17 xFIP, a 3.49 SIERA, a 5.7 fWAR and a 1.04 WHIP.
• Wheeler, 29.5: 31 Gms., 195 1/3 Inn., 11-8, a 3.96 ERA, a 3.48 FIP, a 4.06 xFIP, a 4.20 SIERA, a 4.7 fWAR and a 1.26 WHIP.

Phillies southpaw targets: 

• Ryu, 32.5: 29 Gms., 182 2/3 Inn., 14-5, a 2.32 ERA, a 3.10 FIP, a 3.32 xFIP, a 3.77 SIERA, a 4.8 fWAR and a 1.01 WHIP.
• Bumgarner, 30: 34 Gms., 207 2/3 Inn., 9-9, a 3.90 ERA, a 3.90 FIP, a 4.31 xFIP, a 4.15 SIERA, a 3.2 fWAR and a 1.13 WHIP.
• Hamels, almost 36: 27 Gms., 141 2/3 Inn., 7-7, a 3.81 ERA, a 4.09 FIP, a 4.38 xFIP, a 4.55 SIERA, a 2.5 fWAR and a 1.39 WHIP.
• Keuchel, almost 32: 19 Gms., 112 2/3 Inn., 8-8, a 3.75 ERA, a 4.72 FIP, a 4.06 xFIP, a 4.39 SIERA, a 0.8 fWAR and a 1.37 WHIP.

Phillies targets’ statistical results toward 75-80 percent:  

• Hudson: 47 good, 7 so-so and 15 bad (1 blowup) out of 69 total for 78.3%
  With Washington: 17 good, 3 so-so and 4 bad (0 blowups) out of 24 total for 83.3%
• Harris: 54 good, 6 so-so and 8 bad (0 blowups) out of 68 total for 88.2%
• Pomeranz: 22 good (1 opener), 3 so-so and 4 bad (0 blowups) out of 29 total for 86.2%

Phillies bullpen targets: 

• Hudson, 32.5:
• Total: 69 Gms. (1 opener), 73 Inn., a 2.47 ERA, 8 Saves, 11 Holds, a 3.97 FIP, a 5.08 xFIP, a 4.31 SIERA, a 0.9 fWAR and a 1.14 WHIP.
  Nationals: 24 Gms., 25 Inn., a 1.44 ERA, 6 Saves, 3 Holds and a 0.88 WHIP.
• Harris, 35: 68 Gms., 60 Inn., a 1.50 ERA, 4 Saves, 26 Holds, a 3.15 FIP, a 3.04 xFIP, a 3.18 SIERA, a 1.1 fWAR and a 0.93 WHIP.
• Pomeranz, 31: 29 Gms., 28 2/3 Inn., a 1.88 ERA, 2 Saves, 12 Holds, 0 BS, a 1.92 FIP and a 1.67 xFIP.

If you have any questions or opinions regarding the Philadelphia Phillies players, please open the comments section.