Phillies: 2020’s playoff-bound ifs (a long version)
Surprises, comebacks, breakout campaigns and ifs are ahead for this gang of Phillies, even though general manager Matt Klentak is continuing his offseason efforts to improve the field product and capture the National League East crown.
Winning goals:
A year ago, some Philadelphia Phillies fans decided “win now” was a guarantee of a divisional title, but this desire was a goal, not their wishful thinking. As for ’20, a rotation upgrade and an offensive pickup are in the fold, and the likely signing of a closer-type fireman is at hand. They want –not will–want to win now!
IN OTHER WORDS: “Underdog, that’s something that we’ve been accustomed to, playing in Philadelphia. We’re always the underdog.” – Jimmy “J-Roll” Rollins
Again, a review of the previous 162 reveals the surprises and disappointments no one saw coming in April. And 2020 will provide another version of this annual ritual. However, baseball men see it every summer: the star with a prolonged slump and the eye-opening rookie from Double-A.
While the faithful express concern about the five-man staff, they discount the differential between contributions and expectations, real or perceived. Management has an ace, a five-slot hurler and three pitchers in between. So, a solid bottom-rung arm could eat six frames per outing along with some dominate performances.
The relief corps has middle relievers, setup men and critical-inning firemen. Again, many locals want this pen situation resolved yesterday and expect Klentak to add a top gun regardless of availability. But every GM has that toughest job in baseball, and potential employees have agents to negotiate for their market value.
With the new three-batter rule for relievers and openers, a left-right balanced lineup benefits the offense. Ergo, another left-side hitter with power had been high on Klentak’s wish list, and he signed him to a one-season contract to give his future third sacker a full campaign at Double-A and Triple-A combined. Message: Earn it!
Between wishful thinking and track record is reality. Therefore, the new two-slot starter could increase his performances to the level he had shown in 2018’s second half. Or he could match last year’s numbers, but he also could have a down 162. According to Charlie Manuel, though, baseball is 40 percent luck!
By 2019’s end, the fan base had a handful of new questions besides the injury bug’s affect on the 25-man roster. Will the stud at the rotation’s head have difficulty in the cold climes of April and October? Will the homegrown slugger be the first-half star or the second-half dud? And who will be going and coming?
Top guns and potent bats:
For the Phillies, the order of importance is 2020’s success, not 2019’s results. Basically, one ace with ineffective periods is more critical than one of two sluggers with a poor finish to the previous summer. But can a new left-side bat with pop, a bullpen flamethrower and a leadoff man bounce back from injuries? Yes!
On Aaron Nola‘s right arm, 2020’s chances will rest because of his lack of success with a 5.68 ERA through April and a 6.51 ERA in September. But he also went 0-3 in the final month. Translation: The Fightins need a good start and solid finish for an NLDS berth without the Wild Card Game.
Although some locals want to trade Rhys Hoskins, most regulars don’t basically duplicate stats every season without a Hall of Fame ticket. And expecting said production or more is wishful thinking with a side of disappointment. But if your future depended on results and income, you’d fix the problem, no?
Didi Gregorius inked a one-year pact to play for a manager who knows his ability to rebuild his market value with a good 162. Rule of thumb: Baseball men realize stars competing for a multi-campaign deal bring their best. In ’19, though, he hit .290 (June), .256 (July), .222 (August), .190 (September) but .273 in October.
The fourth if is Seranthony Dominguez who has thrown all his pitches from the mound without pain but will probably be on a slower pace in March than other relievers as a precaution. And if he receives influential coaching, he’ll split the difficult innings with two other endgame firemen when Klentak adds that third piece.
Lastly, a healthy Andrew McCutchen has the right ingredients to ignite this offense, and baseball men didn’t have misgivings with the left fielder batting first. But after he began scoring threats, fans couldn’t imagine anyone else in the one hole. So, he needs to stay off the IL (injured list) for extended periods.
Ifs and surprises:
While Nola will set the tone for the Phillies staff, most eyes will be on Zack Wheeler. And he could provide a welcomed jolt to the rotation and relieve some pressure on Nola. Basically, he’s been dependable, healthy, and successful for the last two summers with flashes of brilliance. But will he elevate his game?
Slotting third, Zach Eflin is due for a breakout season, and ’19 was decent except for the pitching coach’s high-fastball approach to this sinker baller. But the new instructor isn’t an analytics-driven newcomer like last year. No, Bryan Price has a solid resume and has received high praise from his peers: Just what Eflin needs.
