MLB: The most valued third baseman of 2019

Rating the 10 MLB players who produced the most value for their team in 2019 while playing third base. Slugging, on-base, and defense are considered.

In baseball, we’re pretty much obsessed with the concept of value. We apply a plethora of often exotic statistical approaches to measure it: batting average, slugging, home runs, WAR, OPS+, Defensive Runs Saved, Weighted Runs Created…the list goes on.

The one factor we generally overlook in all these assessments is the most meaningfully value-oriented of all of them: salary. What, precisely, was the player paid – relative to all other players tasked with doing what he was doing – and how much of that pay did he “earn?”

The rating system that follows corrects that oversight. Based on 2019 performance, it measures which players were the most “valuable” as judged by their on-field production relative to their salary. And let it be noted here that we are limiting our focus to on-field value only. Some players, megastars, are paid based largely on factors unrelated to on-field performance, their drawing power at the gate, their celebrity, their endorsement/promotional potential being among them. Those factors, while acknowledged as real, are not part of this discussion.

Since different positions require different skills, the standard for determining production will vary depending on position…although for position players there will always be an offensive component.

Today we’re looking at third base, one of the most offensive-oriented positions on the field. Our system reflects that, with 60 percent of value determined by the player’s slugging average. An additional 20 percent is based on on-base average, giving 80 percent of the weight to the offensive side of performance.

The final 20 percent is divided equally between fielding percentage and innings played, participation always being relevant to some degree.

Those with even a passing familiarity with the current third base situation will recognize that three players predominate. Those three are Nolan Arenado, Alex Bregman and Anthony Rendon. They’ll hold down the top three spots in our ranking as well.

But third base is a particularly deep position, and there is no greater evidence of this than the fact that Matt Chapman, the All-Star third baseman of the Oakland Athletics, can’t break into the top 10. With a value of $7.151 million, just $49,000 short of the top 10, Chapman only rates 11th on our list.

Largely due to its offensive nature, third base is a position where teams are willing to spend very big. The average salary of the 33 third basemen who qualify for consideration was $6.657 million. Nine of them earned more than $12 million in 2019, topped by Arenado at $26 million. At the other end of the scale, 14 earned less than $1 million, 11 of them basically playing for the minimum.

For our four criteria, here are the other group averages: a player rating at the average in each group would then be worth $6.657 million.

• Slugging average: .471
• On-base average: .339
• Fielding average: .964
• Innings: 1,060

We begin with the guy who edged out Chapman

MLB: The most valued third baseman of 2019

10. Gio Urshela, Yankees, $7.2 million value; $569,000 salary

The Yankees purchased Urshela in August of 2018 from the Blue Jays. Based purely on his record to that point, the pickup defied explanation; across parts of three seasons with Cleveland and Toronto, Urshela was a career .230 hitter with a total of eight home runs and no discernible position.

Whatever the Yanks saw in Urshela, it was prescient. Inheriting third base when Miguel Andujar fell to an injury, Urshela ran with the chance to the tune of a .314 average, 21 home runs and a 133 OPS+. The third base job is now Urshela’s, and nobody cares much about what the Yanks do with Andujar.

His .435 slugging average, eighth-best at the position, is worth $4.418 million in on-field contribution, and his .355 on-base average delivers an additional $1.394 million.

Defensively, Urshela was no genius in 2019, his .954 fielding average ranking only 26th among the group. That adds only $659,000. Given the late start to his season, Urshela missed 30 games, reducing his playing time to 985 innings. That produces a final $618,000 in value.

Urshela is entering his age 27 season in 2020. That’s old for a pre-arb player, which Urshela is. But if you‘re the Yankees, that makes him even more attractive because he is entering his prime seasons at an absolute bargain rate.

MLB: The most valued third baseman of 2019

9. Kris Bryant, Cubs, $7.356 million value; $12.9 million salary

To understand the reason underlying all the antipathy in the Cubs front office concerning the retention of Bryant, it is only necessary to look at the trend lines governing his salary and his production.

Pending the outcome of a grievance filed by Bryant’s agent, he is expected to be an arbitration 3 entering 2020, probably getting close to $20 million. For purposes of comparison, the typical arb 3 can probably expect to earn half that amount at best. Two years ago the Cubs paid Bryant $1.05 million, rising to $10.85 million in 2018 and to $12.9 million in 2019.

Now about Bryant’s value. Based on OPS+, it was 142 in 2017, falling to 121 in 2017 and recovering only to 131 last season. His 6.1 WAR fell to 1.9 before partially recovering to 3.6

In sum since 2017 Bryant’s salary rose by $11.85 million while his production declined by 2.5 WAR. That’s why he’s on the market.

