NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 29: Dominic Smith #22 of the New York Mets celebrates after hitting a walk-off 3-run home run in the bottom of the eleventh inning against the Atlanta Braves at Citi Field on September 29, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
The 2019 MLB season was a record-breaking year for the longball, but there were a few dingers that stood out a bit more than the rest. Here were the 5 best walk-off home runs of the year.
The event of witnessing a home run was taken to a different level this past season, as the league totaled 6,776 long balls during the 2019 MLB season — almost 1,200 more than the previous season. Really, this current decade has been eye-opening as it pertains to home runs, considering the first season of the decade (2010) ended with a middling total of 4,613 — a mark that was reached in mid-August of the 2019 MLB season.
But we already know this. The influx of home runs has been one of, if not the most, dominant topic of discussion for several years now. Balls just keep leaving the stadium.
We’ve even narrowed down the reasons as to why this home run epidemic has spread, as various reports have surfaced detailing changes to the very thing that’s constantly being slugged out of the park — the baseball.
So whether or not you’re pro-homer or one of the many fans that’s a bit annoyed by all these long balls, a list highlighting such things may not be of much interest to you. But for those of you that still enjoy this now-ordinary event, it can be fun to look back at some of the more impressive home runs hit this past season.
Just any ol’ home run isn’t really much cause for interest, but homers that actually won games or brought a team back from behind… now those are still usually exciting. You could call these clutch or simply important — whatever you like. In this exercise I’m calling them the best, simply because I’m choosing to rank these homers objectively, using a metric to help.
This metric is called Win Probability Added (or WPA), a statistic that measures a player’s contribution to a win, using win expectancy. Each play during a game positively or negatively impacts a team’s win expectancy, and so at any point during a game, each team will have an expectancy to win ranging from 0-100%. WPA is that shift or change in win expectancy caused by the player.
For example: the Braves are batting in the bottom of the seventh inning, down one run with runners on first and second with one out. Let’s say the Braves currently have a win expectancy of 44%, with first baseman Freddie Freeman walking to the plate to take his at-bat. Then, Freeman proceeds to hit a three-run home run, giving the Braves a two-run advantage in the bottom of the seventh. The Braves are now obviously favored, up by two runs, and now the team’s win expectancy is 74% — an increase of 30%, or 0.3 WPA. Freeman is responsible for +0.3 WPA for that hit, as he contributed to a 30% swing in win expectancy for the Braves by giving the team a two-run lead with his home run.
Now that’s purely a random example. Win expectancy is derived from historical data, which basically gives us the odds of either team winning a particular game given the specific game state, based on the score, how many outs are there, how many runners are on base… etc. We don’t really need to get into all of that.
All we’re after in this exercise are home runs that created the most WPA or the largest swing in win expectancy; and to add excitement, we’re after the best walk-off home runs, the ones that won the game.
During the 2019 MLB season there were 77 walk-off home runs, with September being the busiest of months (totaling 16 walk-off long balls) and the LA Dodgers the league’s walk-off leader with seven walk-off homers. Of those 77 game-ending homers, 36 were pulled, 29 hit straight up the middle and 12 to the opposite field.
Take a look at the five best walk-off home runs from the 2019 MLB season, compiled by WPA.
5 best walk-off home runs of the 2019 MLB season
Kevin Newman slugs one for Blass – WPA: 0.84
The Pirates’ beloved broadcaster Steve Blass was sent outright, as Kevin Newman belted a scorching line drive over the left-field wall, winning the game for Pittsburgh.
(skip to 0:20 for walk-off)
The situation: Its Game 1 of the final regular-season series for the Pirates, a contest at home with just over 18,000 fans in attendance. Despite such a poor showing, it was Blass’ final weekend calling Pirates’ games and a September, Friday night Buccos’ fans will always remember.
The Reds had jumped out to a 2-0 lead to start off the game thanks to an error and fielder’s choice in the top of the 1st. The Reds added two more runs in the 5th, but the Pirates scored two of their own in the bottom of the inning from a two-run homer… by none other than Kevin Newman (a home run worth 0.16 WPA itself).
After another Reds’ run in the top of the 8th, the Pirates entered the bottom half of the 9th inning down 5-4, their last chance to come back, again.
The Reds’ Raisel Iglesias was on the mound and he quickly allowed a single to Jake Elmore, followed by a wild pitch that gave Elmore time to advance to second. Iglesias settled down, though, forcing back-to-back groundouts off the bat of Erik Gonzalez and Melky Cabrera, putting two outs on the board and giving way for Newman to become the hero.
Newman came to the plate with the Pirates having just a 16% win expectancy, as the Reds were in an outstanding situation to come away with the win. Although, fortunately for the Pirates, Iglesias wasn’t the same pitcher as he was in 2018. The hard-throwing righty was struggling, and Newman worked a 1-1 count.