Jake Arrieta has been here for two campaigns, and there are three of him: healthy, pitching injured semi-effectively, and working his way to a season-ending IL stint. But if he can be a serviceable fourth arm on the five-man staff, he’ll pitch his way to a new commitment elsewhere.
Adam Haseley joined the Phils only due to injuries. But being 1-2 years early didn’t stop him from batting .266 and opening the right eyes with ’20 in mind. Other than Scott Kingery‘s position, though, the first half will be a battle between Haseley here and Alec Bohm at Triple-A for center field or third base respectively.
If Klentak acquires a critical-situation fireman –the most important need– Vince Velasquez will probably be the five-slot starter. And he doesn’t have to be a stud to contribute every fifth day. No, he just needs to keep the Fightins in the game with a chance to win: A 4.20 ERA and 150 frames aren’t unrealistic expectations.
To date, the red pinstripes are the top landing spot for *Dellin Betances. And it could be a one-summer contract for $7-10 million. So, the if here is health and the strong potential of becoming the team’s top reliever. Plus the comfort of having Joe Girardi in the dugout is a huge advantage. *Signed by the Mets.
Up the middle:
With Segura currently practicing at second base, Kingery will probably be the Phillies third baseman until Bohm is ready. And Kingery could then return to center field, where he is a solid defender. So, Haseley must make Klentak’s decision difficult. As for Kingery, he will probably have a breakout campaign.
Although contract-extension talk has been quiet, the Phils and J.T. Realmuto will probably finalize it in January. Importantly, his new pact won’t begin until 2021 and won’t affect 2020’s AAV (average annual value). Plus the timing isn’t a concern because November and December are for roster construction: This is January’s business.
Offensively, Girardi has Harper (3) and Gregorius (5) to balance Hoskins (4) and Realmuto (2 or 6). Plus opposing skippers will have the three-batter rule, but the risk will be to face two and pitch around the opposite-side hitter. So, there will be opportunities aplenty for a backfired strategy during those last three frames.
Barring a trade, the rotation is Nola, Wheeler, Eflin, Arrieta and Velasquez or the spring-training winner for the five slot. Translation: Four aces were a once-in-a-lifetime advantage. No, the 1980 and 2008 champions didn’t have that or the franchise record of 102 victories.
So far, Klentak has picked up Wheeler to slot behind Nola and Gregorius to balance the left-right alignment powerwise. And the next order of business is Betances to secure hard-earned triumphs for Girardi. Well, it might not be 2011’s Goliath, but it will be more fun than last year except for the doubting Thomases.
While all Klentak’s ifs won’t pan out, enough have to for the execs to pull the trigger and exceed the competitive-balance threshold after the All-Star break. So, why would they pay a $3 million penalty for one season, and what one word describes that urgency to win most? Impatient!
The Numerical Bible:
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This Phillies review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
Exception:
The preferred stat to measure offensive strength is wRC+ (weighted runs created plus), which adjusts for park and league. Using 100 as average, each number above or below is the percentage difference: For instance, 125 is 25 percent above average.
Phillies offensive ratings:
- Harper: 125 (2019), 134 (2018) and 155 (2017).
- Hoskins: 113 (2019), 128 (2018) and 158 (2017).
- McCutchen: 120 (2019), 121 (2018) and 122 (2017).
- Realmuto: 108 (2019), 126 (2018) and 107 (2017).
- Kingery: 101 (2019) and 96 (2018).
- Segura: 92 (2019), 110 (2018) and 111 (2017).
- Haseley: 88 (2019).
Comparison offensive ratings:
- Trout: 180 (2019), 190 (2018) and 180 (2017).
- Freeman: 138 (2019), 137 (2018) and 150 (2017).
- Machado: 108 (2019), 140 (2018) and 102 (2017).
Phillies plate discipline for 2019:
- McCutchen: 21.0 K% and 16.4 BB% with a .378 OBP.
- Harper: 29.2 K% and 13.4 BB% with a .356 OBP.
- Hoskins: 24.5 K% and 16.5 BB% with a .364 OBP.
- Realmuto: 22.8 K% and 6.9 BB% with a .329 OBP.
- Kingery: 26.4 K% and 3.8 BB% with a .349 OBP.
According to Fangraphs, low walk rates are only acceptable for players with exceptional power numbers. Here are plate-discipline comparisons.
| Rating | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|
| Excellent | 10.0% | 15.0% |
| Great | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Above Average | 16.0% | 10.0% |
| Average | 20.0% | 8.0% |
| Below Average | 22.0% | 7.0% |
| Poor | 25.0% | 5.5% |
| Awful | 27.5% | 4.0% |
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