Yankees, Mets: Ranking the best starting rotation in New York City

This offseason, the New York Yankees bolstered their rotation by adding Gerrit Cole. In Queens, the New York Mets added two arms of their own. So, who has the best rotation? Let’s take a closer look.

New York City was busy this offseason with crosstown rivals the New York Yankees and the New York Mets both bolstering their starting rotation. For the team from the Bronx, they put all of their eggs in free agent Gerrit Cole‘s basket, while the team from Queens are throwing a hail mary hoping to catch lightning in a bottle with Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha.

What’s clear is that both rotations are solid and, arguably, top 10 in the league. But who reigns in NYC? That’s what we’re here to settle.

Now, if we were to take last year’s stats into consideration, then by all measures, the current Mets rotation was better. We can determine this by using fWAR as a standard measure. In total, both teams have seven starters on their rotation and, in all, Mets starters have an 18.4 fWAR whereas the Yankees have an 18.1 fWAR.

Here’s a breakdown:

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2019 New York Mets Rotation

1. Jacob deGrom – 7.0 fWAR
2. Noah Syndergaard – 4.4 fWAR
3. Marcus Stroman – 3.9 fWAR
4. Rick Porcello – 1.8 fWAR
5. Steven Matz – 1.6 fWAR
6. Walker Locket – -0.1 fWAR
7. Michael Wacha – -0.2 fWAR

2019 New York Yankees Rotation

1. Gerrit Cole – 7.4 fWAR
2. James Paxton – 3.5 fWAR
3. Masahiro Tanaka – 3.3 fWAR
4. Domingo German – 2.0 fWAR
5. J.A. Happ – 1.3 fWAR
6. Luis Severino – 0.5 fWAR
7. Jordan Montgomery – 0.1 fWAR

Now, what this doesn’t take into consideration is that Severino and Montgomery accounted for a total of 5 appearances in 2019, whereas, for the Mets, Lockett had the fewest appearances with 9. Also, while the top five Mets pitchers account for 18.7 fWAR, which is larger than the Yankees’ 17.5 fWAR, no Yankee pitcher posted an fWAR in the negatives. Mets pitchers accounted for two in Wacha and Lockett.

Looking ahead, however, the numbers tell a different story.

What if Severino stays healthy for a full season and produces a fraction of what he did in 2018? What if Montgomery, German, and Happ share fifth starter and spot starter duties?

What if Porcello and Wacha have a bounceback season, how would each rotation rank against each other?

To determine this, we can utilize STEAMER projections, a system that uses “past performance and aging trends to develop future projections for players” easily found in FanGraphs. Using this system, here’s how each rotation breaks down:

2020 New York Mets Projections

1. Jacob deGrom – 5.4 fWAR
2. Noah Syndergaard – 3.1 fWAR
3. Marcus Stroman – 2.8 fWAR
4. Steven Matz – 1.7 fWAR
5. Rick Porcello – 1.3 fWAR
6. Michael Wacha – 0.3 fWAR
7. Walker Lockett – 0.1 fWAR

2020 New York Yankees Projections

1. Gerrit Cole – 5.8 fWAR
2. James Paxton – 3.5 fWAR
3. Luis Severino – 3.3 fWAR
4. Masahiro Tanaka – 2.3 fWAR
5. Domingo German – 2.0 fWAR
6. J.A. Happ – 1.3 fWAR
7. Jordan Montgomery – 0.1 fWAR

When using these projections, the Yankees staff (17.4 fWAR) is far superior to that of their crosstown rivals (14.7 fWAR).

It will be interesting to see how the 2020 MLB season breaks down. One thing’s for sure, given how the NBA – except perhaps the Brooklyn Nets – and the NFL have turned out for New York City, New Yorkers are in need of competitive season from both the Yankees and the Mets.