On the third pitch of the at-bat, Iglesias grooved an 84 mph pitch right down broadway and Newman jumped all over it, slapping a scorching shot just high enough to clear the left-field wall. Pirates win 6-5.
Newman’s first home run (0.16 WPA) and game-winning homer (0.84) accounted for all of the Pirates’ positive WPA that Friday night, meaning you could honestly say he truly won the game all by himself!
5 best walk-off home runs of the 2019 MLB season
Matt Chapman caps off the A’s epic comeback – WPA: 0.85
On a Thursday night in June, the Athletics were down three runs to begin the final inning, but thanks to a bomb to left-center by third baseman Matt Chapman, Oakland wins a big game at home.
The situation: Oakland’s Jurickson Profar put the Athletics on the board in the 5th inning with a solo homer off the Rays’ Charlie Morton, but other than Profar’s homer Morton was dealing as he struck out six in 6.1 innings and allowed just four hits.
The Rays’ Tommy Pham answered back by belting a home run in the top of the 6th, plus two singles off Blake Treinen (from the Rays’ Avisail Garcia and Ji-Man Choi) in the top of the 9th, followed by a sac-bunt from Willy Adames later in the inning (off Ryan Butcher), put the Rays up 4-1 going into the bottom of the 9th inning.
Oakland’s Robbie Grossman comes to the plate to face the Rays’ Diego Castillo with Athletics at just a 9% win expectancy. Castillo walks Grossman on five pitches, then throws a wild pitch to the next batter (Stephen Piscotty), allowing Grossman to advance to second. Piscotty grounds out to the SS/3B hole, freezing Grossman at second and putting the A’s first out on the board. Profar comes up next, with just an 11% win expectancy, and forces an eight-pitch walk, before Beau Taylor comes to the plate and strikes out looking.
The Athletics are down to their last out, with runners on first and second, down by three runs. Marcus Semien steps up to face Castillo and on the third pitch of the at-bat, blasts a single through the SS/2B hole, scoring Grossman and advancing Profar to third (plus Semien is able to advance to second on the throw). The Athletics have a chance with Chapman coming to the dish as the winning run, but their win expectancy is stuck at just 15% (because… 2 outs).
With Profar on third and Semien on second, Chapman takes the first pitch from Castillo for a ball before Castillo throws an 87-mph breaking ball at the very bottom of the zone. Chapman guesses right and squares the pitch up, sending the ball way over the left-center wall, sending the roughly 12,000 fans in attendance in a frenzy. Oakland wins 5-4.
5 best walk-off home runs of the 2019 MLB season
Charlie Blackmon’s first homer is a game-winner – WPA: 0.88
On a cool Friday night in April, the Rockies’ Charlie Blackmon connects for his first home run of the 2019 MLB season, a 2-run blast to win the game versus the Philadelphia Phillies, at Coors Field.
The situation: After the Phillies put a run on the board in the 1st and 5th innings, the Rockies finally got a few of their own in the bottom of the 6th, when Trevor Story connected for a solo-homer and Garret Hampson an RBI double, tying the game at two apiece.
Despite both starting pitchers (Phillies: Vince Velasquez / Rockies: German Marquez) allowing 17 hits combined, neither lineups could muster any more runs, as both teams unleashed their bullpens, starting in the 6th inning. The game stretched into the 12th inning.
In the top half of the 12th with 2 outs, the Phillies’ Bryce Harper roped a line-drive double to left-center off Rockies’ reliever Chad Bettis, scoring Phil Gosselin and giving the Phils a one-run advantage in extras (a hit worth 0.38 WPA). Bettis was able to force a groundout off Rhys Hoskins to get out of the inning, but the damage had been done and the Rockies were up against some pretty tough odds.
Philadelphia sent out Juan Nicasio for the bottom of the 12th after he worked through 17 pitches and didn’t allow a single hit in the previous inning. Nicasio was tasked with facing Hampson, Tony Wolters, and Raimel Tapia, with Blackmon batting fourth in the half-inning.
Hampson grounded out, Wolters walked and Tapia flew out to left, giving the Rockies just one more chance to come back, down 3-2. Blackmon stepped to the plate with the Rockies having just a 12% win expectancy, quite a long shot for a team with one out away from losing.
Blackmon worked the count a bit, forcing Nicasio to throw three pitches. With a 1-2 count, Nicasio came back to the outside corner, but he threw a 94-mph fastball straight as an arrow and waist-high. Blackmon connected and barely sent it over the right-center wall, into the Phillies’ bullpen. The Rockies win 4-3, and Blackmon gets his first homer of the 2019 MLB season, on April 19. The game ended after 4 hours and 26 minutes of play.
