MLB Free Agent Tracker: Why Madison Bumgarner could be a steal
By Manny Gómez
The way the market currently looks for MLB free agent Madison Bumgarner (aka “MadBum”), teams would be stupid not to take a flyer.
MLB free agent Madison Bumgarner is being inexcusably undervalued this offseason. So, for your consideration, I’ve drawn up two comps to make a case for MadBum in an effort to make a case that he deserves more money.
First is Max Scherzer who was almost 30 when he signed a MLB free agent deal with the Washington Nationals in 2015 and second is Zack Wheeler, who will be close to 30 when the 2020 season kicks off.
When Scherzer signed his 7-year, $210M MLB free agent contract in 2015, it was the richest pitching deal. Before 2015, however, Scherzer was a pretty average pitcher. In fact, in 198 GS before 2015, he posted a 91-50 record with a 3.58 ERA, striking out 1321 batters in 1239.1 IP.
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The numbers were good and considering that he was coming off of a Cy Young Award in 2013 and three consecutive seasons of 200+ strikeouts. As a result, the market dictated a continued upswing in performance and he earned a $30M AAV deal over 7-years.
Conversely, you have the second comp, Wheeler. Like Scherzer, Wheeler was 29-years-old when he signed his 5-year, $118M MLB free agent deal with the Philadelphia Phillies. However, unlike Mad Max, Wheeler is coming off of quite a rocky start to his career.
In fact, since making his debut in 2013, Wheeler missed two seasons of big-league baseball, posting a 44-38 record in 126 GS. In his 5-year career, Wheeler has posted a 3.77 ERA, striking out 726 batters in 749.1 IP.
So, if Scherzer can garner a $30M AAV deal and Wheeler a $23.6M AAV, you’d have to think that Bumgarner should slot nicely somewhere in between.
First, over an 11-year career, he’s posted a 119-92 record with a 3.13 ERA. What’s more, he’s struck out 1794 batters over 1846 IP. Also, like Scherzer and Wheeler, MadBum just turned 30.
So why is he being valued at somewhere around $20M?
People will point to his “injury history” to mount a defense. Okay, let’s take a look at those injuries.
The first was a freak dirt bike incident that occurred in 2017. The incident sidelined MadBum for about half the season because he injured his shoulder on his pitching arm. The second was a fracture after a comebacker struck his pitching hand during Spring Training in 2018. This injury sidelined the lefty for a couple of months.
The results: his pitching velocity went from 91.7 before injuries (pre-2017) to… 91.7 after injuries (2019).
What hasn’t changed, however, is that, when something freakish doesn’t sideline the veteran, you can slot him in for 30+ starts per season, an ERA between 2.75-3.50, and 200+ IP. What’s more, he’ll cost you significantly less than pitchers like Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Gerrit Cole, and many more.
The point is this, teams like the New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Los Angeles Angels want to move heaven and earth for a pitcher like Cole. Understandably, he is currently the best pitcher on the planet.
Next. Is the Bronx the best landing spot for Cole?. dark
Is the difference between Cole and MadBum so drastic, however, that you wouldn’t consider adding Bumgarner and perhaps even another starter like, say, Hyun-Jin Ryu?
I’d say, absolutely not.