MLB: The most valuable left fielders of 2019

Playing a premier offensive position, these 10 MLB left fielders stood out among their peers

In MLB, we’re pretty much obsessed with the concept of value. We apply a plethora of often exotic statistical approaches to measure it: batting average, slugging, home runs, WAR, OPS+, Defensive Runs Saved, Weighted Runs Created…the list  goes on.

The one factor we generally overlook in all these assessments is the most meaningfully value-oriented of all of them: salary. What, precisely, was the player paid – relative to all other players tasked with doing what he was doing – and how much of that pay did he “earn?”

The rating system that follows corrects that oversight. Based on 2019 performance, it measures which players were the most “valuable” as judged by their on-field production relative to their salary. And let it be noted here that we are limiting our focus to on-field value only. Some players, mega stars, are paid based largely on factors unrelated to on-field performance, their drawing power at the gate, their celebrity, their endorsement/promotional potential being among them. Those factors, while acknowledged as real, are not part of this discussion.

Since different positions require different skills, the standard for determining production will vary depending on position…although for position players there will always be an offensive component.

Today we’re looking at left fielders. A century ago, Hall of Fame manager John McGraw dismissed the defensive importance of the position by asserting that the most important characteristic of a left fielder was the ability to hit .330.” What else do they have to do?” McGraw wondered.

Our formula was measuring value at left field largely follows McGraw’s thesis. A full three-quarters of it is determined by WAR, with the remaining one-quarter divided between range (10 percent) and playing time (15 percent).

However cynical McGraw’s view was, the fact is that left field talent in 2019 was spread more thinly than at any of the positions we have examined to date. From a dollar value standpoint, that translates to a nearly $6 million spread between the most valued left fielder and the 10th most valued. Relatively speaking, it made a big difference in 2019 who you had playing left field.

This, by the way, was even more true of the other outfield positions, which we’ll look at shortly.

Here are the positional averages for the 33 players who qualified for consideration at left field during the 2019 MLB season:

Salary: $4.578 million

WAR: 1.318

Range per nine innings: 1.787 chances

Innings: 856.636

10. Brian Goodwin, Los Angeles Angels, $6.077 million value; $584,000 salary

Goodwin’s story is predicated on Justin Upton’s story. Injured running into a wall in March, Upton missed the MLB season’s first two and one-half months, then played poorly when he returned. So poorly in fact that he ranks at the bottom of the list of 33 left fielders, a tough pill for the Angels to swallow given his $18 million salary.

Anyway, Upton’s injury gave Goodwin a chance at regular playing time, and if he didn’t smack that opportunity out of the park, he at least established his competence. Goodwin, picked up on waivers from Kansas City following the 2018 season,  batted .262 with 17 home runs in 458 plate appearances. All those figures were better than Upton, by the way, and he did so for pennies more than the league minimum.

His 2.1 WAR worked out to $5.118 million in on-field value, close to 10 times what he was actually paid.

Defensively, Goodwin was just average. He had 1.81 chances per nine innings, 16th best at the position, valuing at $464,000. Despite his split-time status with Upton, he managed to get in a representative 925 innings, ranking 13th overall and valuing out to $495,000

Since the Angels remain on the hook to Upton for $21 million to $28 million through 2022, the question is what becomes of Goodwin? For the moment, the plan is to shift him to right field,  where the incumbent, Kole Calhoun, has been lost to free agency.

9. Marcel Ozuna, St. Louis Cardinals, $6.711 million value; $12.25 million salary

Ozuna’s reputation is developing along the classic MLB left fielder’s lines. He doesn’t run very well, his arm stinks and everybody’s becoming suspicious of his glove. If he doesn’t hit, people begin to talk.

They talked enough in St. Louis that when Ozuna hit free agency at season’s end, the Cardinals expressed substantial interest in moving on, notwithstanding two salient facts: 1. The Cardinals won the NL  Central with Ozuna in left field, and 2. In two seasons with the Cards, he averaged 26 home runs, 88 RBIs and a 107 OPS+.

In 2019, however, Ozuna lost 40 points on his batting average, an attention-getter at left field. Ironically, he became much more of a power hitter – usually a good trait at the position – producing 11 more extra base hits and seeing his slugging average climb by 40 points.  No matter: in combination with his reputation for defensive spottiness, that batting average decline sent him onto the open market, where he remains as this is written.

