MLB Free Agents: Top 5 available players and best fits

Despite such an active offseason so far, there are still several MLB free agents left on the market that can give teams a boost in 2020.

The hot stove hasn’t disappointed this offseason, as eight of the ten top-ranked MLB free agents (via FanGraphs) have been signed already and we’re still a week away from Christmas, meaning there’s still time for teams to lock up those last two players.

This year has been a pleasant surprise, once again giving baseball fans an actual hot stove this offseason, rather than a slow and miserable dead period that we had come accustomed to since at least the winter of 2016-17. The top-tier players are quickly coming off the board, which has created urgency, resulting in excitement.

Looking at this offseason’s activity in terms of position, the catcher and starting pitcher market have garnered the most demand, as 15 of the top-20 WAR producers (via Baseball-Reference) at those two positions combined have signed contracts thus far.

For teams still looking to improve upon its catching and starting rotation situation, the available MLB free agents are beginning to get rather slim, especially considering four of the top-5 starting pitchers from 2019 are taken.

Which leads to the next phase of the sport’s offseason: the trading season, which was unofficially kicked off this past Sunday when the Cleveland Indians traded starting pitcher Corey Kluber to the Texas Rangers for prospect reliever Emmanuel Clase and outfielder Delino DeShields Jr. — the first trade this winter involving such a household name.

With so many bigtime signings in the early portion of the offseason, several teams will now turn to the trade market to fill any lingering holes, as payrolls have begun to swell and the assortment of FA options have dwindled; though, there are still several MLB free agents market that could certainly move the needle.

As we enter what perhaps could be the last 5-7 days of transactional activity before the Christmas holidays, let’s examine the top-5 free-agent players currently left on the market.

Using FanGraphs’ 2020 Top 50 MLB Free Agents ranking, I have compiled a list of the five most highly ranked players currently left unsigned, including each player’s current age and projected contract.

Top 5 MLB Free Agents: Hyun-Jin Ryu, LHP

32-years-old — 2 years, $32 million

Remaining in the running for the National League Cy Young award for much of the 2019 season, surprisingly Ryu, one of the best MLB free agents, is currently left unemployed. After being limited to just 82.1 innings in 2018, due to injuries, the South Korean lefty bounced back with the Dodgers this past season and logged 182.2 innings, finishing as the second-best pitcher in LA’s starting rotation with 4.8 WAR.

Among NL starters with at least 100 innings pitched in 2019, Ryu’s 2.32 ERA was better than all but four other pitchers, as he dominated batters with the league’s second most valuable changeup (a Pitch Value of 21.5, according to FanGraphs). Ryu’s offspeed offering held opposing hitters to a measly .194 AVG and allowed him to run his highest ground ball rate (50.4%) since his first season with the Dodgers, in 2013 (50.6%).

In a season in which the major-league home run rate sat at 1.37 per nine innings, Ryu provided an elite ability to suppress the long ball and allowed only 17 homers all season (0.84 HR/9), second to only Mike Soroka’s ridiculously low 0.72 mark, amongst all major-league starters with 100 innings pitched.

With Ryu, you get a pitcher that can consistently limit the damage. His home run prevention in 2019 was the result of his excellent batted-ball results, as he wrapped up the year allowing a solid 34.2% hard-hit rate (10th-lowest in the majors). There’s no doubt that Ryu could potentially provide an ace-like performance for interested teams.

However, an aging pitcher with durability concerns is the double whammy when it comes to the things-you-don’t-want-in-a-starting pitcher. His innings total in 2019 was the highest he’s ever managed since his tallied 192 frames in 2013, and he has only totaled 30 starts once in his six-year career (granted, 30 starts is not a very fitting starts-threshold for this current era).

FanGraphs just recently released its 2020 ZiPS projections for the LA Dodgers, including Ryu in the report since he pitched for the team this past season. According to the projections, Ryu is expected to make 24 starts this coming season, a decent mark of 140-150 innings, which would be a rather impressive accomplishment for him if he manages the high side of that projection. He has only hit the 150 mark three times in his career.

