Checking in on the Chicago White Sox thus far

After another year of irrelevancy, the Chicago White Sox appear determined to shake up a weak American League Central this coming season.

Depending on which team(s) you root for, your enthusiasm regarding the latest moves by the Chicago White Sox may vary; however, regardless of which side you’re on, I think we can all agree that the ChiSox are in it to win it this offseason.

The real fun started with Jose Abreu’s $50 million extension. The White Sox quickly committed to three more years for the first baseman, even after Abreu accepted his $17.8 million qualifying offer. Next was superstar catcher Yasmani Grandal, who the White Sox signed to a four-year, $73 million deal, an impressive show of force and an early statement that the team was willing to play with the big boys this winter.

Overall, the ChiSox have been rather busy this offseason, which is nice to see coming from a team that hasn’t been relevant in quite some time.

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Notable Offseason Moves

• 1B, Jose Abreu, extended (3 years, $55MM)
• C, Yasmani Grandal, signed (4 years, $73MM)
• OF, Nomar Mazara, acquired via trade
• SP, Gio Gonzalez, signed (1 year, $5MM)
• SP, Dallas Keuchel, signed (3 years, $55MM)

After this past season’s 72-89 record, the Chicago White Sox have finished with more losses than wins for seven straight seasons now. It has been a long seven years, and frankly, it’s been even longer than that, considering the years prior to that 85-win season in 2012 the team bounced back-and-forth between winning and losing seasons. In fact, the White Sox haven’t posted a 90-win season since way back in 2006.

(I promise this article gets better.)

But the White Sox’s outlook is beginning to look a lot better. With the moves mentioned above, combined with a sloppy American League Central, the ChiSox now have an opportunity to become a contender. They might not be ahead of the Indians or Twins yet, but considering the former hasn’t decided if it wants to win ball games this coming season — or retain Francisco Lindor — the White Sox look to have as good a chance to compete as in any previous years.

Even better, if the White Sox truly are willing to open its coffers and pay to play this offseason, the team still has plenty of payroll space. Before signing Dallas Keuchel Saturday night, the White Sox ranked just 22nd in 2020 payroll. With the leftie’s roughly $18 million salary added to the mix, that puts the White Sox at a still reasonable $100 million — still behind the Reds for just the 17th largest 2020 payroll.

Hitting the century mark in millions is a rather notable achievement, considering the Chicago White Sox haven’t been in the 100-million territory since 2016 ($129.7 million), after back-to-back-to-back seasons of finishing within the bottom-four of big-league payrolls (as low as $71.8 million in 2018). I’m not so sure the White Sox are ready to approach its 2016 mark, but at least the team has filled numerous holes and still sits at a very modest figure financially.

With more money to spend, perhaps the White Sox should sign Edwin Encarnacion to DH in 2020. Consider the current ChiSox lineup (with Encarnacion included for fun):

(2020 ZiPS included)

• 3B, Yoan Moncada (3.6 WAR)
• SS, Tim Anderson (1.9 WAR)
• 1B, Jose Abreu (1.4 WAR)
• C, Yasmani Grandal (4.5 WAR)
• LF, Eloy Jimenez (2.1 WAR)
• RF, Nomar Mazara (0.8 WAR)
• CF, Luis Robert (2.3 WAR)
• 2B, Nick Madrigal (1.7 WAR)
• DH, Edwin Encarnacion (1.5 WAR)*

*Steamer projections

That’s 19.8 WAR combined for the White Sox starting lineup (remember, that’s with Encarnacion included). For perspective, the Dodgers’ ZiPS projections total 29.4 WAR for its presumed 2020 lineup and the Mets come out to 21.7 (FanGraphs hasn’t released any other AL Central team as of yet). For the ChiSox to be such a poor team in 2019, its ZiPS projections for the coming season are quite promising.

Obviously, projected WAR totals aren’t the best way to project a team’s standing amongst its opponents, but it can at least give you an idea.

How about the starting rotation?

• RHP, Lucas Gioloto (4.6 WAR)
• LHP, Dallas Keuchel (2.4 WAR)*
• LHP, Gio Gonzalez (1.1 WAR)*
• RHP, Reynaldo Lopez (1.5 WAR)
• RHP, Michael Kopech (1.9 WAR)

*Steamer projections

Right there is 11.5 WAR for the White Sox rotation. The Dodgers and Mets are projected for 14.7 and 14.2, respectively, but that’s not too fair, considering those are two teams with some of the best starting pitchers in the National League.

What about a team like the Arizona Diamondbacks? That’s certainly a rotation the White Sox should strive to compare to this coming season. With a staff led by Robbie Ray and Zac Gallen, the Diamondbacks’ rotation is projected totally 11.3 WAR in 2020, according to ZiPS. That’s a great sign for the White Sox, at least in terms of its outlook for this coming season.

Regardless, just about any resemblance of a team fighting for contention in 2020 will be a substantial improvement for the Chicago White Sox. It’s great to see a team with a long line of losing at least attempting to create some excitement; that’s a whole lot more than their friends in Cleveland can say.

*All WAR figures were compiled from FanGraphs. 

*Click here to see teams projected by ZiPS thus far.