Cleveland Indians: Potential Destinations for Mike Clevinger

The Cleveland Indians seem intent on being profitable instead of competitive.  Every player in Cleveland is “For Sale” and Mike Clevinger is starting to draw significant interest.

For the last few seasons, the Cleveland Indians have trotted out an elite rotation featuring Aces like Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger, and the newly elite Shane Bieber.  Two pitchers from that group have been traded out-of-town due to their dwindling years of control and 8 figure salaries.  It would seem the next man to pack his bags is Mike Clevinger.

Clevinger might be the most underrated pitcher in all of baseball, pitching in the shadows of the other aces in the rotation.  Clevinger has been nothing short of electric the past two seasons pitching to 4.2 and 4.5 fWAR.  More impressive is that Clevinger’s 2019 was his best season ever despite only 126 innings due to a hamstring injury.  Extrapolate that production over a full season and Clevinger is a bonafide ace.  Taking a look at his Statcast profile and you see a guy who brings an electric fastball, multiple breaking balls, and top scale contact management skills.  In fact, since 2017 Clevinger has been a top 20 pitcher by WAR.  For visual learners, you can see Clevinger’s entire arsenal below.

Clevinger is an ace with 3 years of control who would step to the front of just about any rotation.  His projected arbitration salary this year will likely fall around $4.5M so he is affordable for anyone.

From a pure future value perspective, Mike Clevinger could be expected to produce $108M (assuming he retains his 4.5 fWAR form and $8M/Win valuation).  Let’s assume Clevinger’s salaries over the next three years will total in the $20M, which brings his total value to just under $90M.   The Cleveland Indians will be right to ask for a king’s ransom and more in any trade, so who might be ready to swing a deal?

San Diego Padres

The Padres have been in on every top of the rotation pitcher for the last twelve months.  Their interest has spanned from Noah Syndergaard to Stephen Strasburg.  If there’s an ace on the market the Padres have been interested and Mike Clevinger is no exception.

The Padres are another team with an incredibly deep system and young MLB assets.  AJ Preller is now on the hot seat to deliver wins instead of a top farm system so he has the incentive to pull from his war chest.  The Padres could absolutely outbid the dodgers if they wanted to.  So let’s see what the Cleveland Indians could get back from the Friars.

Padres Get

• Mike Clevinger, RHP ($88M future value)

Indians Get

• MacKenzie Gore, LHP (60 FV, $64M expected value)
• CJ Abrams, CF (50 FV, $28M expected value)

OR

Indians Get

• Luis Patiño, RHP (55 FV, $34M expected value)
• Hudson Potts, 3B (50 FV, $28M expected value)
• Adrian Morejon, LHP (45+ FV, $6M expected value)
• Austin Allen, C (45 FV, $6M expected value)

The Indians and Padres already matched up on a deal at the deadline sending OF Franmil Reyes and LHP Logan Allen so there is familiarity with the system.  The deal of Gore/Abrams is very similar to the Dodgers offer of May/Downs and would ultimately come down to the Indians evaluation of those guys.

If Cleveland is looking to spread out risk, offer number 2 gives them the upside of Patiño and Potts and MLB ready talent of Morejon and Allen but not necessarily one slam dunk stud.  The value math doesn’t add up perfectly in this deal but players who are already at the MLB level may be worth a little more since they are ready to contribute on day 1.  This talent might be more appealing to the Cleveland Indians because they won’t have to sign someone more expensive.

Mystery Team

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Any time a team’s baseball staff or Scott Boras needs to drive up a price, the Mystery team will always be lurking in the shadows.  Mike Clevinger would upgrade any rotation in baseball.  Our mystery team would have to be in contention but also have the prospect capital to get a deal done.  Some mystery teams could include:

Houston Astros

Fresh off the loss of Gerrit Cole, the Astros could stand to upgrade their pitching.  Any deal here starts with Forrest Whitley (60 FV) who had a down year but still has Ace potential and would have other complements.  If a deal were to come together the Cleveland Indians would have to be very high on some of the Astros bats in the low minors otherwise it would be a very pitching heavy return.

Atlanta Braves

Dallas Kuechel is out, Cole Hamels is in but the Braves could be interested in upgrading their rotation knowing they have to duke it out against the rotations of the Phillies, Nats, and Mets.  Austin Riley (55 FV) or Christian Pache (60 FV) would be the centerpiece of a deal here and then the Braves could look to consolidate some of their upper minors pitching depth.  Some combination of Ian Anderson, Bryse Wilson, and Kyle Wright could entice the Indians to move.  Clevinger is originally from Jacksonville which would be close proximity to Atlanta as well.

There is an Ace on the trade market that could help you make the playoffs and win the World Series.  We just watched the Nats ride starting pitching to a championship.  It’s a copycat league so look for whoever acquires Mike Clevinger to try to emulate the same strategy next season.