MLB Offseason: Madison Bumgarner owes Stephen Strasburg a thank you

The mega-deal signed by Stephen Strasburg on Monday just potentially made Madison Bumgarner even more unexpected money this MLB offseason.

There’s no doubt that Stephen Strasburg has so far won the MLB offseason, as the World Series MVP inked a ridiculous 7-year, $245 million super-deal with the only team he has ever known, the Washington Nationals. Sure, the Nats offered up another one of their specials, a contract that features $80 million in overall deferrals, but the deal still breaks David Price’s 7-year, $217 million pact with the Red Sox — making Strasburg an owner of the richest contract ever by a pitcher (at least until Gerrit Cole signs).

However, there’s another player that should’ve been out celebrating his new-earned fortunes on Monday night, though unsigned Madison Bumgarner technically hasn’t received them just yet. I’m afraid, Strasburg’s resetting of the market just made the former Giant a whole lot of money.

Coming into the current MLB offseason, Bumgarner was expected to command a contract around four years in length and $65 million in total value; however, in the last couple of weeks, his stock has risen with the great health of the FA market thus far (a subject I recently wrote about). Everyone’s signing multi-year deals! And these aren’t just a bunch of two-year contracts, but three and four-year deals as well.

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Adding even more stock to Bumgarner’s case to hit it big on the market this offseason is the fact that the 30-year-old has been working on an incredibly team-friendly deal his entire career with the SF Giants, not even cracking a $1 million salary until the 2013 season (after he had already made 84 starts and won 36 games, including assisting the Giants in winning a World Series in 2012).

After that title season, Bumgarner felt a little bump in his yearly earnings as he and the Giants agreed on a 5-year, $35 million extensions, a contract worth 10 times more overall than what he had made in his previous four seasons combined; though, using the admittedly sloppy but roundabout $9M/WAR rate, the extension was still worth half of Bumgarner’s true value.

The point is… the man they call MadBum has consistently been an underpaid pitcher in the majors, despite being a four-time All-Star, NLCS and World Series MVP and finishing within the top-10 of the Cy Young vote five different times. Bumgarner and his agent are looking to get paid.

What he could realistically receive?

The projections vary, as Bumgarner looks to perhaps commanding a deal in between that of Zack Wheeler‘s (5-year, $118 million) and Strasburg’s signed on Monday.

According to Spotrac and the site’s new Market Value tool, Bumgarner’s market value computes to exactly five years and $105,672,038 with an annual salary of $21.1 million. The site closely compares Bumgarner’s value to that of Jake Arrieta (3-year, $75 million), Dallas Keuchel (1-year, $21.2 million), Patrick Corbin (6-year, $140 million) and Yu Darvish (6-year, $126 million), essentially fitting him somewhere in between those four pitchers’ former and current deals (Keuchel is also currently a FA).

That estimate above seems to line up with what many feel Bumgarner should receive on the market this MLB offseason, and there’s certainly no doubt that several teams are interested:

However, those seven teams will have to consider the fact that Bumgarner hasn’t quite been the same pitcher away from San Francisco, a career-long bugaboo that hasn’t gone unnoticed. That home/away disparity was even more evident in 2019, when Bumgarner pitched to a 2.93 at home, compared to an ugly 5.29 mark on the road, including a .286 AVG (yikes).

Bumgarner’s less-than-ideal road splits will certainly be something that could potentially put a damper on just how high his future deal will ultimately go. But considering that his projected contract has risen by a count of roughly $40 million within the past month ($64M to upwards of $100M), it appears Bumgarner will be just fine; and now that a record-breaking deal for a starting pitcher is in the books, the lefty maybe even better than just fine… and he has Stephen Strasburg to thank.