2020 MLB Season: Checking in on Division Odds
Call To The Pen is checking in with ‘The Action Network’ to find value on Division Odds for the 2020 MLB season.
Pitchers and Catchers report in February and the 2020 MLB Season will be upon us before we know it. We checked in last week on Win Total Over/Unders and where you should be betting. Today, we turn our attention to the Division Odds.
Our partner, The Action Network, provides us with the latest over/under totals to bet on. These numbers will continue to shift as the off-season progresses but there can be value in betting these lines early before more signings or trades. Here are the best value lines available before the start of the new year.
AL East
The AL East is one of three divisions with a minus odds favorite. The Yankees are the clear favorite at -222 after adding ace Gerrit Cole to an already formidable team.
Despite a down year after their World Series title, the Red Sox are second in the division with odds +300. The Rays continue to win on a shoestring budget and took the Astros to Game 5 in the divisional series.
As for the lowly Orioles at +50000, take the Kevin Malone approach. Except you get 5X richer! (this is not happening, don’t do this).
The Rays look like the best value in this division as they look to build on last season’s success.
2020 MLB Season: Checking in on Division Odds
AL Central
Fresh off 101 wins in 2019, the Twins are at +125 to repeat as division kings for the 2020 MLB season but the favorite odds belong to the Indians at +110.
You should probably stay far away from the Indians who have already moved Corey Kluber and are looking to sell off other pieces like Francisco Lindor and Mike Clevinger.
The White Sox are currently sitting at +375 after making high impact signings like Dallas Kuechel and Yasmani Grandal. They will be better but they aren’t quite in the same class as the Indians and Twins.
The Royals +8000 and Tigers +10000 are deep in their rebuild and don’t figure to be serious contenders for a few more years.
The best value here is the Twins, fresh off signing Rich Hill and Homer Bailey, since they have stabilized the rotation and still have the money to sign someone like Josh Donaldson.
AL West
The Houston Astros start the year as the clear favorite in the West at -286. There is still no word on what their discipline will be from the sign-stealing scandal so if its a favorite you’re after, the Yankees would offer more certainty.
Oakland has overcome slow starts each of the past two seasons to make the Wild Card game. The Athletics could be a good value at +350 if you think full season from AJ Puk and Jesus Luzardo will push them forward.
The Angels have Mike Trout, new signee Anthony Rendon, and others in the fold but Vegas isn’t buying the hype giving them odds at +550. The Angels have struggled to put a winner around Mike Trout and while the number may be alluring, I think they are all sizzle no steak.
The Rangers +3000 and Mariners +10000 round out the division’s worst odds. The Rangers are opening a new ballpark but are still in transition while trader Jerry continues to eye a contention window down the road.
2020 MLB Season: Checking in on Division Odds
NL East
This division is going to be an all-out war each day. The Braves are the favorite with +175 odds than the other three contenders, including the defending champion Nationals (along with Philly and the Mets), are at +275. This division is going to come down to who stays healthy and who has the depth to battle for 162 games.
The Braves won the division handily last year and they should be favorites with Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman, and a strong farm system making their way up.
I would stay far away from the Phillies in this one. In Bryce Harper’s historic MVP 2015 season, the Nats only won 83 games and missed the playoffs. Yes, they signed Zack Wheeler and have an ace in Aaron Nola, but you have to wonder if they have enough firepower to actually win the division.
The Nationals will presumably be a popular bet after winning the World Series and retaining Stephen Strasburg. Carter Kieboom will make up for some of the loss of Rendon. Their Achilles heal remains to be a bullpen that ranked at the bottom third of the league and gave everyone a queasy feeling when they were brought into the game.
The Marlins,+15000, also play in this division.
2020 MLB Season: Checking in on Division Odds
NL Central
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The NL Central might be the most fascinating division in all of baseball. They have co-favorites at +190 in the Cubs and Cardinals. The Brewers and Reds sport +350 odds and the lowly Pirates round out the group at +3300.
The Cubs blew the division with a horrid September but still (for now) maintain most of the core from last season. Theo Epstein and co have been largely quiet as they await a resolution on Kris Bryant’s service time grievance hearing.
The Brewers won the Division in 2018 and still only finished two games out in 2019 despite losing Christian Yelich all September to a fractured kneecap. David Stearns as proved adept at building teams but he’s getting the same odds as the Reds? The same Reds who haven’t won over 76 games in a season since 2013? Give me the Brewers as a value play here.
The Cubs look primed to take a step back and the Cardinals will continue to churn out average players from nothing, but can still be beat.
NL West
This Division is basically spoken for. The Dodgers are the clear favorite at -455. Deservedly so because they have won the West every year since 2013.
The closest its realistically been was the 2018 tie-breaker game with Colorado.
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The Books think the Padres have the “best” odds of any team to dethrone the Dodgers at +450. The path for the Padres would be every prospect shows up and performs above expectation and the Dodgers end up hurt. The rest of the teams find themselves with virtually no shot (Diamondbacks +1200, Rockies +1600, Giants +4000).