Phillies: Are there really any viable Plans B at this point?

The Phillies allowing a quite decent bench player to be signed by another team points to potential problems for a team that’s used up their money on Plan A.

Noting that the Philadelphia Phillies recently eschewed re-signing Corey Dickerson, an outfielder who played well for them last season, their fans should have had a question or two about the coming season for the club arise in their minds. One hopes these questions have already occurred to the Phillies front office.

Since the Fightin’s seem thoroughly spooked by a competitive balance tax, questions about Plan B – or more accurately, several Plans B – should be asked.

All of these questions fall into the What If category, and four immediately leap to mind, the first two having to do with the outfield, universally assumed to be Andrew McCutchen (returning from an ACL tear and repair), Adam Haseley (returning from a surprisingly good rookie year), and Bryce Harper (who has a mere 12 years remaining on his very costly contract).

Let’s get all of the questions out of the way first, though:

1. What if McCutchen is greatly diminished as a player after his surgery? After all, he is entering his 12th MLB and age-33 season.
2. What if Haseley has a sophomore slump? It’s been known to happen; it’s why we have the phrase.
3. What if the Three Failing Amigos – Zach Eflin, Vince Velasquez, and Nick Pivetta – continue to fail as starters? Well, one can, but no more.
4. What if Mr. Fastest Ever to – Um – 18 Homers, Rhys Hoskins, hits .226 again? Those quick 18 bombs seemed so important at the beginning of his career, all of two years ago.

The general point here is that if any one of these things happens, the Phillies may well have a significant problem on their hands that may not be solvable until the midseason trade deadline.

Let’s consider…

The Outfield (and a Surprising Rating)

Here’s an interesting number. Andrew McCutchen, a former NL MVP, has a career Baseball-Reference WAR of 43.6, but last season that figure was added to by only 1.4. Well, sure, you might say, he only played in a handful of games last year. In fact, McCutchen played in 59 games for the Phillies before his injury, while Adam Haseley ended up playing in 67 games after Odubel Herrera’s suspension.

And Haseley’s WAR was 1.7. Additionally, McCutchen’s and Haseley’s at-bat, hits, and RBI totals were remarkably similar — 219/222, 56/59, and 29/26, respectively. McCutchen did have double the number of Haseley’s home runs (10 to five), but arguably, right now Haseley is as important and as questionable a factor for the Phillies as the 2013 NL MVP.

Still, you would likely say, McCutchen versus a rookie? Indeed, the likelihood that McCutchen is useless next season seems minimal. After all, he didn’t injure his shoulder or wrist, and his bat remains very quick, but still, time runs out for all of us.

The more important question is, what if both of them don’t work out for some reason? What do the Phillies do?  The answers right now are Jay Bruce, Roman Quinn, and Nick Williams. That means a guy with limited skills who may be a useful bench bat, a guy who’s literally always injured, and a guy who’s a disappointment. Consider the outfields in the rest of the NL East. Either McCutchen or Haseley not working out would also be a problem.

Do Phillies fans have to count on Herrera not being released before Opening Day for a “baseball reason,” as required by agreement with the Players Association, or being traded for a bag of balls? You don’t want to look up this guy’s progression for the last three years. Really.

OK, Next Questions

Next, Phillies fans must consider their starting rotation. Most have extremely high confidence in Aaron Nola, but considerably less confidence in the repaired arm of overpriced Jake Arrieta (however gritty he is) and the new guy, Zack Wheeler (however hard he throws).

After them are Eflin, Velasquez, and Pivetta, who have records so impressive in their mediocrity that they, the players, should be really annoyed about them – motivated, to use another term, and frankly, thankful – specifically that the Phillies management has put up with them for so long – Eflin, the youngest, somewhat excepted.

However, if you’re really paying attention, it should be clear that before June 1st the Phillies could have four pitchers with losing records without even burping loudly. The guy with the winning record could be Nola, Arrieta, Wheeler, or Eflin, but only a fool would bet on two of them with positive won-lost postings.

So, what happens in the worst-case scenario for starters, then?

Who knows, barring late winter acquisitions? At the moment, there are two guys on the active roster named Garrett Cleavinger and Mauricio Llovera. It is unclear whether these guys could be MLB starters because…what the hell are they doing on the active roster?

Even in December.

Llovera has something of a starter’s career record and WHIP (1.18), but in the minors no higher than Double-A. And where is Spencer Howard?

OK, so this is a work in progress. Phillies management surely knows what it’s doing.

And you heard it here first. They will sign a now sub-par free agent before spring training – maybe Ivan Nova or Homer Bailey.

OK, then, good plan.