MLB Free Agents: Top 5 available players and best fits
By Clint Manry
Top 5 MLB Free Agents: Hyun-Jin Ryu, LHP
32-years-old — 2 years, $32 million
Remaining in the running for the National League Cy Young award for much of the 2019 season, surprisingly Ryu, one of the best MLB free agents, is currently left unemployed. After being limited to just 82.1 innings in 2018, due to injuries, the South Korean lefty bounced back with the Dodgers this past season and logged 182.2 innings, finishing as the second-best pitcher in LA’s starting rotation with 4.8 WAR.
Among NL starters with at least 100 innings pitched in 2019, Ryu’s 2.32 ERA was better than all but four other pitchers, as he dominated batters with the league’s second most valuable changeup (a Pitch Value of 21.5, according to FanGraphs). Ryu’s offspeed offering held opposing hitters to a measly .194 AVG and allowed him to run his highest ground ball rate (50.4%) since his first season with the Dodgers, in 2013 (50.6%).
In a season in which the major-league home run rate sat at 1.37 per nine innings, Ryu provided an elite ability to suppress the long ball and allowed only 17 homers all season (0.84 HR/9), second to only Mike Soroka’s ridiculously low 0.72 mark, amongst all major-league starters with 100 innings pitched.
With Ryu, you get a pitcher that can consistently limit the damage. His home run prevention in 2019 was the result of his excellent batted-ball results, as he wrapped up the year allowing a solid 34.2% hard-hit rate (10th-lowest in the majors). There’s no doubt that Ryu could potentially provide an ace-like performance for interested teams.
However, an aging pitcher with durability concerns is the double whammy when it comes to the things-you-don’t-want-in-a-starting pitcher. His innings total in 2019 was the highest he’s ever managed since his tallied 192 frames in 2013, and he has only totaled 30 starts once in his six-year career (granted, 30 starts is not a very fitting starts-threshold for this current era).
FanGraphs just recently released its 2020 ZiPS projections for the LA Dodgers, including Ryu in the report since he pitched for the team this past season. According to the projections, Ryu is expected to make 24 starts this coming season, a decent mark of 140-150 innings, which would be a rather impressive accomplishment for him if he manages the high side of that projection. He has only hit the 150 mark three times in his career.
It’s a difficult prediction to make. Ryu hasn’t really shown any evidence that he can last an entire season, meaning his chances of earning a contract longer than two years is rather minuscule. Interested teams must determine if he’s worth the risk.
Best fits: Dodgers, Angels, Twins, Cardinals