Ozuna’s 2.2 WAR equated to $5.362 million in offensive value. His 1.5 chance range ranked toward the bottom of his group, amounting to just $384,000 in defensive worth. At least Ozuna showed up: at 1,112 innings he ranked sixth overall, justifying $595,000 for playing time.

8. Kyle Schwarber, Chicago Cubs, $6.665 million value; $3.39 million salary

This is blasphemy, but if Schwarber could find a way to add 80 points to his batting average, he’d be Ted Williams.

In every other way, the players are similar. Neither was respected as a fielder or for their arm or speed, but both showed solid plate discipline, and both had front-rank sock.

Schwarber’s 2019 included a .250 batting average that was distinctly un-Williams-like. The distinction largely lay in his failure-to-contact rate, which included 156 whiffs in 529 official at bats.

At the same time, Schwarber did draw 70 bases on balls, driving his on base average to nearly 90 points higher than his batting average. About those home runs: He hit a team-leading 38 of them, the whole of his offensive line reducing to a 2.3 WAR. With the stick, it made him a $5.606 million player.

Defensively, Schwarber was sub-par, although probably not as sub-par as the image of him would suggest. He accepted 1.72 chances per game, slightly below the positional average and translating to $441,000 in value.

As a constant home run threat, there was rarely a good reason for Joe Maddon to strike Schwarber’s name from the lineup. That involved him in 1,157 innings of work, fourth best at the position and valuing at a final $619,000.

To really help the Cubs in 2020, Schwarber needs to complete his offensive maturation. The home runs and walks are already there; he needs to turn more strikeouts into base hits.

6. Joc Pederson, Los Angeles Dodgers, $8.883 million value; $5.0 million salary

The similarities between Pederson and Schwarber, two spots behind him in this ranking, are noticeable. Both batted around .250 and both hit more than 35 home runs last season. Pederson struck out and walked less and also got fewer hits than Schwarber, but that was in large measure due to the fact that the Dodgers platooned him.

He did manage to generate a 3.3 WAR, about 1 WAR higher than Schwarber, and worth $8.043 million in on-field value. That alone justified his ranking among the position’s top 5.

Defensively, Pederson was nothing special. His  1.63 range per nine innings only valued out to $418,000, 24th best at the position. It’s a good thing for Pederson that left fielders are primarily paid to hit. The platooning manager Dave Roberts did with him reduced his innings to 790, just 21st best and worth only $422,000.

Like Schwarber and Ozuna, then, Pederson is a left fielder in the John McGraw stripe: a guy who’s paid to hit while spending his leisure time as uneventfully as possible in the outfield.

Pederson will become a free agent after 2020, but as long as he delivers 30 homers a season – and unless somebody discovers a vital defensive responsibility in left field – he has a reasonable chance of producing at a level that’s worth what he’s being paid.

5. Mike Tauchman, New York Yankees, $9.583 million value; $557,000 salary

Like Gio Urshela, it took a series of injuries to open up playing time for Tauchman, but when that playing window did open he leaped through it.

The major beneficiary of the injury that sidelined Giancarlo Stanton for much of 2019, Tauchman batted .277 before himself succumbing to a leg injury in September. Due to platooning or in-game shifts, his 694 innings of outfield work   — two-thirds of it in left – only translated to 296 MLB at bats, making his 3.6 WAR stand out that much more.

It equated to $8.774 million in on-field value, the fourth best performance at the position.

Tauchman ranked only 22nd in range at 1.71 chances per nine innings. That was good for an additional $438,000 in earned value. His limited playing time, just 25th best at the position,  accorded Tauchman a final $371,000 in value.

Tauchman’s problem is what happens in 2020. Stanton is back, and understandably the Yankees have his $26 million salary penned in ahead of Tauchman’s projected $600,000 or so in left. With Aaron Hicks and Aaron Judge designated for center and right, the best Tauchman can probably hope for is whatever time accrues to a fourth outfielder, and that assumes he’s ahead of veteran Brett Gardner.

Tauchman’s two other options are a trade – unlikely assuming the Yankees recognize what they have in him – or another injury.

4. Tommy Pham, Tampa Bay Rays, $9.953 million value; $4.1 million salary

Largely overlooked during his first four seasons in St. Louis, Pham emerged following a mid-2018 trade to Tampa and by last year was a stalwart in the heart of the Rays’ playoff lineup. So much so that it came as a surprise to a lot of Rays backers when Tampa Bay traded him this winter to San Diego for Hunter Renfroe.

