Phillies: Trade wild-card player to fill wish list

The Phillies have a player they could move to save $12 million AAV (average annual value), and the faithful would consider this a no-brainer for general manager Matt Klentak if they only know this half of the situation.

Deal for dollars:   

This offseason, the Philadelphia Phillies have holes in the five-man staff, relief corps and the lineup, plus they might swap a regular to free up space under the $208 million CBT (competitive-balance threshold). And they could acquire a decent pitcher by including their wild card in a package to draw in a trade partner.

IN OTHER WORDS: “The secret of getting ahead is getting started. The secret of getting started is breaking your complex overwhelming tasks into small manageable tasks and starting on the first one.” – Mark Twain

Before the Winter Meetings begin on Dec. 9, the Fightins’ decisions to non-tender Maikel Franco and Cesar Hernandez with a contract have already determined the front office’s route for second and third base. Plus Klentak has a clearer picture of their potential replacements.

To succeed, Klentak must negotiate through a slow process with other execs and agents for deals and dollars. But a GM’s due diligence can confuse fans: He’s getting the lay of the land for players of some interest: free agents, other clubs’ asking prices, and offers for his personnel.

Realistically, financial resources determine signings and moves, whether they are a team’s market size or AAV limitations designed for parity by the lords of the MLB. Translation: Every franchise needs a mix of young, controllable talent and expensive stars. It’s almost a science!

Position-wise, the Phils prefer a left-handed bat for the infield –and Jean Segura could handle third or second– and they might want to swap their regular center fielder. Plus seven organizations are in the market for a limited number of center fielders.

Basically, free agency has many costly top starters, but some teams may deal a rotation piece entering his final 162 of organizational control. The market, though, only has a few remaining fireman to ink and a couple to trade for.

Presently, the red pinstripes have the $12 million AAV man in the final campaign of his three-season pact. And he’s the bargain Klentak can combine with Odubel Herrera to acquire a starter or reliever. Yes, he’s the wild card who can free up AAV dollars to make the exec more competitive for top-tier pitching.

Ace in the hole:     

What value would another team see in Jay Bruce of the Phillies? And why would Klentak hesitate to include him in a package? Well, the exec would love to free up $12 million AAV to pick up hurlers, but the Fightins are only paying Bruce $1.65 million for 2020. Questions answered!

The Jays might accept Bruce and prospects for Ken Giles, who has an $8.4 million final arb estimate before free agency. However, the Reds could be a match for Herrera and Bruce with closer Raisel Iglesias, who has $8.04 million AAV for two seasons. But they want to keep him.

Because Cincinnati is looking for offense, they would only add $1.65 million for Bruce and $7.35 million for Herrera, but they would deduct $9 million for Iglesias without increasing their payroll. Meanwhile, the red pinstripes would get the bullpen piece needed and deduct $10.06 million AAV.

The Reds could fill their need in center field, and simultaneously they’d have more money to improve their squad. But will they part with a fireman who had a somewhat down campaign (that homer ball?) after three consecutive solid ones?

The Arizona Diamondbacks are another possible trade partner with southpaw Robbie Ray for Bruce and MiLB pitching. Basically, Ray is in his final campaign before free agency, and Arizona will probably move him. But they want young, controllable pitching, and they are looking for payroll flexibility.

Financially, the Diamondbacks would add $1.65 million with Bruce and deduct an estimated $10.8 million with Ray for $9.15 million in savings. As for the Fightins, they would lower their AAV by $1.2 million, acquire a three-slot arm, and gain time in the Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg sweepstakes.

AAV Dollars:

While Bruce is the left-side bat off the bench and will only cost $1.65 million, the Phillies could shed $12 million AAV toward their pursuit of Cole. Yes, Klentak made the Seattle Mariners deal including 10 months of Bruce for $2.75 million total. But the GM’s detractors will point to some perceived error instead.

To illustrate, stating Klentak could have inked Corbin for $30 million AAV for three seasons ($90 million total) ignores that he signed for six years and $140 million: $23.33 million AAV. Most stars take the additional $50 million. Fuzzy-logic comparison: Player B still on the bench would surely succeed where pinch hitter A failed.

Phillies 2020 competitive-balance threshold of $208 million:

• Estimates began at $186.2 million AAV
• Franco: -$6.7 million by non-tendering him for $179.5 million AAV.
• Hernandez: -$11.8 million by non-tendering him for $167.7 million AAV.
• Bruce: -$12 million AAV via trade for $155.7 million AAV.
• $208 million AAV minus $155.7 million AAV equals $52.3 million AAV.

