MLB Free Agents: top 10 players and likely destinations

There are still unsigned MLB free agents and several contending teams that need to make another move. Who fits the best where?

There have already been countless articles written, highlighting just how exciting the current offseason has been, especially compared to the past few years (including one of my own). Here at Call to the Pen, I also recently wrote up a list of the top-five free agents currently left on the market, using FanGraphs 2020 Top 50 MLB Free Agents list.

Now we need to take a look at the entire free agent class as a whole and determine which contending teams should be signing who.

But first, there needs to be some guidelines, as this exercise is meant to be as realistic as possible and not just a list declaring every team should sign the best available player; it needs to make sense in terms of roster-construction, plus each team’s current financial situation needs to be taken into consideration.

We also need to define which teams are contending teams. This could be a little complicated, being that teams like the Angels, Reds, Rangers and even White Sox seem to be determined to contend in 2020. However, you could perhaps say that for literally every team except maybe a few (Marlins, Mariners, and Tigers come to mind).

So to keep this from being a novel, let’s just stick with 2019’s playoff teams as our group of contending teams. Also, obviously it’s doubtful that all ten of these teams sign more MLB free agents, so look at this list as more of if they were to make another signing:

Remaining MLB Free Agents Best Fits

Let’s look at each team, swapping back and forth between the NL and AL…

Atlanta Braves

3B, Josh Donaldson

After starting the offseason as one of the most active teams on the FA market — making several moves to reinforce its bullpen as well as re-sign a few MLB free agents– GM Alex Anthopoulos and the Braves have stood idle since late November when they signed catcher Travis d’Arnaud to a two-year, $16 million contract.

Right now the issue is the length of the contract, as Anthopoulos has no interest in giving 34-year-old Donaldson a four-year deal, but considering the team’s current depth chart, the former MVP seems like a no-brainer.

The Braves are in need of not only a competent third baseman but also a cleanup hitter, as Donaldson provided both for the team in 2019, on his one-year, $23 million pillow contract. The risk of a long term commitment to a mid-30s player is nothing to take lightly, but the Braves have no choice.

Given how much Donaldson enjoyed his time as a fan favorite in Atlanta, not to mention his healthy relationship with Anthopoulos, I think he and the Braves make a compromise.

Contract prediction: 3 years, $90 million

New York Yankees

C, Jason Castro

Arguably the best-equipped team after signing one of the best MLB free agents ever, the Bombers look set up to make a comeback to the World Series in 2020, after missing out since the 2009 season (their last title).

Despite such a loaded roster, the Yankees could still use a backup infielder and even more bullpen depth, but most of all the team needs a backup catcher.

Former Yankee lifer Austin Romin is gone after being signed by the Tigers last Friday; Martin Maldonado, perhaps the Bombers’ first choice for a backup — he and Gerrit Cole are very familiar from their Houston days — was brought back by the Astros this Friday.

Castro, 32, is coming off a 2019 season in which he was once again an above-average player on offense, posting a 100+ wRC+ for the first time in six years (103). The lefty hitter slugged 13 home runs in 79 games for the Twins and finished with 1.6 WAR.

Castro just finished up a 3-year, $24.5 million pact and is still young enough and has strong enough numbers to once again command a multi-year deal. I see him getting what Travis d’Arnaud got with the Braves earlier this offseason.

Contract Prediction: 2 years, $14 million

Washington Nationals 

RHP, Daniel Hudson

Like a few teams this offseason, the Nationals desperately need a third baseman. However, I already have the Braves landing Donaldson, which leaves the third-base market extremely thin, though there are a few options left if Washington is interested in bringing in a veteran guy to perhaps provide guidance for top prospect infielder Carter Kieboom.

I see them going a different route, though, as the Nationals also need more relief pitching, being that its bullpen was one of the worst units in the majors in 2019 (21st in bullpen WAR). The defending champs surely don’t want the same relief issues as last season, a year in which its bullpen posted an unsightly 5.68 ERA — a mark only better than the Orioles.

So why let one of the team’s better relievers go? The Nationals traded for Hudson at the deadline in 2019 and he went on to post a 1.44 ERA in 24 relief appearances down the stretch for the World Series champions, maintaining a stingy walk rate (1.4 BB/9). If the team can’t improve its third base situation from the free-agent market, reinforcing the bullpen seems like the Nats’ best option.

Contract Prediction: 2 years, $8 million

Tampa Bay Rays 

INF, Starlin Castro

The Rays always run a tight ship in terms of not offering up any contracts even remotely large in size, but the team may need to open its coffers a bit to shore up a potential costly weakness.

Tampa Bay needs a right-handed hitter but most of all the team needs a third baseman as they don’t have much at the position on the depth chart other than Joey Wendle who hit just .231 in 75 games this past season.

Castro offers a consistently high average (.270 AVG or better in each of the last 3 seasons) and 15-20 home runs from the right side, while also playing above-average defense at three different infield positions (3B/SS/2B). After spending the last two seasons in Miami, the Rays could keep the 29-year-old in Florida on a multi-year deal.