Pham’s weakness is versatility. He’s a hitter, as evinced by his .273 average, 56 extra base hits and 119 OPS+ rating. That translated to a 3.7 WAR, the position’s fourth best, that was worth $9.018 million in on-field value.

He showed little range, making just 1.37 plays for the Rays in 2019. Among all measured left fielders, only Atlanta’s Austin Riley made fewer. His range only added $351,000 to Pham’s value.

He did log 1,093 innings, the position’s seventh best total and good for a final $584,000.

The Padres are counting on Pham to do precisely what he did in Tampa: Play left field inauspiciously and hit the heck out of the ball. He’s a second-year arbitration eligible player who projects to earn about $8 million in 2020. That will bring his salary approximately in line with his production.

3. Bryan Reynolds, Pittsburgh Pirates, $10.564 million value; $569,000 salary

Since he began 2019 in the minors, it’s an accomplishment that Reynolds finishes as the third most valuable left fielder in the game. In an absolutely desultory Pirate season, he was a revelation.

For much of his rookie season, Reynolds made a serious run at the National League batting title, carrying a .335 average into September before finishing at .314, equaling the league’s sixth best.

His .377 on base average and .503 slugging percentage showed he was more than a singles hitter, translating to a 3.9 WAR. The only drawback on his freshman resume was 121 strikeouts, but that was a drawback on almost everybody’s resume in 2019.

His offense totaled $9.905 million in on-field value in 2019. Reynolds was also more than competent defensively, with 1.93 chances per nine innings, good for another $495,000. At 1,055 innings played, he earned a final $564,000 for showing up.

On a team featuring players of the reputation of Josh Bell and Starling Marte, it is a measure of Reynolds’ performance than he was Pittsburgh’s most valuable player in 2019, that value amounting to about $3 million more than Bell at first base. Bell, by the way, plays a far-better paying position, a fact that should have inflated his value relative to Reynolds. It didn’t matter.

2. Michael Brantley, Houston Astros, $12.142 million value; $16 million salary

The Astros took a chance on Brantley when everybody else shied away from him due to his injury history. Signing him for two seasons at $16 million apiece, they got a vital piece of their American League pennant winning lineup.

Brantley rewarded Houston’s faith in him with a2019 performance that was reminiscent of his prime.  He hit .311 in 637 plate appearances with 22 home runs, 90 RBIs and a .372 on base average, all of those numbers representing personal bests since at least 2015.

His 4.6 WAR was easily the position’s second-best, amounting to $11.211 million in on-field value when compared with the positional averages.

Brantley has never been known for his defense. In 2019 he accepted 1.53 chances per nine innings, only 28th best among his peers and good for just $392,000 in value. His reliability, measured by 1,007 innings of work in the field, added a final $538,000.

As a highly paid veteran at an offensive position, it’s no surprise that Brantley’s $16 million salary far exceeds his actual on-field value. In that respect, he’s typical of the game’s salary structure, which tends to reward seniority as opposed to actual value. Still, there’s nothing wrong with more than $12 million in value.

1. Juan Soto, Washington Nationals, $12.638 million value; $578,000 salary

Soto was decidedly the most valuable MLB left fielder in 2019, and there’s no reason to expect that designation to change in the near future.

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Begin with his 34 home runs, which ranks among the position’s best, and his .949 OPS. That ranked No. 1 among left fielders and among the 10 best in all of baseball. It was good enough to draw Soto some MVP votes.

His 4.7 WAR edged out Brantley as the position’s best, and valued out at $11.445 million. Defensively, he was competent if not great, with a 1.85 range per nine innings that ranked 11th for the position. Add $474,000 in value.

Since Soto’s bat never gave Dave Martinez a reason to remove him from the Nationals lineup, it’s no surprise that he led all MLB left fielders in playing time with 1,327 innings. Score a final $709,000 for Soto.

The loss this winter of Anthony Rendon, especially coming on the heels of the loss of Bryce Harper, makes Soto the offensive face of the Nationals entering 2020. The numbers confirm that he’s up to it. Only four players at any position generated more actual on-field value – based on the demands of their position – that did Soto playing left field for Washington in 2019.

Consider also that he did that while drawing only a bit more than the MLB minimum. Soto’s pay will certainly go up quickly, and at the rate he’s generating value he’ll deserve it.