About his value…his .521 slugging average was only 10th best at the position, translating to $4.418 million value. His excellent .382 on-base average, third-best at the position, added $1.5 million, but his poor .953 fielding average and so-so 1,240 innings nearly cost him a spot in the overall top 10.

For the nearly $20 million he’s likely to cost in 2020, the Cubs figure they deserve better than the ninth-best third baseman in the game.

MLB: The most valued third baseman of 2019

8. Josh Donaldson, Braves, $7.391 million value; $23 million salary

Donaldson is the personification of the premium that teams place on having a hard-hitting third baseman as a lineup centerpiece.

After delivering on-field contributions that valued out at just under $7.4 million for Atlanta in 2019, Donaldson has been reported to be weighing offers in the neighborhood of four years and $100 million this winter. The teams in that hunt, reportedly including but not limited to the Nationals and Twins, understand that Donaldson can’t recover anything approaching that dollar value of production…and they don’t care.

Following an injury-plagued 2018, Donaldson re-established his health and his capabilities with 37 home runs, 94 RBIs and a .259 average. Based on the positional averages, his .521 slugging average matched Bryant at $4.418 million, 10th best. His .379 on-base average, slightly worse than Bryant, added $1.488 million to his value.

Donaldson finished ahead of Bryant due to his edge in the fielding-related categories. His .969 fielding average 14th, a bit above the .963 positional average. He also played more than Bryant, taking the field for 57 additional innings.

Since Donaldson is entering his age 34 season, it’s possible that teams bidding on him are in for a letdown. Of the 33 players in this group, the average age entering next season will be just 28.4, only nine will be over 30, and only Justin Turner in Los Angeles will be older than Donaldson. Of the 10 best, the average age will be 27 and only Donaldson will be over age 30.

MLB: The most valued third baseman of 2019

7. Miguel Sano, Twins, $7.423 million value; $2.65 million salary

A .247 batting average doesn’t sound like much of a credential, but most of Sano’s other numbers were attention-getting. He delivered 34 home runs and a .923 OPS, those figures adding up to a career-best 138 OPS+.

His big drawing back, a consistent mark against Sano, was playing time. He missed nearly 60 games, the fourth successive season he has failed to start 45 or more of his team’s games.

When he plays, Sano is an offensive force at an offensive position. His .576 slugging average ranked fourth among all third basemen and valued out at $4.884 million. That .346 on-base average generated another $1.358 million.

The remainder of Sano’s resume isn’t up to snuff. His .926 fielding average – based on 17 errors in 230 chances – was the position’s worst, a full 10 percentage points below the next worst. Sano’s defense generated only $640,000 in value. And since he missed so many games, Sano played only 859 innings, nearly 200 fewer than the positional average. That brought just $540,000 in value.

It will come as no surprise that what the Twins have in Sano is an excellent hitter who plays an indifferent third base when he plays at all. You can go a long way at third just smiting the ball – that skill has carried Sano to the seventh spot among all who play the position.

MLB: The most valued third baseman of 2019

5. Rafael Devers, Red Sox, $7.631 million value; $615,000 salary

So many Boston players earned such exorbitant salaries while delivering so many sub-par performances last season that it may be easy to overlook the two or three who actually contributed serious value.

Despite the team’s mediocre 84-78 third-place finish, the left side of Boston’s infield – Devers and shortstop Xander Bogaerts – ranked among the best at their positions.

In his age 22 season, Devers batted .311 in 156 games with 90 extra-base hits and 115 RBIs, so you could rule him out as part of the problem. His 133 OPS+ set him apart, and his .555 slugging percentage ranked sixth among all third basemen. It was worth more than $4.7 million.

At .361, his on-base average would not be described as elite. Still, it was the position’s ninth-best, 20 percentage points above the positional average.

If Devers needed work anywhere, it was with the glove. He misplayed 22 of his 431 chances, a .949 fielding percentage that stood just 29th among the 33 third basemen and valued out to only $656,000.

But Devers made up for that shortcoming with effort. He was on the field for 1,355 innings the second-largest total of any third baseman, creating a final $852,000 in value. In tandem with his other numbers, that was enough to slot him comfortably among the game’s five best at his position in 2019.

MLB: The most valued third baseman of 2019

4. Eugenio Suarez, Reds, $7.738 million value; $7.285 million salary

Expectations are building for the 2020 Reds to make a serious run at the NL Central, and Suarez is a principal reason why. In his fourth full season, he has blossomed into a serious mid-order threat.

In 159 games during 2019, Suarez hit 49 home runs and enjoyed his second consecutive 100-plus RBI season. In deference to his power, opposing pitchers gifted him with 70 walks, although Suarez has not yet closed all of the holes in his swing. He also struck out a league-leading 189 times.

