2020 MLB Season: Checking in on future Win Totals
Call To The Pen is checking in with ‘The Action Network’ to find value on Win Total Over/Unders for the 2020 MLB season.
After a few years of a dull Hot Stove Season, this off-season has been a crazy one with record deals, stars staying put and changing teams, and trades. There is still plenty of action to be had with quality free agents and teams scanning the trade market. Looking ahead, spring training is coming and then the 2020 MLB season will be back in full swing.
Our partner, The Action Network, provides us with the latest over/under totals to bet on. These numbers will continue to shift as the off-season progresses but there can be value in betting these lines early before more signings or trades. Here are the best value lines available before the start of the new year.
Washington Nationals O/U 86.5 – OVER
The NL East is going to be a blood bath this year with 4 teams going for it and the Marlins. The Nats pulled themselves out of an early hole to win 93 games on their way to a World Series Title. The initial line was at 89.5 but has gone down to 86.5 after losing Anthony Rendon to the Angels. Carter Kieboom will soften the loss of Rendon and the rotation is still anchored by Scherzer, Strasburg, and Corbin. How many leads the bullpen blows will determine where their final win total lies, but the Nationals will be in playoff contention throughout the year. Juan Soto, Victor Robles, Trea Turner make up a solid Nationals position player core that will push the Nats to another postseason appearance.
Arizona Diamondbacks O/U 80.5 – OVER
Mike Hazen has done an incredible job of retooling this team on the fly. Despite dealing Zack Greinke at the deadline, the Dbacks still won 85 games and were in it till the last weekend. The Dodgers remain the only sure thing in NL West. The Padres should be better, the Giants will probably be worse, who knows what’s going on in Colorado. They signed Madison Bumgarner to a 5-year deal to complement an already solid team. The Dbacks still have more talent from the farm on the way so they should only get better as the 2020 MLB season goes on.
Pittsburgh Pirates O/U 73.5 – UNDER
Neal Huntington is out, Ben Cherington is in, and the Pirates are still cheap. The Pirates only won 69 games last year while going for it. This year the Reds are indicating they want to win now in addition to the Cubs, Cardinals, and Brewers so wins will be at a premium for a Pirates team prime to take a step back. Starling Marte is likely to be traded and anyone else of value will be in play by the deadline, further weakening the team. Cherington has built Red Sox teams through the draft so He’ll want the draft/international bonus pool to be as high as possible.
2020 MLB Season: Checking in on future Win Totals
Boston Red Sox O/U 92.5 – UNDER
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The Red Sox were one of the biggest disappointments in the 2019 season faltering to 84 wins after winning the World Series. Chaim Bloom, formerly of the Rays, is now at the helm of Baseball Operations in Boston and will be tasked with rebuilding a winner while also navigating large contracts given out by the Dombrowski regime. There remains elite talent on the roster but Mookie Betts is expensive and down to 1 year of control, Chris Sale, Xander Boegarts, David Price, and JD Martinez represent other large expenditures Bloom will have to navigate through. The farm system has also been depleted so there’s little in the way of reinforcements coming. They will also face stiff competition from the Rays, Yankees, and potentially the Blue Jays. That’s before you consider what a Mookie Betts trade would do for this team’s outlook.
Milwaukee Brewers O/U 82.5 – OVER
The Brewers lost a heart breaker in the wild card game after a botched ball in RF by Trent Grisham (who is now in San Diego). Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas are gone via free agency but David Stearns has proven he can find talent and Craig Counsell can turn that talent into wins. The Brewers will get the return of the best player in baseball not named Mike Trout (Christian Yelich), a full season of Keston Hiura, and have made a number of value signings like Avisail Garcia, Justin Smoak, and Brett Anderson. The division will be tough but the Brewers are a much stronger team than this line gives them credit for.
Cleveland Indians O/U 91.5 – UNDER
Francisco Lindor and Mike Clevinger are on the block, Corey Kluber has already been shipped out, the Indians are looking like they’ll take a step back despite winning 93 games in 2019. The AL Central won’t be the supposed cakewalk the Indians thought it would be. The Twins are strong, the White Sox think their competitive window is opening, and the Tigers have made some veteran signings and will start seeing some of their talent coming to the MLB level. Mix that with all the strong teams in the AL West and East and the Indians have a rough road ahead.
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There’s still plenty of moves to be made and there will be other value plays as the lines continue to move. We will circle back as the off-season nears completion to see if there are any other values plays. Until then, those missing the itch of gambling baseball should checkout the Venezuelan or Mexican baseball leagues.