After moving Herrera:

• Herrera: -$6.1 million via trade for $149.6 million AAV.
• $208 million AAV minus $149.6 million AAV equals $58.4 million AAV.

To add free agents Cole and Didi Gregorius could cost $39 million AAV. And Cole’s commitment could be $220 million for seven summers including a $10 million buyout for an eighth campaign ($27.5 million AAV), while Gregorius’ deal could be $46 million including a $4 million buyout for three seasons ($11.5 million AAV).

With $52.3 million AAV after subtracting Franco, Hernandez and Bruce, the Phils could have $13.3 million AAV after acquiring Cole and Gregorius. But they could have $19.4 million AAV by also deducting Herrera. No, this won’t be a straight line to the playoffs for the faithful, but what will it be for Klentak? A zigzagging route!

The Numerical Bible:  

This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.

Phillies targets’ statistical results toward 75-80 percent:  

• Giles: 43 good, 2 so-so and 8 bad (0 blowups) out of 53 total for 84.9%
• Iglesias: 46 good, 3 so-so and *19 bad (2 blowups) out of 68 total for 72.1%
• *11 had HRs in a homer-friendly season.
• A blowup is 4 ER for less than 2 innings or 3 ER for less than 1 inning.

Phillies bullpen targets:

• Giles, 29: 53 Gms., 53 Inn., a 1.87 ERA, 23 Saves, 1 BS, a 2.27 FIP, a 2.73 xFIP, a 2.49 SIERA, a 1.8 fWAR and a 1.00 WHIP.
• Iglesias, almost 30: 68 Gms., 67 Inn., a 4.16 ERA, 34 Saves, 3 Holds, 6 BS, a 3.92 FIP, a 3.72 xFIP, a 3.22 SIERA, a 1.1 fWAR and a 1.22 WHIP.

Phillies right-handed targets: 

• Cole, 29: 33 Gms., 212 1/3 Inn., 20-5, a 2.50 ERA, a 2.64 FIP, a 2.48 xFIP, a 2.62 SIERA, a 7.4 fWAR and a 0.89 WHIP.
• Strasburg, 31: 33 Gms., 209 Inn., 18-6, a 3.32 ERA, a 3.25 FIP, a 3.17 xFIP, a 3.49 SIERA, a 5.7 fWAR and a 1.04 WHIP.
• Wheeler, 29.5: 31 Gms., 195 1/3 Inn., 11-8, a 3.96 ERA, a 3.48 FIP, a 4.06 xFIP, a 4.20 SIERA, a 4.7 fWAR and a 1.26 WHIP.

Phillies southpaw targets: 

• Ryu, 32.5: 29 Gms., 182 2/3 Inn., 14-5, a 2.32 ERA, a 3.10 FIP, a 3.32 xFIP, a 3.77 SIERA, a 4.8 fWAR and a 1.01 WHIP.
• Bumgarner, 30: 34 Gms., 207 2/3 Inn., 9-9, a 3.90 ERA, a 3.90 FIP, a 4.31 xFIP, a 4.15 SIERA, a 3.2 fWAR and a 1.13 WHIP.
• Hamels, almost 36: 27 Gms., 141 2/3 Inn., 7-7, a 3.81 ERA, a 4.09 FIP, a 4.38 xFIP, a 4.55 SIERA, a 2.5 fWAR and a 1.39 WHIP.
• Keuchel, almost 32: 19 Gms., 112 2/3 Inn., 8-8, a 3.75 ERA, a 4.72 FIP, a 4.06 xFIP, a 4.39 SIERA, a 0.8 fWAR and a 1.37 WHIP.
• Ray, 28: 33 Gms., 174 1/3 Inn., 12-8, a 4.34 ERA, a 4.29 FIP, a 3.76 xFIP, a 4.02 SIERA, a 2.4 fWAR and a 1.34 WHIP.

Phillies hitting target:

• *Gregorius, 29.5: 82 Gms., 344 PA, a .238 Avg., a .276 OBP, a .441 SLG, a .204 ISO, a .237 BABIP, 16 HR, 61 RBI, a .718 OPS and a 0.9 fWAR.
• * Injury-riddled season.

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