His .572 slugging average ranked fifth at the position, generating $4.85 million in value. His .358 on-base average ranked 10th and enhanced his value by another $1.4 million.

Like Sano, Devers and some of the game’s other elite sluggers at this position, Suarez still has glovework to do. His .954 fielding average ranked only 25th and translated to just $659,000 in on-field value. But the 1,309 innings he played helped offset that, equating to a final $823,000.

For the moment, his fielding issues leave Suarez about $200,000 short of the elite cohort of Arenado, Bregman and Rendon. Given that all three also are major threats with the bat, he may never catch up to them.

But he is right now a strong enough offensive force to lift the Reds out of their usual fourth place spot in their division, and maybe contend for the NL Central title.

MLB: The most valued third baseman of 2019

3. Nolan Arenado, Rockies, $7.938 million value, $26 million salary

Only about $200,000 separates the position’s big three, so the differences among them are not substantial. Arenado deservedly has the reputation as the best of the bunch in the field, but also as the weakest power stroke. In the end, that’s why he winds up third.

Not that Arenado understates his offensive performance. He produced 74 extra-base hits in 2019, 41 of them home runs, and added 118 RBIs with a .315 average. His 129  OPS+ and 5.7 WAR would look good on any resume.

His .583 slugging average did, however, rank third at the position, and given the positional priority on slugging that pretty much locked in his rank. Compared with the average third baseman, it was worth $4.944 million.

He supplemented that with a .379 on-base average that ranked fourth – Bryant also got ahead of him – and equated to another $1.488 million.

Three third basemen did beat Arenado’s .980 fielding percentage but none of them approached either the offensive credentials or the playing time to approach his overall value. For Arenado’s part, his glove earned him an additional $677,000.

And since there was rarely a good reason not to write his name in the middle of the Colorado lineup, Arenado logged 1,320 innings of playing time, fifth at the position. That was good for a final $830,000.

Arenado’s fielding and playing time numbers were both better than the two men ahead of him, but given the positional weight accorded to slugging was not enough to lift him above third on the list.

MLB: The most valued third baseman of 2019

2. Anthony Rendon, Nationals, $8.153 million value; $18.8 million salary

With players of the caliber of Arenado, Rendon and Bregman, it’s understood that their salary reflects their value on the open market as opposed to their value on the playing field. The differences between those two numbers are real and often substantial, and they explain why Rendon could command $26 million to $38 million annually through 2026 from the Angels despite the physical impossibility of returning any amount approximating that much in actual on-field value.

What Rendon did deliver to Washington in 2019 was a World Series winner, the translatable value of which is incalculable. With 81 extra-base hits, 34 of them home runs, and a league-leading 126 RBIs, he fashioned a 1.010 OPS that carried him to third place in the Most Valuable Player Award voting between the National League’s two icons Cody Bellinger and Christian Yelich.

In his head-to-head contest with Bregman, Rendon actually had a slight edge in the most important category, slugging. His .598 average was the position’s best, amounting to $5.071 million in real value. His .412 on-base average ranked second behind Bregman, adding $1.618 million to his value.

In the field, Rendon had marginally the better of it. His .969 fielding average ranked only 13th among third basemen, a few points above the position average, and good for $669,000. He played 1,265 innings, 10th best at the position, adding a final $795,000 to his worth.

That left him a mere $13,000 behind Bregman. How small an amount is that? Had Rendon played 20 more innings and made one fewer error, he would be ranked first on this list.

MLB: The most valued third baseman of 2019

1. Alex Bregman, Astros, $8.166 million value; $640,000 salary

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You can’t become the game’s best third baseman by playing shortstop, but you can do so despite playing shortstop.

Thanks to injuries that sidelined Carlos Correa for a substantial portion of the season, Bregman moved from third to short for 65 games and acquitted himself admirably. Still, his 99 games and 806 innings at his usual position ratified his status as primarily a third sacker.

Bregman’s credentials included a .296 batting average supplemented by 41 home runs, 80 extra-base hits, a  league-leading 119 bases on balls and a rapturous 162 OPS+. His .592 slugging average trailed only Rendon and equated to $5.02 million in actual value.

Those 119 bases on balls helped Bregman make up the deficiency. His .423 on-base average led the position, generating $1.661 million in value and narrowing the gap between his own value and Rendon’s to a mere $8,000 when they left the plate.

His .966 fielding average at third, virtually matching Rendon’s .969, was worth $667,000.

Bregman made up the difference in playing time. His 1,301 innings – the product of playing 10 more games than Rendon – translated to $818,000 in value and created his final $13,000 advantage.

Realistically, given Bregman’s $640,500 salary, the value difference was substantially greater. That is, however, about to change. The Astros this winter signed Bregman for amounts ranging from $13 million to a potential $30 million through 2024.