MLB: The game’s most valuable first basemen
Which MLB first basemen actually generate the greatest value to their teams via their on-field performance
In MLB, we’re pretty much obsessed with the concept of value. We apply a plethora of often exotic statistical approaches to measure it: batting average, slugging, home runs, WAR, OPS+, Defensive Runs Saved, Weighted Runs Created…the list goes on.
The one factor we generally overlook in all these assessments is the most meaningfully value-oriented of all of them: salary. What, precisely, was the player paid – relative to all other players tasked with doing what he was doing – and how much of that pay did he “earn?”
The rating system that follows corrects that oversight. Based on 2019 performance, it measures which players were the most “valuable” as judged by their on-field production relative to their salary. And let it be noted here that we are limiting our focus to on-field value only. Some MLB players, megastars, are paid based largely on factors unrelated to on-field performance, their drawing power at the gate, their celebrity, their endorsement/promotional potential being among them. Those factors, while acknowledged as real, are not part of this discussion.
Since different positions require different skills, the standard for determining production will vary depending on position…although for position players there will always be an offensive component.
Today we look at first base, a predominantly offensive position. Our formula for assessing performance at this position has four criteria. Fifty percent of a first baseman’s value will be based on slugging average, with an additional 30 percent pegged to on base average.
The remaining 20 percent focuses on defensive contributions, 10 percent each assigned to innings played and to assists. The latter, indicative of a fielder’s range, is the most variable of a first baseman’s talent indicators.
Since this system is anchored to averages, it’s important to establish what the positional averages are. In 2019, 35 major leaguers played at least 500 innings at the position, the minimum for inclusion. They averaged $7.86 million in salary, although in the case of first baseman that figure has all the flaws of a generalization. In fact, only two were paid within a few million dollar range of that average.
Instead, a dozen earned more than $10 million, among whom seven earned more than $20 million. They were led by Albert Pujols at $28 million.
At the other end of the salary spectrum, 16 earned less than $1 million, and their ranks included several players you’ve heard of: Pete Alonso, Matt Olson, Rhys Hoskins and Ji-Man Choi.
This division between the positional haves and have-not shows up starkly in our top 10. Half earned more than $12 million in 2019, the other half earned less than $1 million.
Here are the group averages for the other elements of the formula: .460 slugging average, .340 on base average, 921.26 innings played, 65 assists.
This makes first base the most paycheck-segregated position in MLB.
10. Christian Walker, Arizona Diamondbacks, $7.605 million value; $560,000 contract
The Diamondbacks picked up Christian Walker from Cincinnati on a waiver claim prior to the 2017 season and have been nursing him along ever since. In 2019, at Walker’s age 28 season, their investment began to pay off.
Walker, who inherited the position with the trade of Paul Goldschmidt, batted .259 with 29 home runs and 73 RBIs in 152 games. His .476 slugging average ranked 12th among qualifying MLB first basemen, valuing out at a bit more than $4 million. His .348 on base average stood 11th, adding $2.4 million in value. While both are above average for the group, Walker must have been doing something noteworthy with his glove to generate top 10 value.
He was. Playing 1,179 innings, Walker ranked 10th, increasing his overall value by slightly more than $1 million. What really elevated his positional standing to top 10 status, however, were his 139 assists, the majors’ leading total at the position. Walker was one of only two players to generate more than $100,000 in value based on his assist total alone.
Since Walker doesn’t even reach arbitration eligibility until 2022 – when he’ll be 31 – he figures to continue to generate value in excess of his salary for the short-term future.
9. Rhys Hoskins, Philadelphia Phillies, $7.7 million value; $575,000 salary
The Phillies may be a bit underwhelmed by Hoskins’ MLB production thus far. Following a promising 2017 when he launched 18 home runs in just 212 plate appearances, he had developed, if that’s not too strong a word, into a .240 hitter with acknowledged 30-home run power but also with numerous holes in his swing.
Given that he’s just completed his age 26 season and will not be arbitration-eligible until 2021, the Phillies can afford to wait. Beyond that, the data demonstrates that if Hoskins has not blossomed into superstar status he certainly is valuable.
His .454 slugging average, very much mid-range for the position, shows the growth Hoskins still needs to make. It translates to a value of slightly below $3.9 million. His base-reaching skills are another and more positive story. Hoskins drew a league-leading 116 walks in 2019, spiking a .364 on base average that valued out to more than $2.5 million.
Considering he made $575,000, barely more than the league minimum, that’s a nice return on investment.
He also worked at his job. Hoskins delivered nearly 1,400 innings on the field, tops at the position and worth nearly $1.2 million. His total of 122 assists, in part a byproduct of all that time on the field, ranked third and amounted to another $104,000.
8. Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals, $7.73 million value; $14.5 million salary
If Walker and Hoskins represent the positional up-and-comers, Goldschmidt’s resume is distinctly reflective of the high-paid upper-crust. MLB teams that spend heavily on a first baseman understand they will never actually recover full on-field value for their investment; they’re looking for a mid-order team leader who might also in time become the franchise’s marketing face.
With one year under his belt and Yadier Molina behind the plate in St. Louis, Goldschmidt has a ways to go to get to that status. His 2019 wasn’t a great year by his own standards, but since St. Louis won the NL Central it was acceptable. His .476 slugging average may have been a career low, but it was still better than the positional average, and it valued out to slightly more than $4 million.
Goldschmidt’s .346 on base average, another career low, was also mid-range for the position, ranking 13th among the 35. It translated to $2.4 million in production.
He did show up, always a positive trait. Goldschmidt logged 1,370 innings, more than any of the first base candidates except Hoskins, and that commitment was worth $1.169 million. It also helped him produce 111 assists, sixth best total, generating a final $95,000 in value to the Cardinals.
The $7.73 million bottom line didn’t exactly justify his $14.5 million salary…but Cardinals management should never have expected to get $14.5 million in on-field value when they signed Goldschmidt. That kind of player simply doesn’t exist.
7. Matt Olson, Oakland Athletics, $8.124 million value; $575,000 salary
Matt Olson is a prototype Oakland A. That is, he generates substantial performance for the money he’s paid. Olson’s corner infield doppelganger, Matt Chapman, is of a similar mold.
That will change in a few years as market forces drive up Olson’s contractual leverage, and when it does it will be interesting to see the extent to which, if at all, the A’s front office tries to hold on to him.
Offensively, Olson is front-rank. His 5.1 2019 WAR was actually first among first basemen, and his .545 slugging average ranks fourth. That justifies $4.656 million, which is already a nifty return on a player drawing close to the league minimum.
Olson’s .351 on base average wasn’t quite as lofty, but it still ranked 10th at his position, valuing at more than $2.4 million.
As a fielder, he’s perfectly adequate, if not elite. He played 1,121 innings, basically a top-third number valued at just under $1 million. His 90 assists ranked 11th at the position, generating a final $77,000.
The bottom-line portrait of Olson is of a player making a surprisingly healthy contribution, perhaps quietly. Based solely on his on-field performance, he was more valuable than a bunch of far-better-known and better-compensated guys, among them Jose Abreu, Edwin Encarnacion, and Joey Votto.
6. Yuli Gurriel, Houston Astros, $8.128 million value; $10.4 million salary
Among the 35 MLB first basemen encompassed in this assessment, Yuli Gurriel is one of the few whose contract bottom line and production roughly balance out one another. For virtually all of the rest, either ownership is taking advantage of the player or the player is taking advantage of ownership.
Gurriel brings a combination of traits to his work with the Astros. Since slugging percentage is half of the overall formula, it’s virtually impossible to rank high without doing at least representatively well in that area. Gurriel’s .541 slugging average ranked fifth among first basemen in 2019, valuing out to $4.622 million.
His .343 on base average was mediocre, only fractionally above the .340 positional average. That translated out to $2.379 million in justified salary, about $20,000 more than the group average.
But Gurriel could be counted on. He played nearly 1,250 innings during the season, the sixth highest total among all first basemen, and worth more than $1 million. His 73 assists were only slightly above the group average of 65, adding a final $62,000.
Most of Gurriel’s career was spent in Cuba making him an anomalous figure from a value standpoint: a 36-year-old fourth year player. The deal that brought him out of Cuba will pay another $8.4 million in 2020, and financially it will be interesting to see how arbitration treats a 37-year-old first-year in 2021.
5. Carlos Santana, Cleveland Indians, $8.227 million value; $20.333 million contract
The Phillies signed Carlos Santana to a three-year, $60 million deal prior to the 2018 season for reasons that escape rational explanation. He was coming off a 2017 season when he hit .259 with 23 home runs for the Indians, and somehow Phils management convinced itself that he was the first baseman the team needed to put it over the top.
When Santana’s 2018 play failed to even approximate that level of faith, he was included in a trade to Seattle, and 10 days after that packaged back to Cleveland. It is contracts like Santana’s that have put the Indians in a financial bind such that they felt compelled to trade away Corey Kluber…go figure.
It’s not that Santana is a bad player; he’s merely wildly over-valued. He hit .281 for the Indians in 2019, and his .515 slugging average was good enough to justify $4.4 million in value. His .397 on base average ranked behind only Anthony Rizzo, adding another $2.75 million to his worth.
Obviously his performance is never going to approach the $20 million he was paid. As an aside, first base is a position where you get paid a substantial premium for reputation, which is why a half dozen other players – Albert Pujols, Chris Davis, Eric Hosmer, Joey Votto, Edwin Encarnacion, and Freddie Freeman – surpassed that $20 million salary level. For the record, only one of them made the positional top 10.
