Philadelphia Phillies: 2020's direction for trades, signings

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The Phillies could be targeting Boyd for their rotation. Photo by Ron Vesely/MLB Photos via Getty Images. /

The deals awaiting the Phillies will require more than outbidding other franchises for the best pitchers available, but general manager Matt Klentak is at the point where moving some players will free up financial resources to plug those holes.

GM’s Preferences:

For some Philadelphia Phillies faithful, overspending is the answer to just keeping up for a wild-card shot or the National League East pennant. So, they exaggerate the strengths of their divisional foes and the Fightins’ shortcomings, but the oppositions’ supporters have the same mind-set. Can’t win for losing!

IN OTHER WORDS: “It is difficult to spread the contagion of excitement without having a sense of purpose and direction.” – Daniel Goleman

Can you find the common denominator between the red pinstripes, New York Yankees, Washington Nationals, Toronto Blue Jays, Atlanta Braves and New York Mets? Answer: None of them handed out big contracts to more than one top-tier starter or fireman. They all added only one –one– piece.

While locals here are clamoring for another solid addition, Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs fans are bemoaning 2019’s disappointments and 2020’s salary-dumping plans. Yes, both organizations are now villains who make disbelieved excuses of fiscal responsibility and hear they don’t care about winning.

Even though the Phils had signed a frontline starter and a left-handed bat with power, some fans believe it was neither a complete effort nor fast enough. No, they want a southpaw rotation arm and two relievers. But who is available, and whom will no exec acquire until around the All-Star break?

Clubs who recently inked a top-dollar star with a multi-year pact aren’t swapping their closer or a starter unless their offseason pickup replaces a soon-to-be free agent. However, rebuilding teams will trade hurlers with multi-year control for a prospect haul, but they also have the luxury of waiting until July.

Salary-dump players have a downside for Klentak because they would result in exceeding the CBT (competitive-balance threshold). Therefore, don’t expect him to go the bad-contract route. But difference-makers are his targets: small ones now and major ones in July unless the higher-up lowers his AAV tally.

To decipher Klentak’s strategy, examine the order of his signings, the market, the competition, the Fightins’ expectations and realistic possibilities. Also, sober assessment means spending $118 million for five campaigns, not $324 million for nine summers. But the Yanks believe they are one ace away from dominance.

The Phillies will probably pursuit Givens in January. Photo by Mary Holt/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. /

Halfway there:

For one free-agent moundsman, the Phillies spent $118 million to the Yankees ($324 million), the Nationals ($275 million), the Blue Jays ($80 million), the Braves ($30 million) and the Mets ($10.5 million). And these expenditures indicate one big splash with fiscal sanity elsewhere. Ergo, business as usual!

Because the red pinstripes are more than one piece away, Klentak decided on Zack Wheeler banking on a one-notch elevation to a solid two-slot hurler. Unfortunately, the starting staff prices for fours and fives have also been high, and that expensiveness is the rub.

Having a left-side bat in the lineup was next. For, however, only $14 million, Didi Gregorius inked a one-season pact with Alec Bohm developing to man 2021’s hot corner. Realistically, every franchise needs a mix of stars and inexpensive youngsters and hopes the newcomers make an impact in their third year.

Despite the faithful’s positive view of their divisional rivals, the Metropolitans’ bullpen had needed that top-notch arm more, and they willingly guaranteed another $3.5 million to best the Phils’ offer. But their windfall was due to a reworked commitment after an outfielder’s questionable injury they’ve yet to fully reveal.

Adding pitchers will require freeing up AAV dollars. So, Klentak can deal Jay Bruce‘s $12 million AAV –his payroll amount is $1.65 million– and Odubel Herrera‘s $6.1 million AAV. Plus freeing up the AAV payroll space or swapping them could lead to a rotation and/or pen pieces in a trade or signing.

After five consecutive solid years, Harris may be a late-signing bargain for the Phillies. Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images. /

Toeing the rubber:

Even if the Phillies don’t add the late-inning presence the fans want, the July deadline will depend on organizations making their closer available. And the most likely difference-makers could come from Toronto, the Cincinnati Reds, Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Indians.

While the Nats are hesitant to propose more than one campaign for Daniel Hudson, other clubs aren’t willing to commit an estimated $12 million for two summers either. Basically, he thrived in the second half and the playoffs with an average fastball of 96.4 mph (98.5 mph tops) and a slider, but he has a spotty track record.

Despite five straight years of solid numbers, Will Harris, 35, will probably sign for less than the projected $9 million each per 162 for two seasons. And only the Minnesota Twins have shown any interest so far. So, Hudson and Harris will probably be January pickups or bargains.

