Boston Red Sox: 3 reasons why they won’t make the playoffs in 2020
After a disappointing season, there are many questions surrounding the Boston Red Sox this offseason. While a lot can change from now until the spring, both the immediate and long-term future looks bleak for Boston.
The Boston Red Sox won the 2018 World Series in dominant fashion. They steamrolled the competition, going 11-3 in October en route to their 9th championship in franchise history. With much of the same roster returning in 2019, they were expected to compete for another title.
However, that was not the case. The Sox got off to a tough start in 2019. After the first 30 games of the season, they were a disappointing 13-17, which was good for 4th in the AL East. They recovered in the coming months, finishing with a 49-41 record at the All-Star break. However, they were not able to keep up with the Yankees and the Rays and were eliminated from playoff contention on September 20th.
While an 84-78 doesn’t scream disappointment for most MLB franchises, it certainly does when you’re the reigning champions, and carry the largest payroll in the league. They were not helped by injuries, with three of their expensive starters, Chris Sale, David Price, and Nathan Eovaldi all having season-ending injuries.
Their 2019 failures prompted the Red Sox to shake up their front office. They fired former President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski, replacing him with 36-year-old Chaim Bloom. Bloom has a challenging task ahead of him. He needs to figure out ways to shed some of their expensive payrolls and improve their farm system. However, he must do so without completely tanking. The word “rebuild” is not in Boston’s vocabulary.
Frustrated Red Sox fans are looking for reasons to be optimistic about their immediate future. However, there is a lot of work to be done in this crucial offseason for Boston. But for now, their 2020 outlook is not looking too bright. Here are three reasons why the Boston Red Sox will not make the playoffs in 2020.
Boston Red Sox 2020 Outlook
Expensive contracts come back to bite
Chaim Bloom will inherit a Red Sox organization that does not have a lot of money to spend. According to Statista, the Red Sox had a payroll of $213.19 million on opening day last season, which the highest of any team in the major leagues. That put them $7.19 million over the luxury tax. The only other team to exceed the luxury tax in 2019 was the Chicago Cubs, who have many problems of their own.
A large chunk of that payroll belongs to their two former All-Star lefty starters, David Price and Chris Sale. Sale signed a massive 5-year, $145 million extensions last offseason, and is owed $117.5 from now until 2024. Price signed the largest contract for a starting pitcher in MLB history at the time in 2016. He is set to earn $32 million per year until 2022.
Others set to earn over $20 million next year is Xander Bogaerts, and J.D. Martinez, who decided not to opt-out of his massive contract.
The massive payroll paid off in 2018 but now makes the future beyond 2020 very uncertain. As a result, there has been a parade of trade rumors surrounding some of the BoSox’s best players. The guy in the middle of every rumor is former MVP, Mookie Betts. Betts is coming off another spectacular year, where he earned his fourth career Gold Glove and third career Silver Slugger. However, Betts is in his final year of arbitration and has made it clear that he won’t take a discount in order to stay with the Red Sox.
Thus, it makes sense for the Red Sox to try to move him. He would require a massive prospect package that could change the future of the organization. However, he is owed $30 million this year before he becomes an unrestricted free agent, so teams might be reluctant to give up their top prospects for one year of Betts. He has repeatedly turned down extension offers from the Red Sox, so there is no guarantee that Betts would sign long term with the team that trades for him.
Therefore, the Red Sox’ astronomically high payroll will prevent them from signing free agents that can help them today, and could possibly prevent them from moving heavy contracts that would help them tomorrow.
Boston Red Sox 2020 Outlook
Pitching woes continue
The 2018 World Series team was carried by a relentless offense, dominant starting pitching, and one of the best relievers in the game to close the door. In 2019, the offense remained potent, but the pitching crumbled.
Without the security of having Craig Kimbrel to close out games, the Red Sox struggled to find a replacement. They blew a league-high 31 saves, and finished in the bottom half of the league in most major categories. Brandon Workman emerged as the team’s primary closer, but the lack of legitimate back-end relievers cost the Red Sox games.
Everyone expected their bullpen to decline in 2019, but no one expected their starting rotation to struggle the way they did. They produced a lackluster 4.95 ERA, which ranked 20th in all of baseball. Chris Sale was simply not himself in his 30-year-old campaign. After 7 straight All-Star appearances, the lefty posted a 4.40 ERA in 25 starts before being shut down with an elbow injury. This was the second straight year he failed to surpass 200 innings pitched, which should concern Red Sox fans.
David Price and Nathan Eovaldi also underperformed and also were shut down due to injuries. Rick Porcello has fallen from grace after winning the AL Cy Young in 2016, and their best starter was Eduardo Rodriguez.
With a lack of resources to deploy, it is unlikely that the Red Sox will find high-quality solutions to the holes in both their starting rotation and bullpen. Their best bet is to invest in their farm system, and hope that Price, Sale, and Eovaldi become healthy and return to the pitchers they were in 2018. Their offense still has plenty of firepower, but you can’t win games in the MLB without good pitching.
Boston Red Sox 2020 Outlook
Depleted farm system makes the future grim
The Boston Red Sox went all in to make themselves a championship team in 2018. They gave up key prospects to acquire the likes of Price, Sale, and Eovaldi and focused their resources on signing major league talent rather than building up their farm system. Now, the future looks grim.
The Red Sox’ farm system lacks significant talent on all levels. Based on their prospect points system, MLB.com ranked the Red Sox’ farm system dead last in the league. Teams like the Yankees, Astros, Braves, and Dodgers have proven that long-term success requires a large investment in the farm system of an organization, and the Red Sox failed to do so under the leadership of Dave Dombrowski.
Michael Chavis was their top-rated prospect heading into the 2019 season, and he proved to be a serviceable major league player. He will need to improve his strikeout tendencies if he wants to take his game to the next level. However, Chavis left a noticeable hole at the top of the Red Sox’ prospect rankings.
According to MLB Pipeline, the Red Sox only have one prospect in the top 100. That would be 1B/3B Triston Casas. The 19-year-old Florida native is ranked 85th, although he has never played in a level higher than high A ball. After Casas, the list gets increasingly weak the further you go down. There is some talent, including RHP Bryan Mata, and 1B Bobby Dalbec, but they are incredibly thin in legitimate depth.
It will be tough for the Sox to compete with the Yankees and Rays, who each have top-10 ranked farm systems unless Chaim Bloom is able to make some magical, franchise-altering trades this offseason, or at the deadline in 2020.
With a lack of money, expensive, tough-to-trade contracts, and a horrible farm system, the Boston Red Sox appear poised to disappoint again in 2020. It will be hard for Red Sox fans in the coming years, as the Yankees and Rays will constantly remind them of how they failed to build for long-term success beyond 2018.