Five best walk-off home runs of the 2019 MLB season

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 29: Dominic Smith #22 of the New York Mets celebrates after hitting a walk-off 3-run home run in the bottom of the eleventh inning against the Atlanta Braves at Citi Field on September 29, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 29: Dominic Smith #22 of the New York Mets celebrates after hitting a walk-off 3-run home run in the bottom of the eleventh inning against the Atlanta Braves at Citi Field on September 29, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images) /
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5 best walk-off home runs of the 2019 MLB season

Matt Chapman caps off the A’s epic comeback – WPA: 0.85

On a Thursday night in June, the Athletics were down three runs to begin the final inning, but thanks to a bomb to left-center by third baseman Matt Chapman, Oakland wins a big game at home.

The situation: Oakland’s Jurickson Profar put the Athletics on the board in the 5th inning with a solo homer off the Rays’ Charlie Morton, but other than Profar’s homer Morton was dealing as he struck out six in 6.1 innings and allowed just four hits.

The Rays’ Tommy Pham answered back by belting a home run in the top of the 6th, plus two singles off Blake Treinen (from the Rays’ Avisail Garcia and Ji-Man Choi) in the top of the 9th, followed by a sac-bunt from Willy Adames later in the inning (off Ryan Butcher), put the Rays up 4-1 going into the bottom of the 9th inning.

Oakland’s Robbie Grossman comes to the plate to face the Rays’ Diego Castillo with Athletics at just a 9% win expectancy. Castillo walks Grossman on five pitches, then throws a wild pitch to the next batter (Stephen Piscotty), allowing Grossman to advance to second. Piscotty grounds out to the SS/3B hole, freezing Grossman at second and putting the A’s first out on the board. Profar comes up next, with just an 11% win expectancy, and forces an eight-pitch walk, before Beau Taylor comes to the plate and strikes out looking.

The Athletics are down to their last out, with runners on first and second, down by three runs. Marcus Semien steps up to face Castillo and on the third pitch of the at-bat, blasts a single through the SS/2B hole, scoring Grossman and advancing Profar to third (plus Semien is able to advance to second on the throw). The Athletics have a chance with Chapman coming to the dish as the winning run, but their win expectancy is stuck at just 15% (because… 2 outs).

With Profar on third and Semien on second, Chapman takes the first pitch from Castillo for a ball before Castillo throws an 87-mph breaking ball at the very bottom of the zone. Chapman guesses right and squares the pitch up, sending the ball way over the left-center wall, sending the roughly 12,000 fans in attendance in a frenzy. Oakland wins 5-4.