It’s a difficult prediction to make. Ryu hasn’t really shown any evidence that he can last an entire season, meaning his chances of earning a contract longer than two years is rather minuscule. Interested teams must determine if he’s worth the risk.

Best fits: Dodgers, Angels, Twins, Cardinals

Top 5 MLB Free Agents: Dallas Keuchel, LHP

31-years-old — 3 years, $45 million

The holdout worked rather well for Keuchel last year, as he wound up in Atlanta in June and posted a strong 2019 season as a stabilizer in the Braves’ starting rotation. In 19 starts, the lefty didn’t exactly flash his best stuff this past season, but there’s no doubt Braves Country appreciated his four months of service.

Like always, Keuchel fed opposing batters a healthy dose of two-seam fastballs and cutters (those two offerings made up 74.1% of his pitch mix in 2019), leading to yet another 60%+ ground ball rate this past season; that makes four such seasons in his 8-year career.

However, within his four-pitch repertoire (fastball, cutter, changeup and slider), only his changeup finished the year with a positive Pitch Value (2.0), as Keuchel allowed a 36.8% hard-hit rate — an eight-percent jump compared to his 2018 campaign. In the end, his 3.75/4.72 ERA-FIP combo illustrated that the veteran lefty obviously had lost a touch (his highest ERA since 2016), though it’s rather understandable considering he missed all of Spring Training plus the first 2 months of the regular season.

Still, the Braves were in need of an innings-eater and that’s exactly what Keuchel provided, making his start every fifth day and accruing 112.2 innings (19 starts) in his shortened season with the team.

Keuchel, a former Cy Young (2015) winner, is much like Ryu in that he’s not exactly a strikeout artist. Keuchel’s has earned his living by consistently generating ground balls and weak contact, shown by his sub-20% career strikeout rate (19.1%). Teams with strong infield defense will be the one’s set up to benefit the most from Keuchel’s services, as his 58.9% career ground ball rate will certainly keep the field busy.

FanGraphs has yet to release the Braves 2020 ZiPS projections, meaning all we have on Keuchel at the moment is Steamer and Baseball-Reference projections. The two systems see a vastly different pitcher in 2020:

•  Steamer: 188 IP, 4.20 ERA, 6.87 K/9, 2.94 BB/9
• BR: 137 IP, 3.88 ERA, 7.6 K/9, 3.0 BB/9

One system sees Keuchel as a back-of-the-rotation starter, though a solid one; while the other sees him as a starter near the top of a staff, but one that will allow nearly 0.5 more runs per nine innings relative to 2019.

With this being Keuchel’s age-32 season and the fact that he showed evident signs of regression this past season, it’s reasonable to expect his 2020 numbers to fall somewhere in between the two projection systems, which would peg Keuchel as a 1.0-1.5 WAR pitcher. At $15 million per season, there are several teams that could use that kind of production in it’s starting rotation.

Best fits: Angels, Twins, Padres, Cardinals

Top 5 MLB Free Agents: Nick Castellanos, OF

27-years-old — 4 years, $56 million

Widely known as a bat-only player, Castellanos is coming off two of the best seasons of his career, posting 3.0 WAR and 2.8 WAR in 2018 and 2019, respectively. His 58 doubles last season led the majors, as well as the 104 he has hit since the beginning of the 2018 season.

With the bat, he’s a top-25 player in the majors, but with the glove, he is literally the worst among qualified players (-33.3 Def combined over his last 2 seasons), worse than guys like Josh Bell, Shin-Soo Choo and J.D. Martinez in the field.

On offense, Castellanos hit a healthy .289 while slugging 27 home runs in 151 games with the Tigers and Cubs, posting an above-average 121 wRC+.

As you can see, there’s a lot to like about Castellanos: he hits for a solid average, he doesn’t strike out a ton, he has power and he’s a doubles machine that averages 40+ doubles per season. But his issues on defense has been a bugaboo for him his entire career.

