Phillies: 2020’s playoff-bound ifs (a long version)

PHILADELPHIA, PA - AUGUST 30: Aaron Nola #27 of the Philadelphia Phillies reacts after hitting a double in the bottom of the third inning against the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park on August 30, 2019 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA - AUGUST 30: Aaron Nola #27 of the Philadelphia Phillies reacts after hitting a double in the bottom of the third inning against the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park on August 30, 2019 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) /
facebooktwitterreddit
Prev
5 of 5
Next
Phillies
Eflin will probably be the breakout starter for the 2020 Phillies. Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. /

The Numerical Bible:

More from Call to the Pen

This Phillies review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.

Exception:

The preferred stat to measure offensive strength is wRC+ (weighted runs created plus), which adjusts for park and league. Using 100 as average, each number above or below is the percentage difference: For instance, 125 is 25 percent above average.

Phillies offensive ratings:     

  • Harper: 125 (2019), 134 (2018) and 155 (2017).
  • Hoskins: 113 (2019), 128 (2018) and 158 (2017).
  • McCutchen: 120 (2019), 121 (2018) and 122 (2017).
  • Realmuto: 108 (2019), 126 (2018) and 107 (2017).
  • Kingery: 101 (2019) and 96 (2018).
  • Segura: 92 (2019), 110 (2018) and 111 (2017).
  • Haseley: 88 (2019).     

Comparison offensive ratings:      

  • Trout: 180 (2019), 190 (2018) and 180 (2017).
  • Freeman: 138 (2019), 137 (2018) and 150 (2017).
  • Machado: 108 (2019), 140 (2018) and 102 (2017).

Phillies plate discipline for 2019:   

  • McCutchen: 21.0 K% and 16.4 BB% with a .378 OBP.
  • Harper: 29.2 K% and 13.4 BB% with a .356 OBP.
  • Hoskins: 24.5 K% and 16.5 BB% with a .364 OBP.
  • Realmuto: 22.8 K% and 6.9 BB% with a .329 OBP.
  • Kingery: 26.4 K% and 3.8 BB% with a .349 OBP.

According to Fangraphs, low walk rates are only acceptable for players with exceptional power numbers. Here are plate-discipline comparisons.

Rating K% BB%
Excellent 10.0% 15.0%
Great 12.5% 12.5%
Above Average 16.0% 10.0%
Average 20.0% 8.0%
Below Average 22.0% 7.0%
Poor 25.0% 5.5%
Awful 27.5% 4.0%

Next. Phillies eyeing Luxury Tax loophole for 2020. dark

If you have any questions or opinions regarding the Philadelphia Phillies, please open the comments section.