Five best walk-off home runs of the 2019 MLB season
By Clint Manry
5 best walk-off home runs of the 2019 MLB season
Dominic Smith returns with a gift in Game 162 – WPA: 0.91
In his first at-bat since July 26, Dominic Smith comes through for the NY Mets in the final game of the season, belting a one of the best walk-off home runs of the season.
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The situation: The Braves and Mets were matched up at Citi Field on September 29 for Game 162, with a surprisingly large crowd on hand (31,523). After one frame the Mets had a 3-1 advantage against Mike Soroka and the Bravos, after a sac-fly by Robinson Cano and a two-run homer off the bat of J.D. Davis.
In the 4th, the Braves struck with a two-run home run from Triple-A star, Rafael Ortega, as he took New York’s Noah Syndergaard deep to right field, scoring Matt Joyce in the process and tying the game at three apiece.
The Mets’ Joe Panik homered in the 8th, off Shane Greene; and the Braves’ Adeiny Hechavarria did the same off Paul Sewald later in the inning, as both teams traded blows and went to extra innings.
However, in the top of the 11th, the Braves put two runs on the board as Hechavarria homered again, as well as Adam Duvall, both off of Walker Lockett. With the Braves up 6-4, it looked as if Atlanta was set to cap off the 2019 MLB season on a positive note, by beating a division opponent to end the year.
The Mets came to bat in the bottom of the 11th with a 9% chance to win and the bottom of the order due up. Luis Guillorme was up first, facing the Braves Jerry Blevins. Guillorme worked six pitches from Blevins before slapping a single to left, improving the Mets win expectancy to a still slim 18%. Tomas Nido came to bat next but struck out looking on four pitches, dropping New York’s win expectancy back down to 10%.
The Braves replaced Blevins with reliever Anthony Swarzak, who immediately surrendered a Wilson Ramos single through the 3B/SS hole, moving Guillorme up to second. The Mets’ Rene Rivera came to the plate next and struck out swinging, stranding Guillorme at second and giving New York two outs. The Mets’ chances to win were down to just 9%, as the Braves went back to the ‘pen to bring in the young Grant Dayton.
Dominic Smith, who had been out for the last 2 months, was making his return from injury. Smith was up against a terrible situation, down two runs with just one out to work with. Making his first plate appearance since July 26, it was all up to him.
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Dayton’s first pitch to Smith was a ball, but the second one was a 91-mph fastball at the top of the zone. Smith, full extended, turned on Dayton’s second pitch and drove it just over the right-center wall for one of the best walk-off home runs to end the game — Mets win 7-6. The Mets went from a 9% chance to win to winners in mere seconds, as Smith ended the Mets’ 2019 MLB season at 10 games above .500 (86-76).