Teams are obviously completely aware of his inadequacy on defense, though in 2019 Castellanos was much better with the glove, going from a -20.7 Def in 2018 to a -12.6 mark in 2019 (-12.9 UZR to -5.2). Granted, Castellanos is still far from being a strong defender, and his defensive skills will only continue to deteriorate as he ages; but, he deserves credit for posting his best defensive season since 2016.

Looking back at Castellanos’ skills on offense, the 27-year-old right-handed batter also seems to be somewhat oblivious as to whether a righty or lefty is on the mound. For his career, Castellanos is a .268 hitter versus righties while hitting .306 against southpaws; those splits were even better in 2019, as he hit .272 and .370, respectively.

Overall, Castellanos seems to be the perfect fit for an AL team, though his success with the Cubs in 2019 may actually make that narrative somewhat weaker.

Steamer predicts more of the same for the outfielder, pegging Castellanos for 149 games and a .275 average with an identical home run total of 27 in 2020. Unfortunately, the system doesn’t think his improved defense will stick, giving him a rough-looking -16.5 Def, meaning he looks to be more of 1-2 WAR player rather than the 2-3 WAR player he was this past season.

Regardless, interested suitors will have to just accept who Castellanos is as an offense provider and find a way to, if it’s an NL team, deal with his poor defense. For AL teams it’s quite obvious… of all the available MLB free agents, pencil him in as the DH and let him rake.

Best fits: Indians, White Sox, Rockies

Top 5 MLB Free Agents: Josh Donaldson, 3B

34-years-old — 3 years, $71 million

And then there was one. Donaldson currently stands alone as the last remaining Big Four MLB free agents from this year’s class as well as the highest-ranked unsigned free agent left on FanGraphs’ Top-50 list, as he looks to get properly rewarded for his big 2019 season.

As you may already know, Donaldson was an AL MVP in 2015 with the Toronto Blue Jays, back when he was a lock for 30-35 home runs and 100 RBI.

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He’s not that 29-year-old version of himself anymore, though 2019 was only the second time he played a full season of baseball since that MVP season. This past year with the Braves, Donaldson took it upon himself to remind everyone that he’s not quite done yet.

Braves’ GM Alex Anthopoulos took a chance with his former player (from his days as Blue Jays GM) and handed a one-year, $23 million pillow contract to Donaldson. The logic was sound: if Donaldson even halfway resembles his late-20s self it’s a win and if he doesn’t, it’s still a win, as he only costs the Braves one season and money.

As we witnessed, the low-risk move by Anthopolous was a success. Donaldson became a fan favorite as he hit .259 and belted 37 home runs (his most homers since 2016) on his way to a 4.9-WAR season, second only to Ronald Acuna Jr. in the lineup.

And it wasn’t just offense, either. Donaldson played strong defense at the hot corner, tallying 15 DRS (defensive-runs-saved), which stands as his best DRS since his last season with the Athletics back in 2014.

Add it all up and at 34-years-old Donaldson is a hot commodity on the free-agent market, standing as the second most valuable position-player available this offseason, behind only Anthony Rendon (who signed with the Rangers last week).

And don’t look now, but coming as a bit of a surprise — considering concerns regarding his age — Steamer projects Donaldson to basically match his totals from this past season in 2020:

147 G, .257 AVG, 35 HR, 89 RBI, 4.7 WAR

The fact that Donaldson’s 2020 season looks so valuable is interesting, considering the current hold-up for teams — especially for the Braves — is whether or not it’s a good idea to give Donaldson a four-year deal. As we’ve seen in the past, handing out 3-4 year deals to players in their 30s usually doesn’t end well; but with Donaldson now 100% healthy, perhaps it’s wrong to bet against him.

It seems reasonable to expect his power to mostly remain, and even if Donaldson were to lose a bit of his thump in the next three or four years, is 20-25 home runs that much worse than 35? And in terms of defense at third, there are absolutely no signs currently suggesting that a dropoff is imminent.

It will be interesting to see how Donaldson’s free-agent story ends this winter. There are numerous teams that remain in need of a third baseman, and with the position so top-heavy it appears that it’s Donaldson or nothing for much of the field.

Best fits: Braves, Nationals, Rangers, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Phillies