MLB drafts: 10 best selections from 2012-16

Rating the 10 most productive draft picks since the 2012 June MLB draft. The list features three third baseman among the top four.

The June draft is baseball’s version of roulette. Between 2012 and 2016, more than 6,000 prospects were selected by the 30 major league teams, but only about 10 percent have worn a big league uniform for as much as a day.

If a team identifies as few as two players who will eventually go on to become major league regulars, it’s had an excellent MLB draft.

Part of the problem involves baseball’s maturation system. It takes time for even a high pick to percolate through a team’s system to the bigs. Of the roughly 1,200 players taken in the June 2016 draft, only 68 have made a big-league roster. And that figure isn’t unduly influenced by lower-round picks; fewer than half that year’s first-round picks have made their way out of the minors and only a select few – Nick Senzel and Dakota Hudson being the exceptions – have established themselves.

That year’s No. 1 pick, Phillies outfield prospect Mickey Moniak, batted .252 this past season at Double-A.

So when a team watches a draft pick from any round – and especially a high pick – emerge into stardom, it’s worth a salute…particularly because while teams regularly guess wrong during the draft, correct guesses can pay off big.

In fact, draft picks made just since 2012 have played pivotal roles for three of the four most recent World Series winners, the only exception being the Washington Nationals.

Given MLB’s pay structure, drafting wisely is also the most cost-efficient way to produce talent.

Here’s a look at the 10 best draft picks since 2012. The measuring stick is average annual WAR since the player’s draft year, taking into consideration the drafts of 2012 through 2016. Officially that embraces 707 players.

Using average annual WAR since the player’s draft year – as opposed to the more standard average annual WAR – is done in order to underscore the importance of reaching the majors as quickly as possible.

MLB draft: 10 best selections from 2012-16

10. Corey Seager, (2012 draft) 2.54 average  WAR

The Dodgers operate one of baseball’s most skilled draft and development systems. Since 2012, they have drafted and produced three bulwarks of their 2017 and 2018 National League champions: Seager, Walker Buehler, and Cody Bellinger, as well as catcher Matt Beaty.

Seager was the 18th overall selection in the 2012 draft, taken out of high school in North Carolina. In nearly 400 games across parts of five minor league seasons, he batted .307

A September 2015 callup, Seager arrived for real in 2016 and won the shortstop job. He batted .308 with 26 home runs, made the All-Star team, winning Rookie of the Year and finishing third in the Most Valuable Player voting.

In 2017 Seager batted .295 with another 22 home runs and a second All-Star appearance. He fought through an injury-plagued 2018 but returned in 2019 to deliver a league-leading 44 doubles, a.272 average, and 19 home runs.

In his three full seasons – setting aside 2018 – Seager has averaged a 5.2 WAR contribution to the Dodgers cause, all of it while playing the most critical defensive position.

He’s done all that in a cost-efficient fashion. One of the virtues of succeeding in the draft is the relatively inexpensive cost of talent. Seager’s $5.69 million career earnings average out to $1.42 million per season, not bad at all for a consistent contributor.

MLB draft: 10 best selections from 2012-16

9. Michael Conforto, (2014 draft) 2.56 average WAR

Conforto was one of the most talked-about college sluggers – having led Oregon State to the 2013 College World Series semi-finals – when the Mets drafted him with the 10th pick of the first round in 2014.

With the Beavers, he had batted .335 and driven in 103 runs with an imposing .834 college OPS when the Mets took him. He signed within a month, and his college experience enabled Conforto to relatively race through the minors, debuting at Citi Field a little more than a year later.

Defensive questions prompted the Mets to shuttle Conforto between the minors and majors until 2017, when – in his first full season – he was named to the National League All-Star team. He hit 27 home runs that season 28 in 2018 and a career-best 33 in 2019, batting .257.

Despite that shuttle experience, Conforto has logged enough major league time to play in nearly  600 games and hit 109 home runs. His cumulative 12.8 WAR is topped by 3.9 in 2017 and 3.5 in 2019.

And like Seager, Conforto has delivered at a bargain rate. He’s earned $5.7 million to date, most of it in 2019 when he became arbitration-eligible.

Conforto is controllable through 2021.

