Top 5 MLB Free Agents: Marcell Ozuna, OF
29-years-old — 4 years, $70 million
A 5-WAR player back in 2017 with the Marlins, Ozuna seemed to of peaked a little too early, as he hasn’t quite gotten back to that 37-home run and .300 AVG level of performance over the last couple of seasons.
Ozuna was still a good player in 2019, posting 2.6 WAR, thanks to better defense and 29 home runs with 89 RBI (those last two totals both being the second-most of his career). Despite playing just 130 games, Ozuna was still his usual self, for the most part, this past season — a below-to-average defender with some legit pop.
Although, the Cardinals are ready to get out while the getting is good, as the team has a few younger and more athletic players coming up through the system, meaning it looks as if Ozuna may need a new job. Granted, as recent as Tuesday it was reported by MLB Trade Rumors that the Cards were still trying to re-sign the left fielder… so who knows.
What we do know is that the market for outfielders this offseason hasn’t quite taken hold like some of the other positions have, especially Ozuna’s position.
Looking at 2019’s top-performing left fielders (BR WAR), only three of the top-10 players have signed with a team so far this offseason (Charlie Culberson: Braves / Jerrett Parker: Mets / Gerardo Parra: signed with NPB team), with an unsigned Ozuna pacing the list.
The metrics are looking good for Ozuna, though, as he seems to be making progress with the bat since 2018. His hard-hit rate keeps climbing, going from 45.2% two years ago to 48.1% in 2019. Ozuna’s also hitting more line drives (5.5% increase), more homers-per-fly balls (9% increase) and also pulling the ball more (7.3% increase) — all signs that he may be heading back to that 2017 level of production.
The current trajectory of his play would make you think he would be a much more sought after MLB free agents on the market, but in terms of contending teams, there just isn’t that much demand; also it doesn’t help that he’s looking for a 3-4 year deal that pays nearly $20 million per season, a rather steep price for a player that doesn’t offer many tools (though Ozuna has been a decent base runner for his career).
Steamer really thinks a lot of Ozuna, and the system has him posting an even better season in 2020:
149 G, .276 AVG, 33 HR, 101 RBI, 3.1 WAR
With the Cardinals seemingly interested in bringing Ozuna back, due to a poor pool of FA outfielders, he may be better off re-signing with St. Louis. However, if Ozuna is patient, he could perhaps wait this slow period out and potentially land a better deal.
Regardless, there should be plenty of teams interested in a player that looks to be on his way back to an All-Star level of play; the question is if suitors are willing to pay Ozuna’s asking price.
Best fits: Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Giants