5 best walk-off home runs of the 2019 MLB season
Rio Ruiz’s second HR in two days is a game-winner – WPA: 0.90
Down a run in the final inning of an August 11 matchup against the Houston Astros, Rio Ruiz hits his second homer in as many days, giving the Orioles the upset win.
The situation: The Orioles actually jumped out in front of Justin Verlander and the Astros in the first inning, thanks to another former Brave, Jace Peterson, who hit a run-scoring line-drive double down the right-field line. However, Houston scored three runs in their half of the 2nd.
Baltimore answered back in the bottom of the 2nd inning, from Trey Mancini‘s RBI single to left, cutting the Orioles deficient to just one (3-2). Two more runs in the 5th and a run in the 6th, gave the Orioles a nice cushion, as Peterson struck again with an RBI triple, Hanser Alberto a sac-fly and Mancini another RBI single. Orioles lead 5-3.
But a 7th-inning RBI groundout by Houston’s Jose Altuve cut the lead to just one, and then a three-run triple by Michael Brantley in the top of the 9th gave the Astros a two-run advantage (7-5) going into the final half-inning. The Orioles were left with a difficult task: score three runs while being forced to face the Astros’ Robert Osuna.
The bottom of the 9th started out promising, as Peterson once again came through for Baltimore, slapping a double to left. Richie Martin came to bat next and moved Peterson to third with a groundout. Osuna then hit Chance Sisco on the second pitch of the at-bat, putting runners on the corners with just one out.
Chris Davis came up next and on a 1-0 pitch popped up to left field, giving Peterson enough time to score on the sac-fly, but giving Baltimore just one more out to work with. With Ruiz coming to plate, the Orioles had just a 10% win expectancy and their luck was fading.
Ruiz fought off a few pitches, working the count 2-2, and on the seventh pitch of the at-bat Osuna tries to go to the outside corner with something soft, but it catches too much of the plate at just 85 mph… Ruiz quickly turns on it and nearly drives it out of the stadium. Orioles win, 8-7, improving their record to just 39-78 in front of a crowd of just 17,000. It’s easily the biggest home run of Ruiz’s career, a career including just 14 homers for the 25-year-old.
5 best walk-off home runs of the 2019 MLB season
Dominic Smith returns with a gift in Game 162 – WPA: 0.91
In his first at-bat since July 26, Dominic Smith comes through for the NY Mets in the final game of the season, belting a one of the best walk-off home runs of the season.
The situation: The Braves and Mets were matched up at Citi Field on September 29 for Game 162, with a surprisingly large crowd on hand (31,523). After one frame the Mets had a 3-1 advantage against Mike Soroka and the Bravos, after a sac-fly by Robinson Cano and a two-run homer off the bat of J.D. Davis.
In the 4th, the Braves struck with a two-run home run from Triple-A star, Rafael Ortega, as he took New York’s Noah Syndergaard deep to right field, scoring Matt Joyce in the process and tying the game at three apiece.
However, in the top of the 11th, the Braves put two runs on the board as Hechavarria homered again, as well as Adam Duvall, both off of Walker Lockett. With the Braves up 6-4, it looked as if Atlanta was set to cap off the 2019 MLB season on a positive note, by beating a division opponent to end the year.
The Mets came to bat in the bottom of the 11th with a 9% chance to win and the bottom of the order due up. Luis Guillorme was up first, facing the Braves Jerry Blevins. Guillorme worked six pitches from Blevins before slapping a single to left, improving the Mets win expectancy to a still slim 18%. Tomas Nido came to bat next but struck out looking on four pitches, dropping New York’s win expectancy back down to 10%.
The Braves replaced Blevins with reliever Anthony Swarzak, who immediately surrendered a Wilson Ramos single through the 3B/SS hole, moving Guillorme up to second. The Mets’ Rene Rivera came to the plate next and struck out swinging, stranding Guillorme at second and giving New York two outs. The Mets’ chances to win were down to just 9%, as the Braves went back to the ‘pen to bring in the young Grant Dayton.
Dominic Smith, who had been out for the last 2 months, was making his return from injury. Smith was up against a terrible situation, down two runs with just one out to work with. Making his first plate appearance since July 26, it was all up to him.
dark. Next. Phillies: Are there really any viable Plans B?
Dayton’s first pitch to Smith was a ball, but the second one was a 91-mph fastball at the top of the zone. Smith, full extended, turned on Dayton’s second pitch and drove it just over the right-center wall for one of the best walk-off home runs to end the game — Mets win 7-6. The Mets went from a 9% chance to win to winners in mere seconds, as Smith ended the Mets’ 2019 MLB season at 10 games above .500 (86-76).