MLB draft: 10 best selections from 2012-16

7. Cody Bellinger, (2013 draft), 2.90 average WAR

Like DeJong, Bellinger managed to slide all the way into the fourth round of his MLB draft, the Dodgers selected him out of Hamilton High School in Chandler, AZ., with the 124th choice in 2013.

He was a minor-league sensation, batting .312 in Rookie League ball in 2014 and hitting 56 home runs in 2015-16. Following a .333 start at AAA Oklahoma City, the Dodgers summoned him a few weeks into the 2017 season.

Splitting time between first base and the outfield, Bellinger hit 39 home runs as a rookie and won the Rookie of the Year Award. He followed that by playing all 162 games in 2018, and in 2019 his 47 home run, 115 RBI, .305 season was good enough to take the National League’s Most Valuable Player Award.

Bellinger has become a statistician’s dream player. In 2019 he delivered a 9.0 WAR and a 169  OPS+, labeling him as nearly 70 percent better than the average player. His OPS was 1.035; for context, a .750 OPS is considered average.

They don’t come more affordable than Bellinger, who has delivered all that productivity in exchange for a bit less than $1.7 million in career salary. He is only now beginning to reach arbitration eligibility.

MLB draft: 10 best selections from 2012-16

6. Carlos Correa, (2012 draft), 3.00 average WAR

Correa is by far the most prominent graduate of the Puerto Rico Baseball Academy, where he was playing when the Astros selected him with the first pick of the 2012 draft. He led an impressive draft class that also included Byron Buxton, Max Fried, and Lucas Giolito.

Correa’s minor league experience got off to a slow start, but he found his batting eye in 2013, batting .320 for Quad Cities in 2013 and .325 for Lancaster in 2014.

That performance at High A earned him a major-league look in 2015, and he batted .279 as the Astros took a wild card berth, winning the Rookie of the Year award. He was barely 20 years old.

When Houston won the 2017 World Series, Correa was a focal point at shortstop. Although limited by injuries to 109 games, he hit. 315 with 24 home runs. He batted .276 in Houston’s seven-game World Series victory over the Dodgers.

Since that World Series win, Correa’s production has tailed off, again largely due to injuries. He was a 6.1 WAR player in both 2016 and 2017 but has netted only a combined 4.6 WAR since then.

Correa will not be a free agent until the 2022 season.

MLB draft: 10 best selections from 2012-16

5. Aaron Judge (2013 draft), 3.10 average WAR

At 6-7 and more than 280 lbs., it was always hard to miss Judge’s potential; that’s why the Oakland Athletics drafted him out of Linden, Cal., High School late in the 2010 draft. Judge declined, opting instead for Fresno State, and batted .369 with a dozen home runs during the 2013 season.

The Yankees may have been surprised when Judge remained available to be taken with the 32nd pick of the 2013 draft. But it took some time for all of Judge’s potential to assimilate with his size. He played more than 350 minor league games – batting .276 – before being deemed ready for the majors.

The initial findings were mixed at best. Judge debuted in August of 2016 and got beat around; he batted .179 in 95 plate appearances, striking out 42 times.

He returned as a full-timer in 2017 and left a far more positive impression. Judge hit a rookie record 52 home runs won the Rookie of the Year Award and finished second behind Jose Altuve in Most Valuable Player voting.

It was an 8.1 WAR season.

Since then Judge has stabilized into a .275, 27 home run guy good for about 475 plate appearances and 5.5 WAR per season. Save for his too-frequent injury-driven absences, the Yanks would eagerly take that.

And he’s done it at a cost of less than $2 million to date.

MLB draft: 10 best selections from 2012-16

4. Matt Chapman (2014 draft), 3.70 average WAR

Chapman was a sophomore star at Cal State Fullerton’s two-time NCAA tournament team when the Athletics took him with the 25th pick of the 2014 MLB draft. At Fullerton Chapman had hit .312 as a sophomore. Signing as soon as his Titans were eliminated from tournament contention, he reported to the A’s rookie team, smashed six hits in his first 14 cuts, and within three games had his first promotion.

The A’s deemed Chapman ready for big-league competition in June of 2017; he hit just .234 but showed the defensive skills that would soon mark him as one of the game’s best infield defenders.