Santana did log a representative 1,186 innings, ninth best and worth a bit more than $1 million. His 73 assists were nothing to write home about, adding just $62,000 to his final value.
4. Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs, $8.403 million value; $12.286 million contract
Anthony Rizzo is probably the marketing face of the Cubs franchise, making his salary entirely defensible – arguably even a bargain – despite the fact that it isn’t fully covered by his on-field deeds.
Those deeds are both good and consistent. He produced a .520 slugging average in 2019 founded on 27 home runs, 94 RBIs and a .293 batting average. None of those were career highs, but they are predictable. Rizzo has delivered at least that much annually since 2015.
His .520 slugging average was only seventh best at the position, generating $4.43 million in value. But Rizzo had multiple assets. His .405 on base average was No. 1, justifying another $2.8 million. He was also relatively durable, playing 1,227 innings, the position’s eight best total. Add another $1 million plus change.
Finally, Rizzo could find the ball with the best of them. He racked up 123 assists, the second highest amongst MLB first baseman behind only Walker, and valued at $105,000.
The question for the Cubs is whether a similar line will be good enough going forward. Rizzo is signed through 2020 at $16.5 million, and the Cubs hold a similarly priced option for 2021. At $16.5 million, we’re talking real money, and Chicago’s interest in holding on to Rizzo for marketing purposes may hinge on what happens to the team on the field this year.
3. Josh Bell, Pittsburgh Pirates, $8.479 million value, $587,000 salary
Since the Pirates don’t have a lot of talent on hand, Josh Bell is almost certainly their prime asset, and he’s arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter. His on-field production alone justifies at least two years worth of an investment, and he is the team’s most logical candidate for a long-term extension. What does the Pirates new front office do?
Bell batted .277 in 2019 with an impressive 37 home runs, one of which reached the Allegheny River.
So we’re talking about legit power here. His .569 slugging average ranked second among all MLB first basemen, and priced out to $4.86 million in value.
He’s also adept at reaching base. Bell delivered a .367 on base average that included 74 bases on balls. Only four first basemen exceeded that, the .367 figure valuing out at $2.545 million.
His 1,161 innings on the field didn’t quite measure up to top 10 status, but it was still 240 innings above the positional average, equating to $991,000. His 96 assists were also solidly above the group average of 65, if not rising to an elite level.
Like Pete Alonso, Olson, Hoskins and Walker, Bell is part of that class of first basemen that is an MLB front office dream: His production far exceeds his cost. With free agency that will change, although the happy new for Pirate fans is that in Bell’s case free agency remains four seasons in the future.
2. Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves, $8.61 million value; $21 million salary
As with Rizzo, Goldschmidt and – to a lesser extent Santana – one understands that Freddie Freeman is being paid only in part for his on-field production. That being so, the fact that he will never approximate an equitable on-field return on the team’s investment in him isn’t a fair measure of his contract.
It’s also worth noting that to the extent Freeman is taking advantage of the Braves in the more than $100 million, five-year deal he signed prior to the 2017 season, he’s only squaring the books. Between 2011 and 2013, Freeman also generated multi-million-dollar positional value, and did so for salaries that barely, if at all, exceeded the minimum.
That’s the way baseball’s salary system works: Owners work over the players for the first several seasons, then the players – at least those who survive – work over the owners.
Freeman’s .549 slugging average was third best among his peers in 2019, justifying $4.69 million in salary. His .389 on base average, again third best, added another $2.69 million in value.
He played 1,366 innings, the majors’ third highest total among first basemen, valuing out to $1.165 million. His range, as reflected by his total of 66 assists, was only average, probably costing him the position’s No. 1 spot.
1. Pete Alonso, New York Mets, $8.692 million value; $555,000 salary
From an MLB front-office standpoint, Pete Alonso’s 2019 was a dream season. Every general manager wants a 50-homer guy who drives in 120, plays every day and gets paid the minimum. Gimme a team of those guys.
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That was what Alonso did for the Mets: he starred, and he did so affordably.
His 50 homers – 53 if you’re counting – fueled a .583 slugging average that was the position’s best. That alone justified nearly a $5 million salary, or about nine times what he was actually paid.
His on base average didn’t rise to a similar level. But at .358, it did rank eighth for the position, equating to nearly $2.5 million.
He did so through 1,328 innings of play, the fifth best total at the position, justifying a further $1.133 million. If all Alonso had done all season was stand at first base, he would have been worth more than twice what the Mets actually paid him.
His 112 assists showed maneuverability. That total ranked fifth at the position, worth a bit less than $100,000.
Next. Dollar values of the top MLB catchers. dark
Put that together in combination and you have a first baseman worth nearly $8.7 million for his on-field play. If Alonso has another season in 2020 like he did in 2019, he may be making $8.9 million far sooner than most players of his experience level.