The #Dodgers are the team to watch. They are being very aggressive in pursuit of Francisco Lindor and Mike Clevinger of Cleveland and remain in contact with the #Redsox on Mookie Betts. SS Corey Seager is their top trade chip veteran players.
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) December 22, 2019
Los Angeles Dodgers
Reported to be the most aggressive team in on Mike Clevinger, the Dodgers could absolutely use another ace to pair with Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw. This move would be the Dodgers looking towards October after losing back to back World Series and then getting bounced dramatically by the eventual World Champs.
The Dodgers have one of the deepest farm systems in all of baseball, featuring recently graduated players like Dustin May and Gavin Lux, breakout catcher Will Smith, and other guys like Tony Gonsolin, Keibert Ruiz. They also have current major league assets like Corey Seager and Alex Verdugo that could also fit. Teams rightly covet superstar prospects with maximum control making league minimum but these are the prospects required to swing a deal for an ace like Clevinger.
To make a deal, we need to get near that $90M in value going back to the Cleveland Indians. FanGraphs’ Craig Edwards did extensive research on prospect valuation and found expected values based on prospects future value ranking (TL;DR, the table at the bottom summarizes the data). So here are a few iterations of what a Dodgers-Indians deal could look like.
Dodgers Get
- Mike Clevinger, RHP ($88M future value)
Indians Get
- Gavin Lux, INF (60 FV, $55M expected value)
- Josiah Gray, RHP (50 FV, $21M expected value)
- Tony Gonsolin, RHP (45+ FV, $6M expected value)
- Kody Hoese, 3B (45 FV, $6M expected value)
OR
Indians Get
- Dustin May, RHP (60FV, $64M expected value)
- Jeter Downs, 2B (50 FV, $28M expected value)
Deal 1 gets us spot-on in value $88M in value being exchanged between the two teams. Barring some sort of monster deal that included Francisco Lindor, Indians fans should expect one of Dustin May or Gavin Lux. Lux is the centerpiece here as an MLB ready infielder, Gray and Gonsolin are two pitchers that Indians player development could turn into above-average members of a cheap rotation. Hoese is a former first-round draft pick and is a 22-year-old 3B in A-ball.
Deal 2 is so close a team’s internal evaluations could have this balancing one way or another. The orange maned May brings an explosive high velo, a high spin arsenal that will mow down MLB hitters for years to come and would fit nicely with Cleveland’s desire to cut payroll as may well make the minimum the next 6 years. Jeter Downs made it to AA and had success this past year as a 21-year-old. If the Cleveland Indians trade Lindor, his MLB arrival in 2021 would lineup with a new Indians window of contention with league minimum pieces.
The lesser pieces of a deal could flip flop but this is the type of framework these teams would be looking at. If it makes Dodgers fans feel uncomfortable with how much they would be giving up, it’s probably a fair deal.