Keone Kela, 26, of the Pittsburgh Pirates had a 2.12 ERA and has an estimated arb of $3.4 million. In 2018, he had converted 24 saves with a 3.29 ERA, but he also missed from May 5 through July 23 in 2019. Plus the flamethrower’s fastball averages 96.6 mph (high of 98.6 mph). But is there selling low in this market?

Fireballer Mychal Givens, 29, of the Baltimore Orioles has a projected $3.2 million arb ahead with two campaigns of team control, but he recorded a 4.57 ERA with 11 saves and seven holds. Last July, though, Klentak showed interest probably due to a fastball that touches 99.5 mph and averages 95.7 mph.

With the Detroit Tigers, Joe Jimenez, 25, has a 95.5-mph four-seam fastball that reaches 99.1 mph; plus he had nine saves out of 10 chances for two months of closing with a 3.06 ERA (4.37 overall ERA). However, he is another hurler working low pressure spots at the MLB minimum. But he has four summers of control.

Kela could be a good fit for the Phillies: He’s young, has good stuff and closing experience. Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images. /

Finish line:

While many Phillies detractors might believe no other acquisitions are forthcoming, moundsmen are available through swaps. But David Price and J.A. Happ are salary dumps the Fightins aren’t willing to pay a CBT tax for. No, they are the Sox’s and Yanks’ AAV monetary problems.

Tigers lefty Matthew Boyd, 28, made 32 starts, recorded 185 1/3 frames, and went 9-12 with a 4.39 ERA: a 3.89 NL ERA equivalent without the designated hitter. Additionally, his arb estimate is $6.4 million, and he has three campaigns of control. Plus he struck out 238 and surrendered 39 home runs with 2019’s homer-friendly ball.

What will the Arizona Diamondbacks do with southpaw Robbie Ray, 28? The portsider had a 4.34 ERA with a 12-8 mark, 235 punch outs and 30 bombs allowed. However, he’ll be a free agent after this 162, and his projected arb income is $10.8 million. But will the D-backs move him now or wait for July’s wild-card possibilities.

Entering ’20, Klentak can deal Herrera and Bruce for $18.1 million of AAV payroll flexibility, or he can swap them for pitching. But he could also negotiate down the price for a reliever in late January and reevaluate the red pinstripes’ needs around July 1. Realistically, he could be better off waiting for the right opportunity instead.

Armchair GMs have many sayings to justify their beliefs and fears. Firstly, their rivals have better players and management, and only the Phils –no one else– must ink more than one top-tier star. Plus it’s so easy to give the studs –or their agents– what they want, but what fair-minded man would that be? Scott Boras?

The Phillies have interest in Ray’s arb price, left-handed arm and age. Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images. /

The Numerical Bible:

More from Call to the Pen

This Phillies review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.

Phillies bullpen targets tradewise:

Kelo, 26.5: 32 Gms., 29 2/3 Inn., a 2.12 ERA, 1 Save, 6 Holds, a 3.52 FIP, a 4.28 xFIP, a 3.81 SIERA, a 0.4 fWAR and a 1.01 WHIP.
Givens, 29.5: 58 Gms., 63 Inn., a 4.57 ERA, 11 Saves, 7 Holds, a 4.50 FIP, a 3.62 xFIP, a 3.34 SIERA, a 0.5 fWAR and a 1.19 WHIP.
Jimenez, almost 25: 66 Gms., 59 2/3 Inn., a 4.37 ERA, 9 Saves, 15 Holds, a 4.66 FIP, a 4.19 xFIP, a 3.41 SIERA, a 0.3 fWAR and a 1.32 WHIP.

Phillies bullpen targets to sign:

Hudson, 32.5:
Total: 69 Gms. (1 opener), 73 Inn., a 2.47 ERA, 8 Saves, 11 Holds, a 3.97 FIP, a 5.08 xFIP, a 4.31 SIERA, a 0.9 fWAR and a 1.14 WHIP.
Nationals: 24 Gms., 25 Inn., a 1.44 ERA, 6 Saves, 3 Holds and a 0.88 WHIP.
Harris, 35: 68 Gms., 60 Inn., a 1.50 ERA, 4 Saves, 26 Holds, a 3.15 FIP, a 3.04 xFIP, a 3.18 SIERA, a 1.1 fWAR and a 0.93 WHIP.

Phillies rotation targets tradewise:

Ray, 28: 33 Gms., 174 1/3 Inn., 12-8, a 4.34 ERA, a 4.29 FIP, a 3.76 xFIP, a 4.02 SIERA, a 2.4 fWAR and a 1.34 WHIP.
Boyd, almost 29: 32 Gms., 185 1/3 Inn., 9-12, a 4.39 ERA, a 4.45 FIP, a 4.72 xFIP, a 3.61 SIERA, a 2.1 fWAR and a 1.23 WHIP.

Next. Phillies: 2020's playoff-bound ifs (a long version). dark

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