The Atlanta Braves have solid options for 2020

The Atlanta Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos has to decide whether to work free agency, his farm system or the trade market

Atlanta Braves fans worry a lot.

Consider the assets the Braves enter the 2020 season with.

In 2019 they were upper third in the majors in hits, runs, home runs, batting average, OPS…basically every important offensive category.

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They won the National League East by four games, recorded the franchise’s best record since 2003, and missed out on a trip to the NLCS – where they would have played a divisional rival they beat 11 times during the regular season – by the margin of one admittedly awful inning.

In Alex Anthopoulos, they have a general manager who, since his arrival two seasons ago, has presided over a 25-game uptick in the standings. And the core of their team has yet to see the 30th birthday, meaning there is plenty of room for growth.

Yet somehow, Braves fans spend the off-season imitating Eeyore, wondering whether anybody can be found to fill the perceived gaps on the mound, at third base and in the middle of the offense.

Whoa on the woe, gang.

The Atlanta Braves do enter the 2020 winter with needs, notably rotation depth and the gap at third base created by the departure of Josh Donaldson to free agency. But they also have Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna, and Ozzie Albies, each among the game’s best at what he does.

Couple that with the expected continued development of pitchers Max Fried and Mike Soroka and the Braves are well-positioned to erase the memory of that disastrous first inning against the Cardinals.

To supplement that core and cement Atlanta’s position as a post-season threat, Anthopoulos first must make a serious evaluation of the help, if any, he can expect to receive from the Braves’ farm system. In that respect, the obvious place to start is at third base, where Austin Riley was introduced in mid-season.

Riley batted only .226 in utility duty mostly in the outfield, but third base is viewed as his logical destination. He did deliver 18 home runs, suggesting he probably has the power to play a power position.

If Anthopoulos and manager Brian Snitker legitimately believe that the 24-year-old Riley is ready to handle the daily rigors of a lineup spot – a trait he showed during five minor league seasons —  then there’s no reason to chase after older and far more costly free-agent talent.

If the Braves do not see Riley developing as a regular, then they may have to chase a mid-order figure of the stripe of Mike Moustakas…who is certain to want a multi-year commitment. Given that he’s in his mid-20s, that kind of signing would signal that Atlanta is giving up on Riley.

The prevailing assumption – a well-founded one – is that the Braves will invest free agent time, energy and cash pursuing free-agent pitching, namely left-hander Madison Bumgarner. He’s a local boy with the post-season pedigree the Braves obviously lacked in 2019.

But Bumgarner is no slam-dunk pickup. At 30, he’s not unacceptably old, but his arm has nearly 2,000 innings worth of regular and post-season work on it. It’s certainly possible to throw more than 2,000 innings and hold up—Justin Verlander has 3,000 under his belt and he’s hanging in there – but Verlander was 21-6 with a 2.58 ERA last season.

Bumgarner was 9-9 with a 3.90 ERA, easily a career-worst.  Beyond that, his ERA+ has declined annually since 2016, from 146 to 107 this past season.

On the plus side, Bumgarner did show up for 34 starts and deliver 208 innings, so he can be counted on for the mid-rotation role he would be slotted for. With Fried, Soroka and Mike Foltyniewicz, the Braves have the top of the rotation covered.

The final question is a front office one: how much are the Atlanta Braves willing to spend this year? They’ve never opened a season with a 40-man payroll of more than $122 million, although with more than $105 million in commitments already on the books they’re virtually guaranteed to blow by that level on opening day 2020.

The mid-season additions of folks like Dallas Keuchel inflated their 2019 season-ending payroll to about $135 million. If they’re willing to go to $140 million, plausible pickups for the middle of the order include Yasiel  Puig, who would juice outfield production and fit in nicely behind Acuna and Freeman.

But Anthopoulos can also gamble on his system. Cristian Pache, the team’s top prospect is a 22-year-old right-handed outfielder who might be good enough to bolster both the offense and the outfield…and at far less cost than signing Puig would require.

The same story holds on the mound, where right-hander Ian Anderson, the Braves’ top 2016 pick, is projected to be ready if he can harness his control. With a 96 mph fastball, Anderson’s stuff is beyond question.

Finally, if the free-agent market proves too steep and Anthopoulos finds the idea of counting on kids unappealing, he could package Pache and Anderson in a deal for a proven offensive threat such as Chicago Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant.

Whichever way Anthopoulos chooses to play it, the Atlanta Braves have viable options entering 2020.