New York Mets: Simulating the offseason

The New York Mets have distinct holes on their roster. Let’s take a look at how they may fill those openings this offseason.

Heading into the offseason, the New York Mets have a few very distinct holes on their roster. With the likely departure of Zack Wheeler, they will need to find another arm for the rotation. The bullpen needs a complete overhaul. A backup catcher and a fourth outfielder capable of playing center would both be useful. Oh, and all of that needs to be accomplished with approximately $20 to $25 million in space.

That was the challenge we faced as the annual FanSided GM Meetings took place. Every year, we simulate the offseason, with editors and writers from each site taking on the general manager role of each team. This year, I took on the role of Brodie Van Wagenen and looked to fill out the Mets needs while remaining within that theoretical budget.

Naturally, this involved a good deal of bargain hunting in free agency. In the end, we signed five free agents, and made a trade with the Rockies, during the simulation. In doing do, our goals were achieved – the bullpen was strengthened and the Mets depth was improved. Also, all but one of these deals were one year contracts, keeping salary free to potentially sign Noah Syndergaard to a long term extension (our efforts were rebuffed during the simulation).

Here is what we came away with for the New York Mets during our simulation.

A swap of bad contracts

In our quest to upgrade the New York Mets bullpen, and unload a bad contract of our own, we made a trade with the Colorado Rockies. In exchange for Dominic Smith and Jed Lowrie, the Mets acquired Wade Davis and prospect Helcris Olivarez.

Let’s start with Olivarez. In his 60.2 innings in the Dominican Summer League and the Pioneer League, he posted a 3.68 ERA and a 1.401 WHiP, striking out 82 batters with 31 walks. Ranked as the Rockies 25th best prospect, the intriguing lefty has a mid 90s fastball, with the type of frame that projects to lead to increased velocity. His curve has a high spin rate, and flashes as a plus offering, but is inconsistent. Those inconsistencies also plague his change, as he has problems throwing either for strikes. But, as a high octane lefty with a high spin rate and a projectable body, he’s worth a look.

Now, to Davis. Yes, his 2019 campaign was a disaster, as he posted an 8.65 ERA and a 1.875 WHiP, striking out just 42 batters while issuing 29 walks in his 42.2 innings with the Rockies. Davis was even moved from the closer role last year, as it seemed that Coors Field had gotten into his head.

Davis also dealt with injuries last season, as he was sidelined for approximately three weeks with an oblique injury. Prior to that, he had a respectable 2.45 ERA, albeit with a high 1.500 WHiP and control issues. However, that could, presumably, have been explained by his injury.

It is also possible that he attempted to pitch through another injury last season. While he struggled in Colorado, Davis did have a 0.63 ERA on the road as of August 18. If he is healthy, getting Davis out of Colorado could allow him to regain his form as one of the better relievers in the game.

Davis also fits the type of player we were looking for. His contract expires after this season, and there is no reason for the Mets to pick up the $15 million option. In theory, this would become a player option if he finishes 30 games, but with Edwin Diaz still locked in as the closer, Davis would instead fill a setup role. And, if Diaz does continue to struggle, the Mets would have another proven closer ready to step in.

In exchange, we gave up Domonic Smith and Jed Lowrie. Smith, quite simply, is blocked by Pete Alonso and is not going to get a chance with the Mets. Lowrie barely played last season due to injury and is due $10 million next year. Subtracting Lowrie’s salary from Davis’ involves an increase of $7 million, which would be palatable if Davis rebounds away from Coors Field as one would expect.

However, even a healthy Wade Davis would not be enough to fix the New York Mets bullpen. As such, we did not stop there.

Bringing in two more relievers

In theory, four pitchers are locked into roles in the bullpen next year for the New York Mets. Edwin Diaz is going to remain as the Mets closer. Seth Lugo will likely remain as the fireman. Robert Gsellman was solid, and just as importantly, is not eligible for arbitration just yet. And Justin Wilson is the only lefty that is really worth noticing.

So, even though we spent a combined $9 million, the bullpen was a target. Depth was desperately needed if the Mets were going to look to contend in 2020. We were looking for another possible setup man, and another lefty reliever to fill out the bullpen.

First, we ended up signing a pitcher that is very familiar with New York in Dellin Betances. For years, he had been one of the premier setup men in the game, one of the top strikeout pitchers in the majors. However, last year, he faced all of two batters, as he missed most of the season with shoulder issues and tore his Achilles in his one outing. He is expected to be ready for Spring Training, which led to a one year deal worth $5.5 million – a bargain if he can return to the type of pitcher he had been.

Then, we added another left handed reliever in Jake Diekman, signing him to a two year deal worth a total of $3.5 million. His overall numbers were not special, as he posted a 4.65 ERA and a 1.419 WHiP, walking 39 batters in 62 innings. However, he also struck out 84 batters and held lefties to a .224/.362/.294 batting line over 105 plate appearances. As a middle relief option, he would be a second solid lefty in the bullpen.

With those two signings and the earlier trade, the New York Mets bullpen should be formidable. Now, to turn our attention elsewhere.

Adding a fifth starter

In theory, the New York Mets rotation is close to set for the coming year. With the quartet of Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, and Marcus Stroman, the Mets really just needed an innings eater in the back of the rotation.

With that in mind, and in keeping with the plan of adding players on a one or two year deal, we looked for the type of pitcher that could put up league average results on a relatively lower cost contract. To that end, we signed Ivan Nova to a one year deal worth $5 million.

Nova did not have the best season overall in 2019, posting an 11-12 record with a 4.72 ERA and a 1.455 WHiP, striking out 114 batters with 47 walks. However, he did lead the league with 34 starts, and pitched 187 innings. That would work perfectly for a fifth starter.

His season was also a tale of two halves. While Nova struggled in the first part of 2019, he righted the ship after the All Star Break. In his 87 innings in the second half, Nova posted a 7-5 record with a 3.72 ERA and a 1.368 WHiP, striking out 48 batters with 21 walks. Those numbers would be perfectly acceptable to round out the Mets rotation.

The New York Mets need someone that can take the ball every fifth day and eat innings to round out the rotation. Ivan Nova would fit that bill perfectly.