When his bat caught up with major league pitching, in time for the 2018 season he hit .278, delivered 24 home runs, and got Most  Valuable Player votes.

In his just-concluded season Chapman —  still only 26 – hit 36 home runs, drove in 91, and produced a .848 OPS, all of that explaining his first All-Star Game selection. In Oakland, he is now viewed as the cornerstone of the team’s playoff lineup.

And he’s done it all at a price tag even the Athletics can appreciate, costing a cumulative $1.7 million for his first three seasons. He’s almost certain to be a bargain again in 2020 because Chapman won’t be arbitration-eligible for another full year.

MLB draft: 10 best selections from 2012-16

3. Aaron Nola (2014 draft), 4.06 average WAR

If identifying draft talent is hard, honing in on mound talent is logarithmically more challenging. Of the 10 most productive draft choices since 2012, Nola is the only pitcher to make the list.

The Blue Jays selected Nola as a Louisiana high schooler in 2011, but he opted to sign with LSU instead. That made him available three years later when the Phillies selected seventh. They liked him enough to take him ahead of such prospects as Kyle Freeland, Michael Conforto, Trea Turner, Sean Newcomb, and Matt Chapman.

They had a reason. In two seasons at  LSU Nola had gone 23-2 in 33 starts, allowing just 41 earned runs in 242 innings of work. That’s a 1.52 ERA, and he fanned 256 opponents to boot.

Nola needed only 31 minor league appearances to persuade Phillies brass he was major league material. He debuted in July of 2015 with six innings, allowing Tampa Bay just one run but taking the 1-0 loss when his new teammates were held to four base hits.

Things got better. Nola won five of his final seven decisions that season, and by 2017 was an established part of Philadelphia’s rotation. He has a 53-35 career record in 127 big league starts.

He’s also proven durable, topping 200 innings in both 2018 and 2019.

MLB draft: 10 best selections from 2012-16

2. Kris Bryant (2013 draft), 4.18 average WAR

So highly thought of was Bryant coming out of the University of San Diego that it was surprising when the Astros, with the first pick of the 2013 draft, bypassed him in favor of a pitcher named Mark Appel. How’d that one work out?

The Cubs, with the second pick, used no time at all to gobble up Bryant, who has spent the ensuing six seasons making the Astros regret their judgment.

A .329 hitter with 31 home runs in college, Bryant famously spent parts of four seasons ‘proving’ himself in the minors before the Cubs promoted him late in April of 2015. Once in Chicago, he was an immediate star, hitting 26 home runs and driving in 99 runs as a rookie, good enough to win the Rookie of the Year Award.

One season later, when he helped take the Cubs to their first World Series victory in 108 seasons, Bryant hit 39 home runs, drove in 102 and batted .292. National League voters were sufficiently impressed to make him the Most Valuable Player.

Bryant’s 7.4 WAR that season remains his career-best, although at 6.1 he approached it in 2018. In part due to injuries, he has been less productive since then, but he still batted a credible .282 with 31 home runs in 2019.

MLB draft: 10 best selections from 2012-16

1. Alex Bregman (2015 draft), 5.20 average WAR

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On second thought, maybe the Astros aren’t too worked up over missing out on Bryant. Their consolation prize was Bregman.

They took him with the second selection of the 2015 draft, three years after the Red Sox tried and failed to sign him out of Albuquerque Academy. By 2015  Bregman was a star at LSU, carrying a .338  average through three college seasons that included appearances in the College World Series.

He lasted only 146 minor league games – batting .300 with 24 home runs – before the Astros got the point and summoned him in July of 2016.

Bregman’s chart has been on a steady uptick since then. His batting average, RBI total, WAR, OPS+ and walk total have all improved annually, to 41 homers, 112 RBIs, 1 .296 average, 119 walks, 162 OPS+ and 8.4 WAR in 2019. That was even more impressive than it looks because injuries forced Bregman to alternate between third base and shortstop.

Like many very productive MBL draft picks, Bregman’s production has come at a bargain-basement rate. He’s generated a total of 20.8 WAR to Houston’s regular-season success and its 2017 World Series win. And he did so at a cost of just $1.6 million.

His contributions, however, are soon to come at a steeper, if more equitable price. The Astros and Bregman agreed earlier this year to a new contract that will pay him $99 million through 2024.