Contract Prediction: 3 years, $24 million

St. Louis Cardinals 

OF, Marcell Ozuna

The Cardinals have been quiet this offseason with the re-signing of Adam Wainwright standing as the team’s most notable move thus far. The Redbirds still need an impact bat and could also use more starting pitching if we’re being thorough.

It seemed probable that Ozuna would be taken off the market rather quickly after declining his qualifying offer from the Cardinals, but that hasn’t been the case. St. Louis should take advantage of the fact that the 29-year-old is still available and, like Wainwright, re-sign the man.

With 30-HR power and able to still provide respectable defense in left field, Ozuna could be the final piece needed to complete the Cardinals 2020 lineup. The only problem is that he’s most likely still looking for a rather large payday; however, perhaps his price has fallen somewhat, being that there hasn’t been any takers.

Contract Prediction: 3 years, $60 million 

Minnesota Twins

RHP, Homer Bailey

With the White Sox signing Dallas Keuchel Saturday night, the Twins may have missed out on the perfect addition to its 2020 starting rotation, as the pool of available MLB free agents is beginning to look scarce.

The Twins have been linked to Donaldson recently and could also use a backup catcher, but the team really needs to sign another starting pitcher before it’s too late. Bailey had a bit of a bounce-back season in 2019, accruing his highest WAR total (2.9) since 2013 off the backs of 163.1 innings with the Royals and A’s (also his highest total since 2013).

Bailey shouldn’t cost too much and isn’t expected to command a long term commitment after pitching on a one-year deal this past season. The Twins need to take advantage of his resurgence and shore up the starting staff. Bailey’s fastball and split-finger were plus pitches in 2019, and more improvement could be on the way.

Contract Prediction: 1 year, $5 million 

Milwaukee Brewers

RHP, Will Harris

Bargain hunting has been the name of the game for the Brew Crew thus far, as the team recently signed Justin Smoak a few days ago. With Eric Thames now a free agent, Smoak takes care of the Brewers’ need at first base, but the team could still use an arm in the bullpen (like all teams).

After Josh Hader, there isn’t much to get excited about as it pertains to Milwaukee’s relief core, and there are still concerns as to how effective Corey Knebel will be in 2020 as he makes his return from Tommy John surgery.

Harris has been a beast in the Astros bullpen in the last three seasons, tallying 175 relief appearances in that span as well as 3 WAR. The 35-year-old struck out 9.10 batters per nine this past season and used his filthy cutter to generate a 54.6% ground ball rate and just a measly .195 batting average against. Harris could be a weapon for the Brewers, and his durability should give the team more assurance in the backend of the team’s bullpen.

Contract Prediction: 2 years, $14 million

Houston Astros 

OF, Kole Calhoun

As mentioned in the previous slide, Houston brought back catcher Martin Maldonado on Friday, filling the team’s need behind the plate. The Astros could also use another starting pitcher as well as a reliever, though the latter of those two seem strong.

Earlier this month the ‘Stros traded outfielder Jake Marisnick to the NY Mets in exchange for a couple of prospects. Perhaps Houston would be interested in refilling the hole left by Marisnick.

Calhoun, 32, turned in a nice bounce-back season in 2019, slugging 33 home runs (a career-high) and tallying 2.5 WAR with the Angels. He’s also not bad on defense, finishing with a 5.1 UZR out in right field. With Michael Brantley, George Springer, Josh Reddick and even youngster Kyle Tucker all returning in 2020, signing Calhoun isn’t exactly a critical move; though, the Astros may feel like deepening its outfield, considering Reddick and Tucker didn’t exactly tear it up out there in 2019 (granted, the latter of those two only played in 22 games).

Contract Prediction: 2 years, $18 million 

Los Angeles Dodgers 

LHP, Hyun-Jin Ryu

The Dodgers have the offense to run away with the National League West this coming season, as guys like Justin Turner, Max Muncy, Joc Pederson, and Cody Bellinger are all returning, plus whichever new player-we’ve-never-heard-of that breaks out.

The team also made a solid move adding reliever Blake Treinen, low-risk $10 million signing that could wind up as a bargain if he bounces back in 2020. The bullpen could probably stand one more move, as some depth would be nice. Closer Kenley Jansen clearly lost a step in 2019 and newcomer Joe Kelly didn’t excite in his first year with the team.

However, re-signing Ryu needs to be the Dodgers first priority, and to me another one of those no-brainers. Ryu was Cy Young material for much of the season in 2019, posting the highest WAR of his career (4.8) as well as his lowest walk rate (1.18 BB/9).

It appears what’s holding this signing up is that the Dodgers aren’t too keen on committing to 4-5 years with Ryu, as they’re plenty aware of his durability issues. I think they offer him a higher AAV to get a deal done. Ryu was much too instrumental to the team’s success this past season.

Contract Prediction: 3 years, $60 million